Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Pick – NFL Week 15

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers headline Thursday Night Football with a standout matchup to get Week 15 started. The Chiefs are in top form going into the final quarter of the regular season.

They have won six straight games, including wins over the Green Bay Packers, 13-7, and Dallas Cowboys, 19-9. The Chiefs are most recently coming off a blowout over the Las Vegas Raiders at home, 48-9.

Las Vegas looks done while the Chiefs continue to rise higher. There were a lot of people that had the Chiefs done for after they lost against the Tennessee Titans on October 24, 24-3. Even the following week, the Chiefs didn’t look good in a 20-17 win over the Giants.

The Chiefs have done everything right since beating the Green Bay Packers on November 7. After struggling with the Giants, this team must have had a revelation that they’re going to have to begin playing much better football.

Kansas City is going into Thursday night with a record of 9-4 and the lead in the AFC West. This is a big matchup with the Chargers lurking in second at 8-5 going into this one. The Chargers are coming off a 37-21 win over the Giants on Sunday.

Did Justin Herbert ever look good in that contest, and it isn’t just because he was feasting on a bad defense. Herbert was making some incredible completions into small windows, including a deep strike to Jalen Guyton for a 59-yard score.

That pass was a thing of beauty from Herbert, and despite no Keenan Allen, the Chargers had no problems putting up 37 points. Herbert passed for 275 yards with 3 touchdowns. He is expected to have Allen back, but still awaiting word on clearance from the Covid list.

This is a rare treat and must-watch game on Thursday Night Football in Week 15. Head below for our free Chiefs vs. Chargers pick on December 16, 2021.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Odds and Team Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-115) -165 Over 52 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers +3 (-105) +145 Under 52 (-110)
Team Data Kansas City Chiefs Los Angeles Chargers
Overall Record 9-4 8-5
ATS Record 6-7-0 7-6-0
Away/Home Record 3-2 4-3
ATS Away/Home 3-2-0 3-4-0
Points Per Game 27.0 27.0
Points Against Per Game 20.6 25.8
Passing Yards Per Game 277.9 280.3
Rushing Yards Per Game 111.7 104.9

Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction:

The Chiefs are at a big loss in this one with Chris Jones scheduled to miss this matchup at SoFi Stadium. He will be on the Covid list for this one, so Jones is not going to be available. Jones has had 20 tackles and 7 sacks on the season.

In his last three outings, Jones has recorded 4 sacks and played a big role in putting the Chiefs’ defense back on the map this season. He’s impactful against the pass and run.

There aren’t many defensive linemen that can rush the passer and stuff the run as well as Jones can. If offensive lines didn’t have to care so much about blocking Jones, he’d have bigger numbers than he currently does.

With that in mind, Justin Herbert is not going to complain about Jones being unable to suit up for this big game. He has passed for 3,822 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on 67.1% completions.

Herbert has helped lead the Chargers to an average of 385.3 yards per game for fifth in the NFL. They are scoring at a healthy clip with 27 points scored per game. At home the offense has looked better as well.

The Chargers have accumulated 408.4 yards per game at SoFi Stadium. As better as the Chiefs’ defense has been playing than earlier in the season, they are 26th in the NFL with 252 yards allowed per game against the pass.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends:


  • 4-0 ATS in their previous four games
  • 8-3-1 ATS in their previous 12 games in December
  • 22-10-1 ATS in their previous 33 games versus the AFC West
  • 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games in Week 15
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five games in Thursday


  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games versus the AFC West
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games versus a team with a winning record
  • OVER is 8-3 in their previous 11 games versus a team with a winning record
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five games at SoFI Stadium

Herbert should be able to have a cleaner pocket to operate out of without having to deal with Jones. If the Chiefs give him time, he’s going to figure it out at home. The Chargers’ defense can be spotty at times, so I don’t know if I’m running to the window to fade Patrick Mahomes.

The Chargers can’t just concern themselves with Mahomes. They have been abysmal against the run, and need to toughen up on the defensive line. Going into Thursday, the Chargers are 31st in the NFL with 140.7 yards allowed per game.

If the Chargers want to play closer to the line to help against the run, Mahomes will just beat them over the top. It’s going to pick your poison. Mahomes isn’t having a perfect season, but has been solid with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on 65.5% completions.

He’s coming off a productive showing with 258 yards and 2 touchdowns on 83.3% completions against the Raiders. The Chiefs should be able to move the ball on this Chargers team that has allowed 25.8 points per game for 26th in the NFL.

Without Jones on the defense for the Chiefs, I’m not too excited about playing them. I lean Chiefs, but prefer the OVER in this spot. It should be an entertaining contest with a final score of around 30-24 or 31-28.


Chiefs vs. Chargers Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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