It was an extremely successful Sunday of Week 2 for myself yesterday at The Sports Geek. I managed to go 3-0 with my picks and am looking to close out one of my better weeks in recent memory with a perfect slate of games on Monday night. After a sluggish Week 1 outing against the Bills, Andrew Luck and the Colts will be out to prove the hype was warranted in 2015, as they host a new-look Jets team that fared very well in their opening match.
The Jets were better than expected last week in a complete team victory. But facing an angry Colts team that feels embarrassed after Week 1 in Buffalo may not be their best route. Andrew Luck did not fare well by any stretch, but the Bills have an excellent defense and can make many elite talents look unlike themselves. It should be an intriguing finish to the week as the Jets battle for respectability and the Colts battle to earn the respect of the other top-dogs in the league. Read on below for a full game breakdown and an official selection.
Jets vs. Colts Betting Odds:
New York Jets +7 (-110)
@ Indianapolis Colts -7 (-110)
Over 47 (-110)
Under 47 (-110)
Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv
Jets vs. Colts Pick:
Before delving too deep into analysis, it goes without saying that it’s a big mistake to overreact to Week 1 results. The Colts definitely looked bad in Buffalo but are a vastly different team in the dome at home. It is going to be a raucous atmosphere that greets them Monday evening and look for Luck and his teammates to fully rally behind that as they ready for a bounce-back effort.
Frank Gore and the Colts’ run game got virtually nothing going against a tough defensive front from Buffalo, and unfortunately for them that should hold true again Monday night. Where the Jets do have some weakness though is through the air. New York doesn’t boast a very dominating pass rush, and Luck should have more time and space in the pocket. Add in the fact that with Antonio Cromartie out, and Darelle Revis clearly declining, the likes of T.Y. Hilton (if he plays), Donte Moncrief, and Andre Johnson could all be in for big outings.
On the other side of the football, it certainly is quite the drop-off going from discussing Andrew Luck to Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Harvard grad got fortunate in his opening match-up in Week 1, but the step-up to face a motivated Colts group will likely prove to be too much for the Jets and their mediocre quarterback. You can’t really trust him in a shootout against Luck so look for New York to establish a solid run game and hope that keeps the chains moving early and often. Chris Ivory was very good last week and remains a talented back, but there just aren’t enough threats for Ivory to get the space he needs. The Colts can easily clamp down on Fitzpatrick and Brandon Marshall, especially when you’ve got Vontae Davis lurking in the secondary. With that in mind, look for Indy to turn the Jets into a pretty one-dimensional offense solely reliant on Chris Ivory. The Colts can load the box and limit his effectiveness.
When you factor in all of these Week 1 overreactions, consider that this line dropped from 9.5 to 7 after the performances of these two teams. That is simply too much. The Jets aren’t going to be a good team this season, while the Colts remain Super Bowl contenders despite how they looked in Week 1. It’s believed T.Y. Hilton will tough it out and suit up Monday night, and with everything in line, it looks right for a solid showing of Indy fireworks under the bright lights of MNF. Luck has historically always bounced right back following a defeat – he’s 13-1 against the spread following a defeat. The Colts aren’t going to start the year 0-2 and should put on a show here. The line is short and roll with a comfortable Indianapolis victory.
PICK = Colts -7 (-110)