NFL Week 4: Best Player Prop Bets

NFL Week 4: Best Player Prop Bets

There isn’t anything else like an NFL Sunday during October. We have a packed card on Sunday with a few standout games that are going to be required viewing. All of the games I’ve circled are in the late card.

The Arizona Cardinals and LA Rams should be an entertaining one at SoFi Stadium, while the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers kick off at the same time.

The main event is of course what’s going on at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. It’s the return of Tom Brady to New England for his first game against the Patriots since leaving the organization.

It’s certainly the most hyped up regular season game on the schedule in 2021. All eyes will be on Brady to see how he performs against his old running mates. Bill Belichick will look to foil Brady’s return tonight.

We have Tom Brady props at TheSportsGeek for the big game tonight. Spoiler: I’m bullish in his return to New England on Sunday Night. Head below for the rest of our best prop bets for Week 4.

Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills Props

Devin Singletary Total Rushing Yards

This is primarily a play on how I see the game going in Buffalo. The Bills are likely going to jump out to a comfortable lead against the Houston Texas. This looks like a tough spot for Davis Mills and the Texans in Buffalo.

Knowing that the Texans are going to struggle to move the ball, I find it probable that the Bills are going to keep the ball on the ground. The Bills take a 14-0 lead and just grind away on the clock and don’t give the Texans much room.

Devin Singletary and Zack Moss are likely going to see a healthy dose of the ball in this one. Singletary should be afforded with enough chances to put up big numbers. He’s rushed for 180 yards and 1 touchdown on 5.1 yards per carry.

Washington stopped him for only 26 yards, but he should get back on track against the Texans. This is a rushing total that looks a touch too low in my opinion. He should reach into the 60’s on the ground.

Devin Singletary Rushing Yards
OVER 47.5

Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys Props

D.J. Moore Total Receiving Yards

D.J. Moore had breakout potential this season, and he’s been living up to expectations so far. Well, breakout in the sense that he finally receives recognition.

Moore had 1,000+ years the last two years, but hasn’t gotten much attention because he’s been on a losing steam. Moore has hauled in 22 receptions for 285 yards and a touchdown this season.

He’s had 80, 79, and 126 yards through three games. Moore had a season-high 126 yards on 8 receptions last week against the Texans.

His props continue to be undervalued, and he’s likely going to see plenty of targets in Arlington. I’m looking at Moore getting into the 90’s, so this number looks fairly generous.

D.J. Moore Receiving Yards
OVER 76.5

Ezekiel Elliott Total Receptions

The Carolina Panthers’ defense has been strong to open the season. They lead the NFL with 191 yards allowed per game. The Panthers have given up 146 passing yards per game, and have been a lockdown unit against the run with only 45 yards allowed per game.

They are going to be aggressive and have to take chances in this one. While Carolina has been moving bodies defensively, their schedule has not been difficult so far. They’ve played the Jets, Saints, and Texans.

The Saints aren’t bad, but they were coming off a big win and had a letdown. The Jets and Texans I don’t have to explain. In any case, the Panthers have been aggressive defensively and they’ve done everything asked of them.

To counter the Panthers’ defense, expect Dak Prescott to get rid of the ball quickly before getting into trouble. Ezekiel Elliott has been effective on the ground and through the air.

He’s had 7 receptions for 53 yards on 7.6 yards per reception through three games. Zeke should gather in at least 3 receptions in this one.

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions
OVER 2.5

Arizona Cardinals vs. LA Chargers Props

Kyler Murray Total Passing Yards

Kyle Murray is going to have to keep the ball in the air in this one. I’m not confident in the Cardinals’ defense bothering Matthew Stafford. This game is likely going to be a matter of whether Murray can keep up.

Out of pure necessity, expect Murray to pass the ball around the yard at SoFi Stadium. I’m sure that Kliff Kingsbury would like to establish the run somewhat, but the Rams likely won’t allow that.

Murray has passed for 1,005 yards with 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions through three games. He opened the season with 289 yards against a solid Tennessee defense, then 400 against the Vikings, and lastly 316 yards on the Jaguars.

The Rams have given up 281.3 yards per game through the air. That ranks near the back of the league, while their defense on the ground has been strong with 92.7 yards allowed per game. This number looks too low.

Kyler Murray Passing Yards
OVER 282.5

Christian Kirk Total Receiving Yards

Everyone knows about DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green, but there’s also an ultra underrated receiver Christian Kirk in the offense. Put Kirk in a bigger role on another team, and I’m sure he’d put up much bigger numbers.

He’s on the verge of breaking out this season for an easy career-high. Kirk’s career-high through his four-year career is 709 yards in 2019 as a sophomore.

He’s on pace to break that mark, as Kirk has racked up 239 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kirk is coming off a season-high 7 receptions and 104 yards against the Jags.

Kirk had at least 65 yards in three games this season, with 70, 65, and 104 yards. As Hopkins attracts all of the attention from the Cards’ defense, look for Kirk to check in with another productive outing. This number looks much too short.

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards
OVER 43.5

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Props

D.K. Metcalf Total Receptions

The secret has been out on D.K. Metcalf for a long time now. He is one of the most complete wide receiver in the NFL today. In the same mold as a Calvin Johnson, Metcalf is built like a tank and runs like a gazelle.

He had a breaking out party in his second season in 2020. Metcalf had 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns on 83 receptions.

That’s going to be tough to beat, and while defenses are giving him more attention, Metcalf has still been solid with 220 yards on 16 receptions and 2 touchdowns.

He’s been targeted 25 times, receiving plenty of attention from Russell Wilson. It’s like Metcalf and Tyler Lockett take turns having big games.

Even if Lockett goes off, Metcalf is still catching balls, though. He’s had 6 receptions the last two weeks, with 6 and 107 yards in his most recent outing versus the Vikings. I like at least 6 more receptions for Metcalf.

D.K. Metcalf Receptions
OVER 5.5

Deebo Samuels Total Receiving Yards

The Seahawks’ secondary has been getting cooked this season. This is not the Legion of Boom defense from when the Seahawks 49ers rivalry was at its peak.

Seattle has allowed 285.3 passing yards per game this season. They haven’t been strong on the ground either, so the Seahawks have had their problems on the defensive side of the ball.

In a game where I see Russ and the Seahawks needing to score, Deebo Samuels should play a role in forcing them to press the ball.

Samuels is having a big season with 334 yards and 1 touchdown on 20 receptions. He’s been involved in every game, and should find room against a beatable Seattle secondary in this one. His OVER prop is a good place to go at Levi’s Stadium.

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards
OVER 70.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots Props

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards

The game that everyone has had circled this season. Tom Brady’s big return to the place where he made a name for himself. This is much more than just any other game for Brady.

The guy that has been playing with a chip on shoulder his whole career is likely going to show up big for this one. It’s hard to bet against Brady going back to New England and not doing something with this opportunity.

Brady goes into Gillette Stadium with 1,087 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions on 68.8% completions. He’s coming off a quality performance against the Rams with 432 yards and a touchdown in the loss. I refuse to believe that Brady isn’t motivated to put on a show tonight.

Tom Brady Passing Yards
OVER 307.5

Antonio Brown Total Receiving Yards

There’s another former Patriot playing in this game and it isn’t Rob Gronwkoski. Gronk is out of this one with injured ribs, but Antonio Brown is going on Sunday night after clearing the COVID list.

Okay, maybe Brown can’t be compared to Brady and Gronk. He played what, one game with the Pats against the Dolphins before getting suspended? That said, Brown is probably coming back with a chip on his shoulder against the Pats as well.

Brown had a big game to open the season against the Cowboys with 5 receptions for 121 yards and a touchdown. He was quiet versus the Falcons with a reception for 17 yards, but should return to the lineup with some motivation.

Remember that Brown has been sitting around for the last ten days on the COVID list, so he should be the freshest receiver on the field tonight. It’s not like he was dealing with an injury. Look for Brown to have a couple of big plays in New England.

Antonio Brown Receiving Yards
OVER 58.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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