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NFL Week 16 Picks 2014

My winning streak continued through week 15 as I had one winner and a push with my picks for the week. That will push my record to 5-0-1 over the last three weeks, easily my best stretch of the NFL season (so far). The Patriots pummelled the visiting Miami Dolphins on Sunday, clinching another division title and doing so in impressive fashion. The push came later in the afternoon in the San Francisco and Seattle matchup as the 49ers were eliminated from playoff contention with a loss and the Seahawks defence once again stole the show.

Tom Brady continues to win his division just about every year and that was something that was in serious question earlier in the season. However, the future Hall of Fame Quarterback threw three touchdown passes in the third quarter alone and that sent the total OVER the 48 point number. The game was pretty much on pace for the OVER throughout as the teams combined for 27 points at the half with the Pats up by just a single point, 14-13. But as mentioned, Brady went off in the third quarter and made sure that we got OVER the total, not having to make me sweat for the win, which is always nice. New England will host a playoff game once again this season and I do not want to be the team that has to try and win in Foxborough.

The 49ers and Seahawks went at it once again and it early on it looked like San Fran might just be able to take down Seattle on their home turf as the score stood 7-3 Niners at halftime. Then the Seattle defence happened. San Fran was held pointless in the second half and the Seahawks were again Colin Kaepernick’s worst nightmare. Kap was held to just 141 yards through the air on the day and losing Frank Gore to a concussion certainly did not help San Fran’s cause. On the other side Marshawn Lynch ran for 91 yards on 21 carries and a touchdown, playing a big part in eliminating their arch rival from playoff contention. There could be a lot of turnover in San Francisco this offseason and Jim Harbaugh is likely about to coach his last two games for the 49ers in week’s 16 and 17.

Let the good times roll. Feels good to be this hot and it would be fantastic to continue the hot stretch to end the regular season over the next couple of weeks. Let’s see what we have in store for week 16 of the NFL season.

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lines – Green Bay -13 (+105)
OVER 49 (-110)

My Pick – OVER 49 (-110)

Fresh off of a road loss to the Buffalo Bills last Sunday, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will try their luck this sunday against the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The upset of week 15 was indeed the Bills knocking off the highly touted Packers, however with a little bit of thought and insight it’s not all that unfathomable that this occurred. The Bills play rock solid defence at home and for some reason it seems Rodgers is not nearly the same Quarterback on the road against good defences. However, This Bucs team does not fall under the category of having a good defence as their 2-12 record might suggest, and believe me when I say the Packers need to win this game and their offense will definitely show up this Sunday. Green Bay’s loss last week sent them to 10-4 on the year and in to a first place tie with the Detroit Lions who were victorious at home over the Vikings. Detroit plays on the road this week against the struggling Chicago Bears, so most likely Green Bay needs to win Sunday to avoid giving first place in the NFC North to Detroit. Rodgers entered last week’s game with an NFL-best QB rating of 119.0 and threw almost half of his interceptions for the season last week by being picked off twice, so I wouldn’t expect a pick for a few games for the MVP candidate. Rodgers was also held without a touchdown pass last week, the only time that has been done this season so the Bucs are likely in for a thumping from Rodgers and co. this weekend. For as good as this team’s offense is, their defence has been less than stellar for the majority of the year. The Packers and Bucs give up 366 and 367 yards per game respectively, but Green Bay has ten wins and Tampa Bay has two. This goes to show the Pack defence usually is bailed out by the team’s potent offense, setting us up for a high scoring game this Sunday. The Packers score 31 points per game and the Bucs score 18 per game, interestingly adding up to our 49 point total here for this game, which is not always the case. However, for this game I think we need to take that 31 number for Green Bay and add at least 7 more points. Tampa Bay ranks 25th in the NFL in yards allowed per game at 366.6 and in points per game allowed at 26.2. This is a recipe for disaster for the Bucs this Sunday so look for Rodgers and the Green Bay offense to explode and get OVER the 49 point total – possibly by themselves.

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Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys

Lines – Dallas -2.5 (-135)
OVER 55 (-110)

My Pick – OVER 55 (-110)

The Colts march in to Jerry’s World this Sunday afternoon to do battle with the Dallas Cowboys, who are fresh off of a huge win at division rival Philadelphia to take sole possession of the NFC East lead. The Colts aren’t in too bad of shape themselves as they clinched their division last week with a win over the Houston Texans. The big story line coming in to this game is the health of the league’s leading rusher by a country mile in DeMarco Murray. Murray broke a bone in his hand in last week’s game and had a procedure on the injured hand early in the week. Murray is practising and it’s looking like he will indeed suit up, but I am not making this pick solely on that fact. The Dallas offensive line is good enough to make anyone who carries the ball look good and Tony Romo is quietly having a fantastic season for the Cowboys. The line has been so good that Murray has already eclipsed the all-time rushing mark for the Cowboys set my Emmitt Smith and he still has two games in hand. You simply cannot do that type of running on your own so give huge credit to the line. Tony Romo’s 28 touchdown vs. 8 picks on the year aid him in boasting a QB rating of 110.0 so far, and three of those 8 picks came in the first game of the season when he was fresh off of back surgery. Therefore he’s thrown just 5 picks in 13 games since, with 27 touchdowns to boot. Dez Bryant is an absolute beast right now as he caught three touchdowns from Romo in last week’s victory, so I expect Romo to go right back to his favourite target this Sunday. Let’s not forget about the man throwing the ball for the Colts either. Andrew Luck leads the NFL with 4,492 passing yards this season and also leads the league with his 38 touchdowns. T.Y. Hilton, who should play despite a balky hamstring, has caught seven touchdowns this season from Luck and is currently 4th in the league in receiving yards this season. Dallas’ defence, despite improvement over last year because they couldn’t possibly by any worse, still is giving up lots of yardage and points this season. They give up over 23 points per game and it will be tough to keep Luck’s offense quiet considering they average 421 yards for per contest. The Colts’ defence isn’t winning any awards any time soon either as their defence gives up almost 23 points per game as well and will also have a tough time keeping the Dallas offense who averages 377 yards per game and 27 points per game quiet. Both teams have great offenses and sub-par defences so take the OVER this weekend and enjoy the shootout.