Monday Night Football has the biggest game of Week 13 in Orchard Park between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. The AFC-leading Patriots, yes, the Patriots, not the Bills, are atop the standings in the AFC going into Monday night.
Mac Jones is only a rookie and has the Patriots at 8-4 and ahead of the 7-4 Bills. Having said that, the Patriots have played one more game, and there’s a lot of football left to be played. If the Bills get a win at home tonight, they will jump the Patriots.
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 5, 2021
Jones looks like a franchise quarterback in Foxborough, but this run wouldn’t be possible without Bill Belichick. This isn’t a team with the best talent. Belichick has them playing like one of the best, though. He’s turning players that probably wouldn’t be doing much elsewhere into contributors.
I could make an argument for both sides in this one. When I can make a good argument for both teams, that’s when I take a pass. That doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities to hit some prop bets on Monday night. I’m going to play the prop board and hopefully build on a profitable Sunday.
Head below for our best prop bets for the Patriots vs. Bills on December 6, 2021.
Devin Singletary Total Rushing Yards
This is not expected to be a perfect weather game in Orchard Park on Monday night. It’s just what you would expect from a game in Buffalo in primetime in December.
There is expected to be rain, wind, and potentially snow falling on Sunday night. Even without the bad weather, the Bills were going to look to attack the Patriots on the ground.
If New England has a hole in their defense, they can be pushed around up front on their defensive line. Note that the Patriots have allowed an average of 115.8 rushing yards per game.
They are third against the pass with 200.9 yards against per game. Josh Allen isn’t going to just hand the ball off for 4 quarters, but Devin Singletary will have his chances in sloppy weather.
Singletary goes into Monday with 459 yards and 2 touchdowns on 4.7 yards per carry. He gained 44 yards on 15 attempts against the Saints on Thanksgiving.
In a game with unfavorable conditions expected, Singletary should see plenty of carries. By volume alone, he should get OVER this prop.
Stefon Diggs Total Receptions
The Bills aren’t just going to give up passing the ball completely in this one. They will take their chances, and it’s most likely going to be directed at Josh Allen’s favorite target, Stefon Diggs.
Diggs is going into Monday night with 847 yards and 7 touchdowns on 12.6 yards per reception. He can do a little of everything as a receiver. Diggs has the speed to split a secondary deep, and he’s a terrific route runner as well.
Diggs can play from underneath the defense and doesn’t need to go deep to find receptions. If it’s a windy night, he’s capable of squating on short routes and finding room for a catch. Allen will be looking his way regardless of the weather conditions.
As a result, we have some value on Diggs. He’s had at least 5 receptions in five of his last six outings. At a minimum on Monday night, Diggs should grab 5 more receptions in this one.
Rhamondre Stevenson Total Rushing Yards
Like the Bills, the Patriots will lean on their running backs often tonight. This is the biggest game of Mac Jones’ career, and while he will have opportunities, Belichick has to make it simple for him in bad weather.
The combo of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson will see the ball plenty. The 23-year-old rookie out of Oklahoma is seeing a nice workload in his first season in the NFL. Stevenson has gained 351 yards and 3 touchdowns on 4.6 yards per carry.
After being underutilized earlier in the season, Stevenson continues to see more carries. That’s the way it works with Belichick. If you’re producing and not messing up assignments, you’ll continue to see opportunities in the offense.
Stevenson gas galloped for a minimum of 46 yards in four straight outings after going for 26 yards on October 31. He recorded a career-high 162 yards on only 8 carries versus the Jets three games back on November 14. Expect Stevenson to run for at least 50 yards on Monday night.