Patriots vs. Jets NFL Pick – Week 7

The New England Patriots make the short trip to New Jersey for a meeting with the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. The Patriots will be looking to stay perfect at 7-0 with a win on Monday night. After defeating the Washington Redskins, the 49ers are the only team in the NFL with a record of 7-0.

New England can change that with a win against the Jets on Monday Night Football. The odds and common sense suggest that the Patriots are going to be winners in this one. However, that’s why they play the game and the Patriots are playing at less than 100%.

The Patriots will be without the services of Josh Gordon against the Jets on Monday night. That deprives the Patriots of a guy to stretch the field to give Tom Brady easy passes underneath. They had two of those guys in Antonio Brown and Gordon, for one week anyway, and now the Patriots are going to depend on Philip Dorsett to stretch the field. Dorsett missed two games because of a minor injury, so his return will be welcome, but they’ll have to swap Gordon out for Dorsett.

N’Keal Harry is expected to make his debut for the Patriots as well. He had to sit out the first six games of the season after getting injured in a preseason game. His presence will certainly help upon his return. Harry has incredible hands and has the potential of catching anything thrown his way. Don’t expect the Patriots to implement him into the offense fully, though. They will take it easy with him, especially coming off an ankle injury. He will not be eligible to return until November because of IR rules.

The way the Patriots’ defense has been playing, they could go out there and run a triple-option and still win games. New England will need Gordon for more important games down the road, but his absence shouldn’t hurt too much in a matchup against the Jets. If Sam Darnold and the Jets play how they did in a 24-22 win over the Cowboys last week, it could be a game tonight. They are going to need some help from the Pats with a sloppy game. Head below for our free Patriots vs. Jets pick.

New England Patriots vs. N.Y. Jets NFL Week 7 Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Patriots -9.5(-115)
  • Jets +9.5(-105)

Total:

  • Over 43.5(-110)
  • Under 43.5(-110)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Patriots vs. Jets Pick:

The Patriots’ defense has been playing out of their minds this season. Tom Brady is obviously a valuable guy, but the defense as a unit have been the highlight of the year in New England. If we’re going to focus on one player who has made the biggest impact, we have to talk about cornerback Stephon Gilmore.

Gilmore has been an impact player on the Patriots, as he’s shutdown any wide receiver thrown his way. He also has a pick-6 for a score and is an interception away from surpassing the 2 interceptions he had a season ago. There is some debate regarding who the best corner in the NFL is, but as far as at the moment is concerned, my vote goes to Gilmore.

The Patriots enter 1st in the NFL with just 8 points allowed per game. That’s about a field goal better than the much talked about 49ers’ defense. After neutralizing the Redskins in slop yesterday, the 49ers moved into 1st with just 223.5 yards allowed per game, though. The Pats are 2nd with 234.7 yards per game, so they could move into 1st with a dominant performance against Darnold and the Jets.

Darnold is coming off an impressive showing against the Cowboys in his return to the starting lineup. He passed for 338 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Cowboys were banged up defensively, though, and weren’t the same team that was playing last night against the Eagles. And they were able to make adjustments after allowing 21 points in the first-half.

Darnold is likely going to have difficulties against the Patriots’ defense Monday night. The Pats have been dominating against passers, with only 4.6 passing yards allowed per play. They’ve allowed just 161 passing yards per game for 2nd in the league. Keep in mind that the Jets are going to be dealing with a plethora of injuries on their offensive line, so they won’t be at full strength for this tough matchup.

The only thing that concerns me with this spread is the New England offense, go figure. The Patriots’ offensive line has been less than impressive. Brady has been getting hurried and he’s been brought down for 7 sacks in the last two games. Both of their tight ends haven’t been practicing this week, so that could prove to be a major issue.

Brady will likely still connect underneath with pass completions to Julian Edelman, but don’t expect an explosive night. They go through the motions like we saw against the Giants last Thursday night to do just enough to win. The Jets’ defense will be amped up to play well in primetime against Brady, though it’s hard to expect Darnold and the Jets to effectively move the ball. The spread is sharp here. I could see anywhere from a 13-7 point win for the Patriots in a low-scoring contest. With that in mind, the UNDER looks like the best option on Monday Night Football. After going 1-0 on Thursday Night Football and 3-0 yesterday, this will be for a sweep in Week 7.

The Bet
UNDER 43.5
Kyle E
Kyle E / author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.