Patriots vs. Bills NFL Pick – Week 4

The Buffalo Bills welcome the New England Patriots for a big showdown at New Era Stadium in Orchard Park. The Bills go into Week 4 undefeated, with wins over the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. Meanwhile, the Patriots enter with an undefeated record as well. Unlike the Bills, there have been no blemishes on their record. The Patriots’ defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown yet. Conversely, the Bills had to really exert a lot of effort to beat those three teams, all of which likely aren’t going to the playoffs.

The Bills had to erase a 16-0 deficit in Week 1 against the Jets, and they barely beat a terrible Bengals team by a score of 21-17 last week. In other words, it hasn’t been smooth sailing for the Bills. This wasn’t an easy road to get to 3-0. Meanwhile, the Patriots could have taken a nap against their opponents and still won. The only reason the Jets scored 14 points on the Pats is because they went to Jarrett Stidham. Tom Brady was put on the bench in what was a blowout and Stidham threw a pick-6 to ruin the shutout. If the starters were playing the entire game, the Pats likely win 30-0.

That’s not the only game the Patriots looked like a perfect team. The most impressive was a Week 1 showing against the Pittsburgh Steelers. It played out in similar fashion, with the Patriots capturing a 33-3 victory over the Steelers. Brady and the offense are going to do their thing, that’s expected, but the most impressive part of their blowouts have been the defense.

I touched on how dominant their secondary is going to be this season prior to the season opener, but this good has caught some people off guard. The secondary has been impossible to pass on thus far. Their depth is unmatched, so as long as they stay healthy, it’s going to have to take a high-powered offense, like say the Chiefs, to put a real dent in them. Josh Allen is going to give it a shot on Sunday afternoon in Buffalo. Head below for our free Patriots vs. Bills pick.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Week 4 Betting Odds:


  • Patriots -7.5(-110)
  • Bills +7.5(-110)


  • Over 42(-110)
  • Under 42(-110)

Betting odds provided by

Patriots vs. Bills Pick:

The Patriots have looked like the most well-rounded team in the NFL thus far. They can win with their offense or defense. Over the years the Patriots have won championships in a lot of different ways. Some of their teams emphasized offense and others relied on defense. When they won back-to-back Super Bowls, it was the defense first and then Tom Brady.

Brady wasn’t regarded as one of the best in the league at that point. He was a good quarterback who allowed his defense to dictate games. Later on his career, we realized his full potential and the Patriots developed into an offensive juggernaut.

In 2019, the identity of this team is a little bit of both. From what we’ve watched so far, the Patriots look like a team who can win with offense and defense. Brady is just getting warmed up and hasn’t had to bring out the big guns yet. The defense has taken care of this season for the most part.

New England have allowed an average of 199 yards per game, which is 1st in the league by a wide margin. The next closest team, the 49ers, have yielded 283.3 yards per game. They’ve surrendered only 162.3 passing yards a game and just 36.7 rushing per game, both good for 1st in the NFL.

The Bills enter Sunday having scored 22 points per game for 17th in the NFL. I don’t know if Josh Allen has the tools to frustrate the New England secondary. He’s made some exciting plays this season and it looks like the Bills made a good choice in drafting him. However, Allen doesn’t look like a guy ready to dice up this Patriots’ secondary. He has thrown 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 64.1% completions.

While the New England defense are turning heads, their scoring a lot of points while doing it. The Pats are 2nd in the league with an average of 35.3 points scored per game. That is in part of the defense setting the Patriots up in prime position on the field. Everyone gets hyped up about early season wins by the Bills. It never fails. They are a team heading in the right direction with Allen at the helm, but there is still work left to be done. The Pats are on another level and I see them pulling away late to win and cover.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.