Jaguars Titans Spread Line and Betting Predictions NFL Week 13

I don’t think there was anyone sadder than me to see the Rusty Smith experiment fail so quickly and completely. There were just so many things to like about the rookie: His name (“I once knew a horse named Rusty. No offense” – Cosmo Kramer), the fact that he looks like a human pez dispenser, and the hope that he would make Jeff Fisher look like a genius for wanting to get rid of Vince Young. Unfortunately, one thing that was definitely not to like about Smith turned out to be his ability to play football. He threw for three picks and the Titans were shut out by probably the league’s friendliest defense. It sounds like Kerry Collins will be ready to go by Sunday, and he gets another of the league’s easiest defenses in Jacksonville. Any time you are thrilled that you get to start Kerry Collins, things are grim, but that is the situation facing the Titans. Shockingly enough, thanks to the Colts not playing like, well, the Colts, Tennessee are only a game out of first place in the AFC South. A win here would put them in pretty good position to make a run at a playoff spot, which is rather unbelievable given the way they played last week. Chris Johnson, last season’s leading rusher, was held to 5 yards. I think even I could get 5 rushing yards against Houston. With Randy Moss being pretty a non-factor since his arrival in Tennessee, it’s safe to say that the entire Titans offense could use a spark. Fortunately for them, a game against the Jaguars secondary is the remedy for most flailing offenses. The Titans know that they need to win this game to stay in the thick of the playoff picture, and are sure to pull out all the stops at home.

Jacksonville earned at least a little bit of street cred following their game with the Giants last week. Yes, they lost, but they were competitive throughout, and until the 4th quarter it looked like they were going to pull out a victory. Thanks to the drubbing Indy sustained at the hands of the Chargers, Jacksonville remains tied with the Colts for 1st in the AFC South at 6-5, ahead on the head to head tiebreak. While not to many are believers in the Jags as a legitimate playoff threat, there is no denying that Jack Del Rio’s squad has been significantly better than many were anticipating heading into this year. A lot of the credit belongs to David Garrard, who has really turned things around after a shaky start to the year. Garrard has thrown for 8 touchdowns in his last 4 games (and rushed for 2), and has managed to do so without a legitimate first receiver. Mike Sims-Walker has had more downs than ups this year, and while Mike Thomas’ emergence is a pleasant surprise, his lack of height prevents him from being a top red zone target. Another reason for Jacksonville’s spot in the standings is the play of Maurice Jones-Drew. The pint-sized rusher is a threat in both the rushing and passing game, as he proved in the Jags’ last second win over Cleveland, in which Jones-Drew turned a simple screen pass into a 75 yard gain ending on the 1 yard line. He has now posted over 100 rushing yards in 4 straight games, which includes 113 last week against a stingy Giants defense. If Jacksonville is to win this game and keep their unexpected playoff hopes alive, they will need a similarly strong performance from MJD.

This divisional game should be far more competitive than the Monday night stinker from week 6 that saw the Titans roll to a 30-3 win. Firstly, Jacksonville looks far more cohesive then they did back then, and Tennessee is without a real quarterback. This means the Jags can commit extra defensive players to stopping Chris Johnson, and force Kerry Collins to beat them through the air. While Collins is a veteran and miles ahead of Rusty Smith, he is far from a terrifying prospect for opposing defenses. With that said, Jacksonville’s defense is in no position to appear cocky, as their pass defense ranks 5th last against the pass, allowing 261.1 yards per game. This also means that if Randy Moss is ever going to do something, it will probably be in this game. Tennessee’s defense is pretty is solid if not spectacular, and Garrard is going to have be careful, as the Titans are 4th in the league with 15 interceptions. Both teams will probably need to lean on their running backs in an effort to control the tempo of the game.

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Jaguars vs Titans Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
@ Tennessee Titans -3.5

Game Total:

Over (-110)
43.5
Under (-110)

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Jaguars vs Titans Betting Predictions/Picks for Week 13

Spread Prediction: (TOP PLAY): The line seems to be giving the Titans too much credit for their week 6 win against Jacksonville. But as we know, things change in a hurry in the NFL, and week 6 might as well have been 2 seasons ago. Jacksonville have won 3 of their last 4, and were narrowly beaten by an impressive Giants team. Meanwhile, the Titans failed to score a point last week against one of the worst defenses in the league, and their quarterback situation is in a state of complete disrepair. Yes, Chris Johnson should bounce back from last week’s performance, but he hasn’t been the dominant figure that he was last year. The Jags are one of the hardest teams to predict on a week to week basis, but they do seem to have things more together than the Titans, and they realize that a win here would go a long way in prolonging their playoff dreams. The Jags are 4-0 ATS in their last 4, and 4-1 ATS following an ATS win. Meanwhile, the Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4, and 1-5 ATS in their previous 6 AFC contests. I like the Jags to hang around in this one and come up with a straight up win.

Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (TOP PLAY)

Game Total Prediction: Jacksonville’s defense is one of the softest in the league, but I’m just not sure that the Titans have the firepower at the moment to exploit it too much. In addition, Tennessee’s strength lies directly with their defense, so the Jags won’t be putting up points at will either. With both teams needing to focus on their ground game to move the ball downfield, I expect long, clock-eating drives to occur on both sides. That’s usually a recipe for a low scoring game. In their last 5 meetings, the Under is 4-1. In divisional matchups for the Titans, the Under is 6-0. There is nothing to suggest that this will be a high scoring affair, as the conservative game plans that each coach will run with should ensure a result of Under in this one.

Pick: Under 43.5

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