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Patriots vs. Bills Pick – NFL Week 6

After last week’s destruction against the Bengals, many are certainly ready to claim Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are back, but let’s hold off on that for just one more week. While it was certainly ridiculous seeing the bold proclamations that the Pats were done, beating one team in one week in a great spot, does not completely take away from the fact that this is not the Patriots of previous seasons. There are holes no doubt, and going into a rabid Ralph Wilson stadium may not be the best of environments on this Week 6 Sunday afternoon. Betting the NFL is very reactionary and the amount of people who have just slid right back onto the Pats bandwagon has been humourous to observe. This is a tough spot, and the Bills will be ready for a key AFC East divisional showdown. Read on below for our wager and further game thoughts.

Patriots vs. Bills Betting Odds:

Spread:
New England Patriots -3 (-110)
@ Buffalo Bills +3 (-110)

Total:
Over 45 (-110)
Under 45 (-110)

Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv

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Patriots vs. Bills Pick:

Full credit to the New England Patriots for a) coming through for us here at The Sports Geek and b) silencing the doubters on a nationally televised stage. That said, we can’t just ignore everything we’ve seen so far in 2014, and there was a reason they were home underdogs last week. They haven’t been all that great so far this season, and my feeling is that it’s about to get a bit worse as they enter Ralph Wilson Stadium today.

For whatever reason, Tom Brady is still struggling on his downfield throws. The Patriots don’t possess a deep ball threat and that’s a major weakness. Bad news for Brady is that the Bills’ have a great pass rush, one that gave Matthew Stafford all kinds of issues last week. Buffalo gets to the quarterback at will and New England won’t have an answer for it. It should also be noted that this game marks the first time new Buffalo owner Terry Pegula is introduced to the crowd and he should get a raucous reception for committing to the team’s future in upstate New York. It’ll be loud and confusing along the Pats’ O-Line, and Buffalo will be able to take full advantage. Buffalo only concedes 2.93 yards per carry against the rush. They’ll be dominant and turn Brady and New England into a one-dimensional offense early on.

As bad as Buffalo’s quarterbacking situation is, believe it or not, Kyle Orton is an upgrade over E.J. Manuel. Orton’s experience allows him to appropriately read and react to defensive schemes, and it helped out the Bills’ attack immensely last week. Buffalo’s improved passing attack will also be buoyed by increased success in the run game. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller should be able to run all over New England as the Patriots are currently conceding 4.63 yards per carry. That’s the 24th overall ranking in the NFL right now.

This is a favourable spot for the Bills and look for them to ride their rabid home crowd to an impressive victory. New England is looking forward to their Thursday night match-up in Week 7 and the Bills always get up for playing New England in Orchard Park. The road team in Buffalo games has only covered five of the past 22 contests, while New England has only covered one of their last eight as road favourites. Expect those trends to continue on Sunday. Bills plus the field goal.

PICK = Bills +3 (-110)