Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick – NFL Week 16

On Sunday afternoon, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs clash at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 16. The Steelers are in the playoff race at 7-6-1 on the season.

From what I’ve watched from the Steelers most of the time this season, they don’t look like a playoff team. They’ve looked disinterested for most of the year, but the defense has been able to keep them in the hunt.

Ben Roethlisberger has been looking to dodge the pass rush behind a bad offensive line. Whether it helped Roethlisberger indicate that this will be his final season in Pittsburgh or not, he’s taking a punishment this year.

The Steelers are coming off a hard-fought 19-13 win versus the Tennessee Titans last week. That was a crucial win for the Steelers if they want to stay afloat for the playoffs.

They’ve just been too inconsistent for taking them seriously as contenders, though. The Steelers have won two of their last five attempts, with a loss at Minnesota, 36-28, a week before beating the Titans.

Pittsburgh’s defense watched the film against the Titans and took it upon themselves to be better prepared. They certainly did against the Titans despite an iffy performance for the Steelers’ offense.

The Chiefs enter Week 16 with a bevy of players on the Covid list. Patrick Mahomes isn’t on the list, knock on wood, but his offense is dealing with multiple players waiting to come off and get the greenlight.

Kansas City currently has 13 players on the Covid list, which could grow by kick-off. The most notable additions are Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Kicker Harrison Butker is also in health and safety protocol.

Hill tested positive after Kelce did, so I see a better chance of Kelce clearing the list in time for Sunday, but he is OUT for the moment. The Chiefs are coming off a 34-28 win over the LA Chargers on Thursday Night Football.

After a slow start, the defense has been flying around. They have a win in seven straight attempts going into Week 16. Up to 10-4 on the year, the Chiefs have a two-game advantage over the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West.

Head below for our free Steelers vs. Chiefs pick on December 26, 2021.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds and Team Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Pittsburgh Steelers -8.5 (-110) OFF Over 45.5 (-110)
KC Chiefs +8.5 (-110) OFF Under 45.5 (-110)
Team Data Pittsburgh Steelers KC Chiefs
Overall Record 7-6-1 10-4
ATS Record 6-8-0 7-7-0
Away/Home Record 2-4 6-2
ATS Away/Home 2-5-0 2-5-0
Points Per Game 20.8 27.5
Points Against Per Game 23.9 21.1
Passing Yards Per Game 232.9 287.4
Rushing Yards Per Game 84.6 109.9

Steelers vs. Chiefs Prediction:

Ben Roethlisberger is doing his best with what he has to work with on the Steelers. There are weapons to work with, but his offensive line is wearing down late in the season. Through the Steelers’ last three games, Roethlisberger has been sacked 8.57% of snaps.

Only five teams in the NFL have kept their quarterback upright more during the last three weeks. Last week against the Titans, Roethlisberger dropped back was tackled over 10% of snaps versus the Titans.

It doesn’t look good against a Chiefs’ defense that has improved tenfold after nothing was going right for them across the first two months of the season. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has done a fine job fixing what ailed the Chiefs in the early stages of 2021.

After a 27-3 loss against the Titans on October 24, the Chiefs conceded 10.83 points per game in their next six games. They fell off with 28 points allowed against the Chargers, but the Steelers aren’t the Chargers and the Chiefs are back home in a friendly environment.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends:


  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games versus the AFC
  • 0-6 ATS in their previous six games after covering the spread
  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games after a win
  • UNDER is 6-1-1 in their previous eight games after allowing less than 15 points
  • UNDER is 8-3-1 in their previous 12 games after a win


  • 5-0 ATS in their previous five games
  • 5-0 ATS in their previous five games as a betting favorite
  • UNDER is 4-1 in thier previous five games as a betting favorite at Arrowhead Stadium
  • UNDER is 8-2 in their previous ten games in Week 16
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games at Arrowhead Stadium

The Chiefs are 24th in league with 366.4 yards against per game. That doesn’t sound good, but they were hemorrhaging many yards in the first quarter of the season. Any offense up against the Chiefs was moving the ball.

That has changed since then, though. Chris Jones was absent last week, giving Kirk Cousins a free pass in the pocket. Unfortunately for Roethlisberger, Jones was removed from the Covid list and was back at practice this week.

Jones has been dealing with a bad ankle, but Covid isn’t a problem now and he was back on the practice field preparing for the Steelers. The Pittsburgh offensive line hasn’t been giving Roethlisberger much protection recently, and if Jones is active, he’s going to be on his back plenty.

The Steelers are best against the pass. They have to deal with Patrick Mahomes, though the Chiefs are likely to be down weapons because of Covid. The Steelers have conceded 223.6 yards against per game through the air. Running the ball hasn’t been that tough, though.

Pittsburgh has to toughen up at the point of contact, as they’re getting ripped for 143.9 rushing yards per game. There’s only one team in the NFL that is worse versus the run than the Steelers. The Chiefs should move the ball on the ground regardless of their receiver situation.

I’m looking at a 26-17 or 24-17 final score at Arrowhead in this AFC matchup. Consider the UNDER in a game too tough to call on the spread.


Steelers vs. Chiefs Pick
UNDER 45.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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