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NFL Week 11 Picks 2014

After weeks of mediocrity, I was able to a perfect 2-0 with my week 10 NFL picks. It sure feels good to come out with a big profit after many weeks of 1-1 selections, and gives me some momentum moving forward. It was also nice to have a profit locked in after the 1 PM ET games concluded, not needing a win in the later afternoon games to break even for the week. This week it was the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens that came up big to net me my most profitable week of the season.

The Lions and Dolphins were engaged in a close, one-possession game for most of the afternoon. In typical Lions fashion, Mathew Stafford lead the offense down the field in the dying minutes of the football game and converted on yet another opportunity to win the game with a late score. This time he found Theo Riddick in the endzone with just 29 second remaining on the game clock and the score put the Lions ahead 20-16, which of course ended up as the final score and covered the 2.5-point spread. This is the third straight game in which Detroit has orchestrated a 4th quarter comeback to win, and is also their fourth win in a row to run their record to a division-best 7-2 on the season. This is a team to be reckoned with for the rest of the season and very likely, the playoffs as well.

The Ravens did not make things quite as interesting, and that is fine by me. After surrendering the first score of the game to the Titans in the first quarter, Baltimore shut the door defensively for the rest of the afternoon, which allowed their offense to take over. The Ravens tallied the final 21 points of the game, a touchdown in each of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters that eventually sent them to a 21-7 victory and a 6-4 record on the season. Baltimore didn’t beat the lowly Titans as bad as I originally thought they might, but as long as they covered the large 10-point spread I am good with that.

After a nice week let’s roll into week 11 and see what is in store.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers

Lines – Green Bay -6 (-110) @ 5dimes.eu
OVER 54.5 (-110)

My Pick – PACKERS -6 (-110)

A great NFC showdown between two playoff hopefuls is in store this Sunday as Mark Sanchez and the 7-2 Eagles march in to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. To be blunt, I’ve already explained my reasoning for this pick: Mark Sanchez vs. Aaron Rodgers, who do you like? After a slow start to the year Rodgers has been absolutely dominant and is putting himself in a nice position to win his second MVP trophy. With all the attention that guys like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning get on a week-to-week basis, I am still of the opinion that this guy in slightly underrated. He has tallied 25 touchdowns versus just three interceptions on the season, has one lost one fumble, and has a QB rating of over 120 which leads the NFL. Can it get better? Yep, at Lambeau Field he has a 140.1 passer rating, 15 touchdowns, zero interceptions, a 4-0 record and an average winning margin of 25.3 points. Now, let’s take a look at Sanchez. With only one start on the season, it is too small of a sample size to either praise or pummel him, but let’s be honest, his defence won him that game against Carolina on Monday night. Cam Newton was getting tossed around like a ragdoll all night by the Philly defence due to his immobility and even worse, his incompetence at the Quarterback position. Sanchez’s first two possessions began in Carolina territory and ended up in ten points, which put Philly well on their way to a large-margin victory. He will be in tough against Green Bay who allows a 64.2 passer rating against visiting Quarterbacks at Lambeau, plus they have Clay Matthews on their side and he recorded a whopping 11 tackles in last week’s victory. Jeremy Maclin has been outstanding for the Eagles this season, but the Eagles receivers are the second-best receiver corps in this tilt. Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson have 18 combined touchdown catches this season, which leads the NFL for receiving duos. Eddie Lacy has ramped up his play week-by-week after a sluggish start to the season, giving the Packers four serious offensive weapons at their disposal in Rodgers, Lacy, Cobb and Nelson. One last note, I am not a weatherman, but I am guessing it will be cold in Green Bay this Sunday, and University of Southern California product Mark Sanchez does not fair well in cold weather, especially after his first couple of years in the NFL, whereas Rodgers and company are uses to this on an annual basis. The Packers will win this game, and will cover the six-point spread this Sunday from Lambeau Field.

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Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints

Lines – New Orleans -8 (+110) @ 5dimes.eu
OVER 51 (-110)

My Pick – OVER 51 (-110)

A team that is in dire need of a rebound effort is set to take on the divisional leader of the worst division in football this season. Translation: The Cincinnati Bengals travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints with a must-win mentality on their mind. The Bengals are coming off of one of the worst home performances in three years as they were embarrassed 24-3 by the Browns last Thursday night, something just about nobody saw coming. Andy Dalton finished the game with just 86 yards through the air and a 2.0 passer rating, the fifth worst rating by a QB with at least 30 attempts in history. However, that contest was played outdoors in cold weather, and Dalton will feel much more comfortable in an indoor stadium this week despite being on the road. For New Orleans, it’s a similar story as they lost their first home game since 2012 last week when the 49ers marched in to New Orleans and stole an overtime victory away from the Saints, who briefly thought they won the game on the last play of regulation but were sorry to see that an offensive push-off penalty was called on the Saints Jimmy Graham in the endzone. The Saints lead the worst division in football despite a 4-5 record on the season, and will be looking to take advantage of a Bengals defence that is missing some key players in their front seven. Cincinnati’s defence surrenders just about 400 yards per game, one of the worst totals in the NFL, and will be facing a New Orleans offense that totals 435 yards per game, one of the best in the NFL. They will be forced to deal with Graham and breakout targets such as Kenny Stills and Brandin Cooks, and the resurgence of Mark Ingram who has six touchdowns on the year and has become a workhouse Runningback for the Saints. The Saints defence will be tested as well with A.J. Green back in the lineup and another breakout receiver, Mohammed Sanu who accumulated the 10th most receiving yards in the league over the last five weeks before last week’s dismal performance by the entire Bengals roster. Long story short, plenty of threats in both offenses playing in a dome that consistently sees high-scoring games will result in a winning pick this week. Take the OVER and watch these two teams go at it this Sunday afternoon from New Orleans.