NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Day NFL Best Prop Bets

NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Day NFL Best Prop Bets

There are three games scheduled for Thanksgiving on Thursday. It’s football all day beginning at 12:30 p.m. EST in Detroit at Ford Field.

Not many people are going to care to watch this game between two bad teams, but the Thanksgiving Day game is always a big deal in Detroit.

The Lions had two or three years decent years under Matthew Stafford that made Thanksgiving interesting to an extent.

However, this isn’t one of those years, as the Lions have struggled with Jared Goff under center in a rebuilding campaign.

We may not even see Goff against the Bears on Thursday. It could be a Thanksgiving game with Andy Dalton vs. Tim Boyle. I’m not going to lie, that sounds pretty ugly.

Following the Bears and Lions, we have the Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys at the AT&T Center. That might be good.

The Raiders off-the-field problems seem to be catching up to them, as they come off a disappointing performance in a 32-13 loss against the Cincinnati Bengals. It’s a big game for both teams.

The nightcap features the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome. Both teams are looking to bounce back after recent struggles, especially the Bills who were blasted at home by the Indianapolis Colts.

There are only three games on Thursday, but plenty of props to handicap for Thanksgiving football. Head below for our best NFL Thanksgiving prop bets for November 25, 2021.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Props

D’Andre Swift Total Rushing Yards

The Detroit Lions biggest weapon on offense has to be D’Andre Swift. Their passing-game is absolutely putrid and it doesn’t matter who is at quarterback.

Jared Goff might not be the guy, but as a unit, there isn’t much here for him to work with. There is no clear No. 1 wide receiver on the Lions.

One promising sign has been D’Andre Swift and the Lions on the ground. Swift is coming off a high with 136 yards and a touchdown on 9.7 yards per carry.

He’s gained 555 yards and 4 touchdowns on 4.1 yards per carry this season. The offensive line isn’t doing a bad job on run blocking. The addition of Penei Sewell has opened up lanes for Swift.

Swift is going to be the focal point on Thursday for the Lions. He should find room to run against a Bears’ defense that has allowed 122.8 rushing yards per game for 24th in the NFL.

In his last two games, Swift ran for 130 yards against the Steelers on 33 carries, and then 136 yards needing only 14 carries to do it against the Browns.

With no other true weapons for the Lions, he’s going to see plenty more carries in this one. Swift running for at least 70 yards is a bettable prop.

D’Andre Swift Total Rushing Yards
OVER 69.5

David Montgomery Total Rushing Yards

I’m looking at both starting running backs to have productive outings on Thanksgiving. Offenses have figured out that the Lions can’t stop the run, and they’re feeding their backfield often.

Teams are running the ball at a league-high of 30.1 carries per game against the Lions. They’re doing it for good reason. Detroit struggles against the run, so teams keep handing it off.

That’s what we can probably expect on Sunday. The Lions have allowed 140.5 rushing yards per game for 31st in the NFL.

It’d be surprising if the Bears don’t gash the Lions for big yardage at Ford Field on the ground. Montgomery hasn’t been active all season, but he’s been the main ball carrier for the Bears when suiting up.

Montgomery has gained 430 yards and 3 touchdowns on 4.5 yards per carry this season. He should expect an expanded role against the Lions’ defense in this one.

I’m siding with Montgomery to go OVER on his rushing prop as well.

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop
OVER 79.5

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Dallas Cowboys Props

Dak Prescott Total Passing Yards

Dak Prescott is back for the annual Thanksgiving game in Dallas after missing last year. He hasn’t had any setbacks this season regarding his health fortunately.

Prescott is going into Thanksgiving with 2,557 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions on 69.6% completions. He’s coming off a horrid performance with 216 yards and 2 interceptions versus the Chiefs.

Prescott was in good form against the Falcons with 296 yards and 2 touchdowns. It was his third outing in four games where Prescott threw for at least 290 yards.

At home on Thanksgiving, the idea of Prescott bouncing back for a big game isn’t unexpected. The Raiders have held up against the pass with 220.8 yards against per game.

Having said that, I’m going to back Prescott to come through in Arlington on Thanksgiving. Note that CeeDee Lamb is on track to play after some doubt this week.

I’m going to take the OVER on this prop for Prescott to pass for around 300 yards.

Dak Prescott Passing Yards Prop
OVER 273.5

Bryan Edwards Total Receiving Yards

Derek Carr needs somebody to step for him in the absence of Henry Ruggs. It would also help if offensive coordinator Greg Olson called a good game. Olson makes questionable decisions a bit too much for my liking.

The Raiders had the ball inside the 10-yard line last week early on when the game was close, and Carr didn’t throw it to the end zone once.

What was going on there? I know they don’t want to turn the ball over, but the Raiders must take chances.

Edwards didn’t see a target last week against the Bengals. That can’t happen again. He was coming off a solid outing with 3 receptions and 88 yards against the Chiefs.

Edwards also found the end zone for the second time this season. It was the third time in four outings where he had at least 40 yards receiving.

After a disappearing act against the Bengals, expect Edwards to come to life on Thanksgiving with a solid attempt.

Bryan Edwards Receiving Yards Prop
OVER 31.5

Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints Props

Josh Allen Total Passing Yards

The Buffalo Bills are looking for traction after an ugly performance against the Colts at home last week.

That was a terrible look for the Bills, as they got behind early and never recovered in a 41-15 loss. Josh Allen passed for 209 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in a shaky performance.

The entire team was shaky to bad at home in Orchard Park. It was the second time in three weeks where the Bills looked off the ball.

They lost against the Jacksonville Jaguars two weeks back, 9-6, recovered in a blowout over the Jets, 45-17, but looked lost again last week.

Allen enters Thanksgiving evening with 2,811 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on 65.7% completions. He’s had a productive season despite a couple of rough spots.

After the Bills struggled against the Jets, Allen came back for 366 yards versus the Jets. I’m not saying north of 350 yards here, but he should be able to stay away from Marshon Lattimore and have a big game.

The Saints are 22nd in the NFL with 252.2 yards allowed per game. They’re tough against the run, which should keep the ball in the air for the Bills.

Allen should reach the 290 yards passing on Thursday night indoors at Caesars Superdome.

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop
OVER 272.5

Deonte Harris Total Receiving Yards

This is a tough matchup for the Saints’ offense, which will be without Alvin Kamara and possibly Mark Ingram. Ingram is listed as questionable and is on track not to play.

Trevor Siemian will be depended on to come up with big plays downfield in this one. It’s a tough matchup for the Saints’ passing-game against a very stingy Buffalo secondary, but they’re going to have to keep attacking.

Deonte Harris had a disappointing showing last game with 2 receptions for 11 yards. It was well below his expectations for the season. It was the first game since September 19 that Harris had less than 30 yards receiving in a performance.

He has 418 yards and 2 touchdowns on the season, with the rookie capable of much better than we saw against the Eagles. Tough matchup for Harris and the offense, but he should see enough opportunities to have more than 33 yards receiving tonight.

Deonte Harris Receiving Yards Prop
OVER 33.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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