A nice start Thursday night allowed our Indianapolis -3 wager to hold on and come through, and we’ve now won three of our past four selections. This Sunday’s cars id filled with intriguing wagers, a lot of short home underdogs, pretty much all of which I see value on. We’ll focus on one of those situations in Miami today, as the Dolphins return from England to host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
Green Bay enters this contest winners of back-to-back games against depleted Bears and Vikings squads. Right now, there’s a perception that this is again an elite team that resembles Packers’ teams of years past, and that’s simply not the case. They’ve got some glaring holes when you look past their stellar passing attack, and the Dolphins are deep enough and solid enough at home to exploit those deficiencies. It promises to be an interesting Week 6 of football action and just like every week, your betting needs are taken care of here at The Sports Geek. Read on below for our game analysis and official prediction.
Packers vs. Dolphins Betting Odds:
Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-105)
@ Miami Dolphins +3.5 (-115)
Over 49 (-115)
Under 49 (-105)
Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv
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Packers vs. Dolphins Pick:
For all of the nice pieces Green Bay has, they’re pretty much clustered into the skill positions on offense. Rodgers, Cobb, Nelson, and it pretty much stops there. This is a one-dimensional football team right now, that’s constantly heralded as one of the game’s upper-echelon squads for whatever reason. Aaron Rodgers is great, no doubt about it, but Miami head coach Joe Philbin knows the former California product better than anyone. Philbin used to be Rodgers’ offensive coordinator, and has had two full weeks coming back from the UK to prepare for his former quarterback. He knows the weaknesses, and should be able to devise a limit to at the very list contain his ability. Philbin also boasts one of top pass-rushing defenses in the NFL. Expect a lot of havoc from Miami’s defensive front, disrupting the time and rhythm of Rodgers.
Look for Miami to severely limit the run game, as they always do. Fantasy owners of Eddie Lacy should be anticipating yet another disappointing outing, and this will force Rodgers to only look to the pass. The Dolphins will rush Rodgers at will, and it won’t be as easy as it typically is for Green Bay when it comes to moving the chains.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins scoring attack isn’t all that great, but then again, neither is the Packers’ defense. This stop unit is the main weakness of Green Bay and likely will be what prevents them from seriously contending in 2014. They enter this game ranked 26th in the NFL in overall defensive efficiency, and cannot stop the run to save their lives. Both of Lamar Miller and the returning Knowshon Moreno are due for big games on the ground. This should put the enigmatic Ryan Tannehill in favourable situations throughout the game, boding well for the ‘Fins offense. Miami will be able to move the ball on what’s expected to be a hot day against the Packers’ defense.
Overall, this is an exceptional spot for Miami. Off the bye week with the storied Packers coming to town, they’ll be raring to go. The Packers are forced to travel fresh off a perfect win against an inferior opponent. Philbin will be ready for Rodgers, and after playing three straight games vs. divisional opponents, it wouldn’t stun me to see a flat outing from Green Bay. In Miami’s last six games as home underdogs, they haven’t lost any of them. They’re a solid team in the heat, and expect them to make it seven on Sunday. Back the Dolphins +3.5 points, and don’t be afraid to sprinkle a bit of that on the moneyline.
PICK = Dolphins +3.5 (-115)