Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Pick – NFL Week 6

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will finally meet after this one was pushed back from Thursday night to Monday evening. It’s going to be a weirder kickoff time than we’re accustomed to. The opening kickoff is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. EST, so keep that in mind. A lot of people will still be at work or commuting home at gametime.

The official Monday Night Football game will follow in Arlington between the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys. Athletes are creatures of habit. This start time will throw them off a bit in Buffalo. I’m not complaining, though. I will gladly welcome another Monday doubleheader. Both of these games look like pretty good matchups, too. That’s especially true for this AFC showdown in Orchard Park.

The Bills were shocked last week by a Tennessee Titans team that overcame a coronavirus outbreak to win last Tuesday in Nashville. Part of it had to be the Bills not taking the game seriously and injuries. I will give credit to that effort by the Titans as well, but that was not the Bills at their best. They were ultimately downed by a score of 42-16 for their first loss and worse performance of the season.

It was the first loss for the Bills this season. Despite how poorly they played, the Bills are in the driver’s seat of the AFC East. The New England Patriots have looked like an average team, and are coming off a loss in Foxborough against a vanilla Denver Broncos team on Sunday. The AFC East is the Bills to lose. It has been over two decades since those words have last been spoken.

The Bills were dealing with a couple of important injuries on offense and defense in Week 5. Cornerback Tre’Davious White and wide receiver Josh Brown absences were felt on Tuesday night. For the Bills’ defense to turn a corner, they need a healthy Tre’Davious White on the field.

Meanwhile, offensively, Josh Allen didn’t have a nice complementary piece to target last week. The gameplan was to target Stefon Diggs and not much else. Note that White and Brown both practiced in full on Friday and are likely to play despite the questionable designation. They will need it against this Chiefs team who are coming off a bad loss of their own. Head below for our free Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills pick for October 19, 2020. You can find our prop picks for this game as well.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Week 6 Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Chiefs -5.5 (-115)
  • Bills +5.5 (-105)
Moneyline:

  • Chiefs (-250)
  • Bills (+210)
Total:

  • Over 56.5 (-105)
  • Under 56.5 (-115)

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Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction:

The Chiefs are on the heels of a horrid defensive performance against the Oakland Raiders in Week 5. The Raiders diced the Chiefs up for 40 points in a 40-33 upset at Arrowhead. Derek Carr was on fire with 347 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

He was able to outduel Patrick Mahomes, which isn’t an easy thing to do. Mahomes was in good form with 340 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, the defense was napping and Carr was able to take advantage. The Chiefs’ defense has yielded 22 points per game this season.

Other than the Raiders debacle, the Chiefs have been doing a fine job limiting points. Their best impressive performance was in Week 3 on Monday Night Football versus the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens were held to just 20 points in a 34-20 win, as Lamar Jackson was frustrated thoroughly.

I would look for a better defensive performance from the Chiefs. That said, we should see a crisper Bills’ offense this evening. With Josh Brown likely playing, that should provide Josh Allen and company with an instant boost at home. Allen will certainly appreciate the help, and I think he’s going to get a big hand from his running backs in this one.

The Chiefs have been a floor mat against the run in 2020. While they did contain Lamar, the Chiefs are still allowing 157.6 rushing yards per game. The Texans are the only team in the NFL who’ve been worse at stopping the run. Look for Devin Singletary to put together a nice game in this one. Rookie Zack Moss, who is cleared to play on Monday, should provide a nice lift as well.

They looked like garbage in Nashville, but this is still the same offense who scored 35 points against a good Rams’ defense in Week 3. Allen has passed for 14 touchdowns and 3 interceptions while connecting on 69.31% of his passes. Judging this offense by what they did against the Titans could be a case of recency bias.

Patrick Mahomes is going to make plays in this game. He should be able to get the ball out to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce at a consistent level on Monday night. Having said that, the return of Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White would help greatly for the Bills’ defense. If they play alongside Tremaine Edmunds, the Bills’ defense is a much better unit than we’ve seen recently.

There has been no official word on their status, but both appeared to practice without any limitations on Friday and Saturday. After that dud in all facets of the game against the Titans in
Nashville, expect a response by the Bills in a competitive game on Monday. The points with the home dog is where I’m looking.

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The Bet
BUFFALO BILLS +5.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.