Patriots at Rams – NFL Pick for Week 14

New England Patriots (6-6) at Los Angeles Rams (8-4)


The Patriots have a 9-5 edge in the series and have won the last four. That includes wins in Super Bowls XXXVI and LIII. The last win for the Rams was in 2001 when the then-St. Louis Rams took a 24-17 win before the first of the two Super Bowl meetings. The last time the two teams met in LA was in 1992 when the Rams took a 14-0 win. The Patriots have won four out of their last five while the Rams check in as winners of three of their last four.

Vs. The Spread

Money is coming in on the Patriots as the line started with the Rams at a 6-point favorite. The Patriots are 4-2 in their last six ATS and the number has gone UNDER in four of New England’s last five games. The total has also gone UNDER in eight of the Rams’ last 12 games and Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against AFC competition.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Patriots +5 (+100) +208 O 44.5 (-115)
Rams -5 (-120) -248 U 44.5 (-105)

Last week

New England handed the Los Angeles Chargers a 45-0 decision at SoFi Stadium as that was the worst Chargers loss in team history. The Patriots churned out 165 yards in their rushing game and Gunner Olszewski scored on a 70-yard punt return and Devin McCourty returned a blocked field goal 44 yards for a score.

The NFC West has continued to be the toughest and most competitive division in the NFL as we saw once again with the Rams’ 38-28 win at Arizona last Sunday. Jared Goff completed 37-of-47 passes for 351 yards and a touchdown as Los Angeles rolled up 463 yards of total offense. The Rams defense held the powerful Cardinals offense to only 292 total yards and Troy Hill picked off Cards quarterback Kyler Murray for a 35-yard pick-6.

When the Patriots Have the Ball

New England Patriots LogoThe big key for the Rams is to not turn the ball over and give New England quarterback Cam Newton short fields. Even with the 45-0 win last week, Newton only passed for 69 yards. The Patriots passing game only yields 191 yards per game while Los Angeles is No. 2 in the NFL in stopping the pass as the Rams give up 198 yards per contest through the air.

Damien Harris and Cam Newton are the Patriots top two rushers as New England goes for 150.9 on the ground which is third in the NFL. The Rams’ run-stop is third in the NFL behind Tampa Bay and New Orleans as it allows only 93 rushing yards per game.

When the Rams Have the Ball

Los Angeles Rams LogoThe Patriots’ injury report has swelled to 15 at midweek, including cornerback J.C. Jackson who is second in the NFL with seven interceptions as he would play a key role against Goff, who has thrown ten interceptions despite generally implementing one of the most thorough and efficient offenses in the NFL. Those 10 picks are one big reason why the Rams are at an even zero in turnover differential as the defenses has turned opponents over 20 times.

Goff could be in for a huge windfall in the passing game as New England shows generally very little pass rush – 18 sacks – and the Pats only have seven interceptions as a team beside of Jackson’s seven. Robert Woods is smoking at wide receiver where he had 10 catches for 85 yards last week in Arizona. He looks for his seventh consecutive game with five or more receptions and his fifth in a row with 80 or more yards.

NFL Betting Predictions

Winner: Rams (-5) 24, Patriots 13
Over-Under: Take UNDER 44.5

The Bets
Los Angeles Rams -5
UNDER 44.5
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Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.