Patriots vs. Bills NFL Pick – Week 8

The New England Patriots embark on their yearly trip to Buffalo for a meeting with the Bills on Monday Night Football. On paper this doesn’t look like the most competitive game. Maybe a game that people are turning off by halftime and going to sleep. However, that’s why they play the games, so we’ll see what unfolds on Monday night in Orchard Park. It should be a fun atmosphere at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Yes, I still call it Ralph Wilson instead of New Era Field. Buffalo is an interesting place to go watch a game.

Behind people smashing themselves through tables tailgating, and flying dildos, there is a football game taking place. Bill Belichick knows that much and he’s had his team playing exceptional football recently. The offense has found a major groove with the emergence of Josh Gordon and the return of Julian Edelman. Their offense was led by Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan against the Lions the last time we saw the Patriots on MNF.

Dorsett has taken a small role in the offense, as Gordon has jumped in and taken those targets away from him. Gordon is coming off his first 100-yard performance as a Patriot. Everything has been sticking to his hands. Whatever Brady has thrown his way, it’s usually resulted in a reception. He doesn’t have the wheels that Randy Moss had when he joined the Patriots, but Gordon is making it extremely difficult for defenses to cover everyone. Rob Gronkowski missed last week, and all indications have him getting the green light against his hometown team.

The New England offense didn’t need Gronk last week, as they put up 38 points in a 38-31 win over the Bears. Gronkowski is working on a performance-based contract. If he hits certain milestones in yards, receptions, and touchdowns, he will earn more. Needless to say, he wants to be out there on the field. His presence will put a ton of stress on a Buffalo defense that can’t cover all of Brady’s targets. The Colts cut through the Bills for 37 points in a 37-5 win last week. With Derek Anderson getting the nod at quarterback again this week, the defense must find a way to keep the Bills in this game. This will only be his second start with the Bills. Head below for our free Patriots vs. Bills pick.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Week 8 Betting Odds:

Patriots -13.5(-110)
vs. Bills +13.5(-110)

Over 44.5(-110)
Under 44.5(-110)

Betting odds provided by

Patriots vs. Bills Pick:

Without much time to prepare, Anderson jumped in the saddle for the Bills last week against the Colts. Against a poor defense, it was a poor performance by Anderson. He threw for no touchdowns with 3 interceptions. He finished with an embarrassing QB rating of 39.8. We just watched Derek Carr and the Raiders move the ball on the Colts on Sunday.

It was the first start for Anderson since the 2016 season. He passed for 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions as a member of the Carolina Panthers. Belichick is a master at making inexperienced and quarterbacks that aren’t prepared feel uncomfortable. Anderson has experience, but he is probably the rustiest starting QB in the league at the moment.

The Bills did get some good news when they found out LeSean McCoy cleared concussion protocol. Expect a heavy dose of McCoy, but Belichick isn’t stupid and is aware what the Bills are going to be doing in this game. The Pats will force Anderson to complete plays on plenty of 3rd and longs this evening. Don’t expect that to go too well for the Bills.

In turn, expect the Patriots to be set up with prime field position all game long. Brady and company are likely going to be dealing with short fields often in this game. New England have scored more than 35 points for an average of 39.25 points in their last four games. With Brady having a host of targets to fire at now, the offense is rolling. Sony Michel will be out, but James White is more than capable at running back.

The Patriots have scored an average of 33.6 points on the Bills in their last three meetings. They beat them by an average of 19 points in those three outings. The Bills’ offense is in much worse shape now than then. If you want a probable preview of this game, you might want to watch the Dolphins and Patriots from four weeks ago. The Patriots won 38-7 with 3 touchdown passes from Brady. Note that there might be a bit of wind Monday night in Buffalo. That isn’t going to impact Brady’s darts as much as it will Anderson’s noodle arm. A 34-13 win for the Patriots looks like a likely scenario.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.