Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Week 5 Pick – October 10

Just a week after an emotional return to take on his former team and coach in New England, Tom Brady will now need to go against Brian Flores and the Dolphins. Flores of course was the defensive coordinator for much of Brady’s time with the Patriots, and that insider knowledge could help to limit Brady for the second straight week.

Miami threw away another game last week and will need a big showing against a potent Tampa Bay squad if they want to crawl back into the playoff race. Jacoby Brissett hasn’t been great in filling the void for Tua Tagavailoa, but the Bucs’ defense does have some holes that can be exploited.

For Tampa Bay, after a dominant start to their season, they’ve been a tad sluggish of late. They only squeaked by New England last Sunday night and were fortunate to do so. They’re battling a ton of injuries right now, and their secondary is heavily depleted. While they sit at 3-1 entering Week 5, it’s precarious given the competition within their division and conference.

This game is undoubtedly one to watch and don’t let the big spread fool you – the Dolphins can give Brady some problems. Continue reading on beneath the current live odds for further trends, analysis, and betting data for this Week 5 Battle of Florida showdown. Enjoy the game, folks!

Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Live Odds & Betting History

*These odds are provided by


  • Miami Dolphins +10 (-110)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 (-100)

  • Miami Dolphins (+380)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-470)
Total Points:

  • Over 48 (-110)
  • Under 48 (-110)
Overall Record 1-3-0 3-1-0
ATS Record 2-2-0 1-3-0
Home/Away Record 1-1-0 2-0-0
Points Per Game 15.5 30.5
Points Against Per Game 27.3 26.3
Passing Yards Per Game 173.8 327.8
Rushing Yards Per Game 78.3 72.0

Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction

We saw the Buccaneers’ passing attack sputter last week vs. Bill Belichick and the Patriots, and it’ll be interesting to see if Miami can replicate that formula here in Week 5.

Brian Flores is very familiar when going up against his old QB Tom Brady, and though the Dolphins don’t necessarily boast the defensive personnel to limit the Bucs, they can do some things to frustrate him.

For starters, Brady looked lost without Gronkowski as a reliable target downfield last week. Battling a rib injury, Gronk will be out once again vs. the Dolphins, and that should allow Miami’s secondary to focus in on stopping Chris Godwin and Mike Evans instead.

Miami doesn’t boast a promising run defense, but the Bucs have proven that they’re reluctant to go to a heavy ground game. Leonard Fournette has shown flashes so far in 2021, but Tampa prefers the aerial route. If the Dolphins can generate pressure without blitzing too heavily, they should have enough to make things problematic for Brady.

The Dolphins will need to score points to hang with the Bucs. Going against an offense of this calibre is never easy, and without pouring rain to limit them like we saw last week in New England – Miami is going to need to retain the ball, and keep the chains moving.

And though Jacoby Brissett has not looked good thus far, nor has his offensive line. He’s been battling with protection issues for the past few weeks – but could get a reprieve here in Week 5. Tampa has struggled generating pressure from their defensive line, and with all of the defensive injuries in the Bucs’ secondary, Brissett could finally have some time and space to hit his targets downfield.

And though, many pundits don’t give the Fins much of a shot – this matchup actually does align well for some drama.

Dolphins vs. Buccaneers Trends To Know:

  • Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
  • Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
  • Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
  • Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
  • Buccaneers are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 6-0 in Buccaneers last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.


While many will just assume a routine Bucs blowout in Week 5, the Dolphins can hang around in this one.  They do some things both on offense and defense that should frustrate Tampa, and with all of the Bucs’ injuries right now at key positions – Miami should be able to move the chains come Sunday.  This spread is too high right now, and expect the Dolphins to make things interesting in Tampa Bay.

My Pick
Dolphins +10
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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