Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Pick – NFL Week 7

The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Colorado for what could be a snow filled game against the Denver Broncos. The forecast calls for a lot of snow, with a total of 5 to 10 inches dumped on the region. Next weekend it’s supposed to be in the 60’s. Anyone who lives in Colorado can tell you about the wild fluctuations in weather in the state. There is around an 80% chance of snow during the game, so this one should get interesting.

I love snow games, especially in heavy snow. We could have that on Sunday at Mile High in Denver. Patrick Mahomes is from Tyler, Texas and played his college ball at Texas Tech, so snow games weren’t typical for him. He played the Broncos in a snow game last year at Arrowhead in Kansas City and it went really well. Mahomes went 27 for 34 with 340 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Mahomes clearly wasn’t bothered by the snow in that one, as he led the Chiefs to a 27-3 victory. Having said that, the snow on Sunday in Denver should be heavier than what he experienced last year. The Chiefs’ offense that we’re used to probably won’t be firing on all cylinders. Along with snowy conditions expected on Sunday in Denver, the wind is expected to kick on during the afternoon hours as well.

Snow is one thing, but windy conditions can make the passing and kicking game that much more difficult. Mahomes did enough last week on the road in Buffalo, as he took the backseat and allowed Clyde Edwards-Helaire to drive the car against the Bills. Edwards-Helaire gained 161 yards on 26 attempts for 6.2 yards per carry. The Bills couldn’t stop the run, so there was no reason for Mahomes to throw the ball around 40 times.

The Chiefs are going to feed Edwards-Helaire early and often in Denver on Sunday. He should expect to see another heavy workload at Mile High. The Broncos drafted him for games like this. They don’t always have to rely on Mahomes’ arm, which is the ultimate luxury to have in this dangerous KC offense. The Broncos must have some confidence going into this one after beating the Patriots at Foxboro, 18-12. Head below for our free Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos pick for October 25, 2020.

KC Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos NFL Week 7 Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Chiefs -7 (-115)
  • Broncos +7 (-105)
Moneyline:

  • Chiefs (-330)
  • Broncos (+275)
Total:

  • Over 44 (-110)
  • Under 44 (-110)

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Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction:

The Chiefs have a couple of things going in their favor in this game not named Patrick Mahomes. As I alluded to above, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to be a terrific asset for the Chiefs on Sunday in a snowstorm. The rookie has gained 505 yards on 4.7 yards per carry and a touchdown. He’s certainly rewarded the Chiefs for making him the first running back off the board in the draft. Edwards-Helaire has also been included in the passing-game, as he’s caught 31 receptions for 177 yards. If the weather doesn’t allow deep routes to develop, then Edwards-Helaire may prove to be the biggest difference maker. Joining him in the backfield will be Le’Veon Bell, who will be making his debut as a Chief.

The other big positive the Chiefs have in a game like this is their defense against the pass. If the weather forecast holds then there may not be too much passing, but their underrated secondary will only get some help from the snow and wind. The Chiefs are third in the NFL with just 208 passing yards conceded per game. Even in perfect weather, Drew Lock likely doesn’t have a great game against the Chiefs’ defense on Sunday. They did a fantastic job against a dangerous Bills’ offense last week in Buffalo.

Josh Allen was off the mark with just 122 passing yards on 14 for 27 passing at home. I can’t see Lock doing much against the Chiefs in snow and wind. In the snow game at Arrowhead last year, Lock passed for 208 yards on 18 for 40 passing with an interception. The Broncos had to keep passing to try to mount a comeback, but Lock wasn’t having it in bad weather. Through three games in 2020, Lock has passed for 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions on 53.2% passing. I think he’s a fine backup in the NFL, but not confident in him ever developing into a long-term option.

The Broncos’ defense has been adequate this season, as they’re 14th in the league with 349.8 yards allowed per game. They’ve yielded 239.2 yards against the pass and 110.6 yards against the run, both acceptable numbers. The defense was flying around last week against the Patriots in Foxboro. Cam Newton was under constant pressure with no options for him to go. If they can play with that kind of energy again, the Broncos should be able to get stops in the snow. I’m on the UNDER in a game that should favor a low-scoring affair in Denver.

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The Bet
UNDER 44
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.