NFL Sunday returns with Week 5 action this afternoon and evening. Note that this is the final full card for a while because of bye weeks. Bye weeks begin in Week 6 with four teams having a break. The Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, and San Francisco 49ers all have Week 6 off. The following week there will be seven teams off for byes, so the NFL menu will be reduced soon.
These QBs ?⁰
Bills. Chiefs. Don’t miss it ‼️
— NFL (@NFL) October 9, 2021
Week 5 opened on Thursday night in Seattle at Lumen Field. The Los Angeles Rams overcome a slow start to pull away from the Seahawks for a 26-17 win. Matthew Stafford made some mistakes in the early stages of the game, but he settled in and finished the game with 365 yards. That was a refreshing change of pace on Thursday Night Football. It’s usually a pretty weak matchup on Thursdays.
The notable matchups on Sunday include the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Arizona Cardinals, and in the Sunday nighter, a mega matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead. The Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers should be a pretty good one in the late afternoon window as well. We’re going to look at props for all three games and others on the Week 5 card. Head below for our best NFL Week 5 prop bets.
Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Props
Tom Brady Total Passing Yards
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off the most highly anticipated game of the year. They return back home to Florida after a nailbiter at Gillette Stadium. Nick Folk put a long field goal off the uprights to give the Buccaneers a 19-17 win.
It was a slow moving game in the rain, with strong downpours impacting the trajectory of that one on Sunday night. Bill Belichick was well prepared for Brady.
It was more of a draw than anything. Brady has been known to play really well in bad weather, so I can’t say that it was only the weather that impacted him. The Patriots played well defensively.
The Bucs change gears and welcome the Dolphins in what looks like a harmless game. This could be a letdown spot for Tampa. That’s the angle on the Dolphins in this one. The Dolphins were a thorn in Brady’s side when he was with the Patriots.
They always showed up for him. I anticipate the Buccaneers keeping things simple. They get ahead, and try to chew up the clock. The Buccaneers might get too comfortable and allow the Dolphins to sneak in, but we’ll see.
Brady has passed for 233.8 yards per game with 67 touchdowns and 27 interceptions in 35 games versus the Dolphins. He has an adequate QBR of 92.8. In a game where the Bucs just want to grind out a win, I can’t see Brady going crazy.
Leonard Fournette Total Rushing Yards
It makes sense in a game where I see the Buccaneers keeping things simple, they are going to lean on Leonard Fournette often out of the backfield.
Fournette showed last week what he can do in an expanded role. The Bucs handed the ball off to Fournette 20 times and he ran for 92 yards on 4.6 yards per carry.
Let’s keep in mind that Fournette is only two years removed from a 1,152-yard season with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
He joined the Buccaneers during the season in 2020 and gained 367 yards and 6 touchdowns on 3.8 yards per carry. Fournette has been running better this season with some more time in the backfield.
The Dolphins have been below average against the run this season. They’ve allowed 136.8 rushing yards per game, with only five teams worse than the Dolphins against the run. Fournette should see a healthy workload in this one.
New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Football Team Props
Alvin Kamara Total Receiving Yards
Alvin Kamara has not been seeing as much of a workload in the passing game this season. He’s still getting receptions, but Kamara was essentially a dual-threat in the past as a running back and receiver. Kamara was a hybrid running back instead of a smash mouth tailback.
Kamara has made 14 receptions for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns as a receiver. He’s coming off a strong performance against the Giants with 120 yards on 26 carries. It wasn’t enough for the Saints in their overtime loss against the Giants, though.
Oddsmakers would have his receiving prop in the 50’s last year. They have brought it down to just 25.5 yards in Washington. There comes a point where there’s going to be value on Kamara to go OVER his receiving prop. I think this number is a tad too low for his potential to take a pass and run for a while.
Terry McLaurin Total Receiving Yards
The most underrated wide receiver in the NFL is Terry McLaurin. He’s not one of the most underrated, I would say he IS the most underrated wideout.
McLaurin is finally getting noticed, but when you’re thinking the best receivers in the NFL, he’s not going to get recognized.
McLaurin is coming off a monster performance with 6 receptions, 123 yards, and 2 touchdowns. It’s his second game this season where McLaurin eclipsed 107 yards.
Through four games in 2021, McLaurin has recorded 354 yards with 3 touchdowns on 14.2 yards per reception. The Ohio State Buckeye continues to get better with each passing week, doing this all without the best quarterback.
He’ll take on former teammate Marshon Lattimore on Sunday. The Saints have stuffed the run for second in the league with 66 yards allowed per game. However, they’re getting bombed versus the pass.
The Saints are giving up 283.3 yards allowed per game. There should be more chances for McLaurin in Week 5. 71.5 yards looks too small here.
Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers Props
Baker Mayfield Total Passing Yards
Baker Mayfield has been bothered by a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder since three weeks back against the Houston Texans. While it isn’t the most serious injury, it could be bothering him.
Mayfield was wild last week with 155 yards on just 15-for-33 passing. He misfired several times, including what should have been an easy pitch and catch to a wide open OBJ deep.
Was it his shoulder? Maybe, maybe not. What I do know is that it can’t help. At a minimum it’s irritating him.
He has passed for 935 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 65.5% completions. Mayfield hasn’t been asked to do much because of how good the defense is playing. He’s fortunate the defense is playing as good as it has been.
The Chargers should have the edge on Mayfield in the secondary. They’ve been one of the best in the NFL with 192.5 yards allowed per game through the air.
Derek Carr passed for 196 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception last week. Even more impressively, they were able to hold Patrick Mahomes to 260 yards. Expect the Browns to lean heavily on Nick Chubb.
Nick Chubb Total Rushing Yards
Where did you think I was going with this after my comment above? Nick Chubb is going to see a lot of carries in this one. The Chargers’ secondary has been in lockdown mode, but they’ve been beatable on the ground.
The Chargers are fifth in the league with 192.5 yards against per game through the air. However, offenses have been able to run the ball on the Chargers with ease. The Chargers have conceded 139.5 yards per game on the ground.
For a defense that has been playing so well, they haven’t been good against defending the run. Chubb is going to see a heavy dose in this one. He has gained 362 yards and 3 touchdowns on 5.2 yards per carry. Chubb has run for 83, 95, 84, and 100 yards this season. This prop looks too low to me.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Props
Trey Lance Total Rushing Yards
Trey Lance will make his first start in the NFL on Sunday in the desert. The Cardinals are looking to stay perfect against a divisional foe in this one. They are coming off a 37-20 win over the LA Rams in impressive form last week.
The Cardinals showed that they belong in that game. Now they take on a new challenge against rookie Trey Lance. Lance has been used in spot duty during certain sets this year. He took over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo last week. Jimmy G is out this week with a calf injury.
Lance took over last week and immediately hit the ground running. He gained 41 rushing yards on 7 attempts for 5.9 yards per carry. Lance also passed for 157 yards and 2 touchdowns. It’s going to be tough for Jimmy G to get his job back if Lance plays well.
He’s a dual-threat quarterback that can win games with his arm or legs. As a rookie in a big game, expect Lance to take off on the ground often. He will likely be a little cautious and run when in doubt. There will also be calls for Lance on the ground.
A.J. Green Total Receptions
A.J. Green has been getting more and more comfortable in the Cardinals’ offense. He’s been more than just a veteran leader. Kyler Murray has been looking for the reliable wide receiver frequently this season.
Green is going into Sunday with 15 receptions for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns on 16.5 yards per reception. After just 3 receptions for 44 yards against the Vikings, Green has steadily been heating up after missing the season opener.
He followed up with 5 receptions for 115 yards on 22.4 yards per reception. Green had another productive outing against the Rams last week. He hauled in 5 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. Expect Green to bring in at least 4 receptions on Sunday.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Props
Josh Allen Total Rushing Yards
If you didn’t know by now, Josh Allen has some legs. Despite his big stature, Allen can motor if he has to on the ground. Defenses can’t take his rushing ability lightly.
Allen has gained 129 yards on 5.4 yards per carry. He’s also chipped in with a touchdown on the ground.
His big arm makes it difficult for defenses to respect his running skills. In three of four games this season, Allen has finished with at least 35 yards on the ground.
The Chiefs’ defense has been struggling on the ground and through the air. They’ve been disappointing with 146 yards allowed per game against the run.
Only the Philadelphia Eagles have been worse versus the run than the Chiefs. Look for Allen to find enough room to go for more than 35 yards. This one looks too short.
Zack Moss Total Rushing Attempts
Zack Moss and Devin Singletary have been an excellent 1-2 punch for the Bills in the backfield. Both are seeing an equal share of the field, and it’s worked out well for the Bills.
They are fifth in the NFL with 145.3 rushing yards allowed per game. Moss has played a major role in that.
After missing the season opener, Moss has been receiving a healthy workload. He’s received 35 carries through three games with 147 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Moss has gained a decent 4.2 yards per carry to continue to see carries. In his last two outings, he had 13 carries against Washington and 14 against the Texans.
As I alluded to above, the Chiefs struggle against the run. The Bills are likely going to attempt to keep Mahomes off the field with plenty of action on the ground. Moss should get more than 8 carries Sunday night.