There are two games on Monday in the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills were originally supposed to meet on Thursday Night Football, but we ran into yet another COVID-19 postponement. That’s the nature of the 2020 football season. Hopefully things return to a sense of normalcy next season, because this whole situation is making it increasingly difficult to handicap.
It’s probably better to avoid the “Covid games” like we saw in New England on Sunday. It is about impossible to ascertain how a team is going to respond. Tennessee handled it better than anyone could have expected, while the Patriots looked lost. The Chiefs and Bills were pushed back to Monday because the Bills had to play the Tennessee Titans on Tuesday night.
Their entire schedule was thrown into wack because of the Titans’ coronavirus outbreak. There has not been an outbreak in the Chiefs or Bills’ locker room, and both teams were able to go through their regular motions over the last week, so we aren’t getting a Covid game here.
I was looking forward to this game being played on Thursday, but better late than never. Keep in mind that kickoff is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. EST and 2:00 p.m. PST. It’s different, but this is a different season. Head below for our free Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills prop picks for October 19, 2020.
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 19, 2020
Devin Singletary Rushing Yards
Devin Singletary was more than acceptable as a rookie with the Bills in Buffalo. He carried the rock for 775 yards on 5.1 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns. The one knock on Singletary was the 4 fumbles on 151 carries. So far he hasn’t fumbled the ball in 61 attempts through five games. That had to be a point of emphasis for Singletary in the offseason.
Overall in 2020, Singletary has been satisfactory with 238 yards on 3.9 yards per carry. The entire offense has opened up with Stefon Diggs, so they’ve relied less on the ground this season. The Bills are confident with having Josh Allen step back in the pocket and sling it around more than he has in the past. That said, defenses still have to respect Singletary and the Bills’ rushing game.
I like the Bills chances of leaning on Singletary a bit more on Monday. The Chiefs have been dreadful against this run this season. They’re next to last with 157.6 rushing yards conceded per game. Chris Jones returned to the defensive line last week, and made an impact with 4 tackles, but it didn’t help on the scoreboard against the Raiders. The Raiders scored 40 points in a 40-32 win.
The Chiefs were gashed for 144 yards on 4.1 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Josh Jacobs ran for 77 yards, while Devontae Booker checked in for 62 yards on 7 carries for 8.9 yards per carry. Singletary has rushed for at least 52 yards in three out of five games this season. Zack Moss is expected to return to the lineup, but Singletary will still play a feature role in the backfield. The Bills likely stick to the run in this game and find success. Singletary OVER 51.5 rushing yards looks good on Monday.
Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards
While the Bills are going to look to exploit the Chiefs’ weak run defense, it doesn’t mean Josh Allen’s arm is going to be ignored. He is going to have to sling it around, and take some deep shots with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on the opposite side this evening. I see this being a balanced game for the Bills offensively. The oddsmakers have had this prop way too low for several weeks now.
They’re finally catching up, but I still don’t know if 82.5 yards is enough for Diggs. Diggs had one off game against a very good Rams’ secondary in Week 3. He caught 4 receptions for 49 yards and a score in that game. However, Diggs has been hot against his other opponents. Remove the Week 3 game, and Diggs has averaged 115 receiving yards per game through four outings.
In his last two games, Diggs cleared 100 yards for 115 against the Raiders and 106 against the Titans. The Chiefs are terrible against the run, but not world beaters against the pass either. They are 11th in the league with 225.2 passing yards conceded per game. I will take my chances on Diggs turning in another big performance in Week 6. For his standards, 83 receiving yards would just be another day at the office.
Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards
The Bills’ defense has not looked like themselves in 2020. That much has been noticeable with this team. If we want to put the 2019 defense on the field with the 2020 offense, then the Bills might be the scariest team in the league. The rest of the AFC, including the Chiefs, are keeping their fingers crossed that the Bills’ defense doesn’t get hot. Right now, though, there have been issues, especially in the secondary which has conceded 263.2 passing yards per game.
The Bills put a lot of money into their defensive line and not receiving the production they expected. There is time for the Bills’ defense to turn things around, and even come up with a solid performance tonight, but they are not going to contain Mahomes completely. Tyreek Hill should be able to get his on Monday. With his speed and deep threat ability, all it could take is one or two plays for him to go OVER this total.
Note that Hill has averaged 72.8 receiving yards in 2020. After not being required to do much in Week 1 against the Houston Texans, Hill has averaged 79.5 yards through the last four weeks. In three out of his previous four starts, he’s easily eclipsed 70 receiving yards. The game he didn’t was against a tough Patriots’ defense with Stephon Gilmore up on him for most of the day. I’m willing to play the OVER on the Tyreek receiving yards prop.