Patriots Bills Spread Line Odds and Predictions NFL Week 16

The 12-2 Patriots will be trying to extend their winning streak to 7 this week over the 4-10 Buffalo Bills. A win would give the Pats home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and with the way they’re playing right now, that’s a scary thought. The game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. EST.

The Pats beat the Packers 31-27 last week in New England, and during their 6 game winning streak they’ve beaten 5 playoff teams (Pitt, Jets, GB, Chi and Indi). And the impressive thing is they’ve done it all with a fairly balanced offense. They started the year as one of the worst running teams, but after trading Laurence Maroney, they gave BenJarvis Green Ellis and Danny Woodhead a bigger role in the run game, and the now rank 15th on the year, a huge change from their bottom 10 ranking through the first half of the season. Woodhead and Green Ellis can do exactly what Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris did for the Pats for so many years. They can pass catch, pick up the blitz, run in between the blocks when needed and they are happy with their role. The Pats will be successful running the ball this week, as the Bills defense is the worst in the league. They give up 158 ypg on the ground.

Buffalo beat the Dolphins last week in Dolphin Stadium, to claim their 4th victory of the year and first against a team with a winning record. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick went 16/26 for 223 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. The Dolphins game plan should have been to run the ball against the Bills, but they couldn’t get it going early on, and had to rely on kicker Dan Carpenter. Carpenter missed 3 FG’s including a would be game winner in the dying seconds. The Bills offense is better than their defense, but not by much. They’ve got a 24th ranked pass game and 17th ranked run game. Their #1 receiver Steve Johnson leads the team with 10 TDs, and Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a pleasant surprise for the Bills since taking over at QB. This week will be a huge test to see how far the Bills have come this year. They’ve lost a handful of close games, including OT games to the Ravens and Chiefs, and they lost to a last minute FG to Chicago. They seem to play better against playoff teams, and they’ll be looking to prevent the sweep from the Pats after losing to them 38-30 earlier in the year.

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Patriots vs. Bills Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

New England Patriots – 9
@ Buffalo Bills + 9

Game Total:

Over (-110)
45
Under (-110)

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Patriots vs. Bills Prediction for Week 16 Betting:

Game Total Prediction (Top Play): In their first meeting of the year, the Patriots won 38-30 in what was an entertaining offensive battle. Fitzpatrick went 20/28 for 247 yrds and 2 TDs, and it was our first glimpse at his ability as a QB. But Brady was his usual self, lighting up the Bills secondary for 252 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs. This week’s matchup will involve less scoring and more running. The Pats will run all over the Bills poor rush D. The forecast for Sunday calls for 40% chance of rain with a high of 23, hardly throwing conditions for any team. The number is too high for me, and in recent years in Buffalo the Under has been the top play. The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Buffalo and 17-6 in the last 23 meetings overall, and I’m making this my top play because of this.

Top Play Prediction = Under 45.

Spread Prediction: The Patriots are playing the best football in the NFL right now, and have been over the last several weeks. The Bills are coming off a huge divisional win over the Dolphins, and I don’t see them keeping this one close. Their defense just isn’t good enough to keep the Patriots off the board, and the Pats will be up for this one as they can clinch home field throughout the playoffs with a win. I like the Pats at -10, and the situation for New England makes this a good play. The Pats are 4-1 ATS after an ATS loss (they lost to the Packers last week and they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 in Buffalo.

Prediction = New England -9.

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