New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills NFL Pick – Week 13

The NFL is set up with another great slate of action throughout Week 13. One game will be up on the board throughout Monday night to close out the week of action. The New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. These two teams have been great early in the season and will look for another big win in this one. This game will kick off at around 8:15 PM Eastern time on ESPN.

New England has earned a record of 8-4 throughout this season, which has them in the top spot of the AFC East. The Patriots have won six games in a row and will look to remain red hot in this matchup. New England is coming off a big win against the depleted Tennessee Titans last week. The Patriots will look to come out fast on the road in this matchup.

The Bills have put up a record of 7-4 so far this season, which has them in second place of the AFC East. Buffalo is coming off a win in their last matchup, but have struggled a bit as of late, losing two of their last four before that. The Bills will look to come out fast in this one. Buffalo is coming off a win on Thursday Night Football against the New Orleans Saints.

These two teams are in the middle of a heated battle for the AFC East and a win in this one could go a long way. Buffalo will look to build on their extra days of practice entering this matchup. The Patriots will look to keep their red hot streak going. If either team can grab an early lead in this one, it could be enough for the win.

Patriots vs. Bills Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Money Line Totals
New England Patriots +2 ½ (+103) +122 Over 41 (-110)
Buffalo Bills -2 ½ (-123) -142 Under 41 (-110)


Betting Data New England Patriots Buffalo Bills
2021 Record 8-4 7-4
2021 Home 3-4 3-2
2021 Away 5-0 4-2
2021 ATS 8-4 6-4-1
2021 ATS Home 4-3 2-2-1
2021 ATS Away 4-1 4-2
2021 O/U 6-6 5-6
2021 O/U Home 4-3 2-3
2021 O/U Away 2-3 3-3

Patriots vs. Bills NFL Game Preview

The Patriots and Bills met up twice throughout last season. Zack Moss had two rushing touchdowns in the first meeting to help lead Buffalo to a 24-21 win at home. Josh Allen had four passing touchdowns in the second game, including three to Stefon Diggs. The Bills were able to dominate on the road to earn a 38-9 win and sweep the season series.

These two teams have met up 122 times throughout their histories entering this game. New England leads the all-time series with a record of 76-45-1. The Bills have won their last two games against the Patriots, but had lost seven in a row before that. Buffalo will look to keep this winning streak going on Monday night.

New England looks a bit different after facing off against the Bills last season. Mac Jones is now starting at Quarterback, rather than Cam Newton. Josh Allen is still the starter for Buffalo. The Patriots’ defense is also much improved this season and will look to shut down the Bills offense. Buffalo will look to find a hole in the defense to grab a big win at home.

Opening Odds and Line Movement

The line for this matchup kicked off at -7 in favor of the Bills. The spread has dropped down to -2 ½ only a couple of days before kickoff.

The total for this one opened up at 48 points. The over/ under has dropped down to 41 points. The lower total makes sense with it being a divisional game and both defenses playing well on the season.

The spread has dropped for -7 to -2 ½ over the course of this line opening up. The seven point spread is a bit high, but I think it has dropped a bit low. Buffalo is looking to pick up their play and end New England’s winning streak in this one.

Head to Head Betting Trends

  • Patriots 7-3 SU in last 10 matchups
  • Patriots 5-4-1 ATS in last 10 meetings
  • Under is 5-4-1 in last 10 games
  • Under is 3-2 in last five games in Buffalo

New England Patriots Betting Trends

  • 1-2 SU as an underdog
  • 2-1 ATS as an underdog
  • 2-1 SU vs division opponent
  • 2-1 ATS vs division opponent
  • 3-2 SU when playing team with winning record
  • 4-1 ATS when playing team with winning record

Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

  • 6-4 SU as a favorite
  • 6-4 ATS as a favorite
  • 0-1 SU when playing on Monday Night
  • 0-1 ATS when playing on Monday Night
  • 3-0 SU against division
  • 3-0 ATS against division
  • 0-1 SU against team with winning record
  • 0-1 ATS against team with winning record

Free Bet and Game Prediction: Buffalo Bills -2 ½ (-123)

These two teams will meet in a heated divisional battle on Monday Night as both teams look for the division lead. Buffalo has struggled a bit as of late, but I think they can get going against this Patriots team. New England has been the hottest team in the NFL recently, but I think they will struggle against a well rested Bills team.

Mac Jones has put together a strong rookie season for the Patriots. Jones has passed for 2850 yards, 16 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Josh Allen has also been playing well for Buffalo. Allen has thrown for 3071 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has also rushed for 383 yards and three touchdowns.

The Bills are slight favorites entering this matchup and I agree with this line. The Patriots have not lost a game on the road this season, but I do not think New England can keep this up. Buffalo is also coming off a game on Thursday rather than Sunday. As only slight favorites entering this game, I really like the value on the Bills.

The Bet
Buffalo Bills -2.5

Patriots vs. Bills Betting Recap:

  • Oddmaker: BetOnline
  • Money Lines: New England Patriots (+122) vs. Buffalo Bills (-142)
  • Spread: Bills -2 ½ (-123)
  • Over/Under: 41 Points
  • Prediction: Patriots 17 – Bills 20
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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