NFL Week 4 Survivor Pick

After two weeks that were almost too easy to start the season, things got a little tense for my survivor pick last week, as San Diego squeaked by the lowly Chiefs. Still, all wins count the same, and I will happily take it as I remain alive entering week 4. This week figures to be a whole lot more interesting than last week, as almost everyone took either the Chargers or Steelers and scraped by in less than impressive fashion. The only real chance people in your pool were eliminated is if they took the Patriots (which I advised against if you recall) or Eagles. But, that should change this week, as there appear to be a few possible options. Let’s take a look at the biggest favorites according to the point spreads: Green Bay, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, San Diego and Chicago. Well, for our purposes, we can eliminate the Chargers right away since we used them last week (and even if we hadn’t, I would find it tough to trust them after last week’s debacle). I also want to scratch off Tampa Bay. The Bucs are the kind of team that doesn’t generally win big, as they are more of a ‘find a way to get it done’ squad than one that buries anyone early, which is what you ideally want for a survivor pick. This is an especially dangerous pick considering the Colts took the Steelers to the limit last week, and they will once again have a primetime spotlight. I’m steering clear of this one thank you very much. Although I did pick them in my weekly picks to cover the spread, I don’t think the Bears are my number one choice either. Not that they are a bad pick, just that I think there are better ones available.

This leaves us with Green Bay, New Orleans and Philly. There is absolutely no way I am taking Philadelphia, as Michael Vick is not going to be at 100% playing with a broken (non-throwing) hand, and the Eagles have looked nowhere near the supposed powerhouse they are meant to be. I’m giving them at least a couple more weeks to sort themselves out before I throw my support their way. That takes us down to the Packers and Saints. The Packers are double digit favorites against the Broncos, so there is certainly a solid case to taking them. However, something in my gut tells me that between Denver and Jacksonville, the Broncos have a better shot at pulling off an upset. Firstly, Kyle Orton can get going from time to time, whereas Blaine Gabbert has had next to no experience in the NFL. Yes, New Orleans is on the road, which goes against my general advice of sticking to home teams where you can, but playing in a half filled Jacksonville stadium is just about the friendliest road game one can find. In the end, its a very close call between the two, but I lean towards the Saints if for no other reason than I think Denver are better than Jacksonville, and Green Bay will have better survivor matchups down the road. I’ll understand if you take the Packers this week, but just remember that if you’ve listened to me thus far you’re still alive, so why stop now?

1) New Orleans 2) Green Bay 3) Chicago

Already Used: Houston, Pittsburgh, San Diego