Super Bowl LIII Spread Pick – Rams vs. Patriots

After a lengthy regular season and a slew of missed calls throughout the post-season, let’s hope this version of the 2019 Super Bowl is not riddled with similar controversy.

If there was ever any doubt, the New England Patriots will again represent the AFC, and their opponents will be the Los Angeles Rams for the NFC. You will recall just two weeks ago, the Rams were gifted a trip to Super Bowl LIII as they were the fortunate recipients of an egregious missed call by the referees late in the NFC Championship. Still, the Rams did what they needed to do to get to this point, and you better believe coach Sean McVay will have his young group prepared and ready to dethrone the Patriots dynasty.

This is an excellent week of sports betting coverage for the big game here at The Sports Geek. In this spot, we will focus exclusively on analyzing the spread for the match-up, while in other articles and blog posts – we will take a look at interesting prop bets, totals, and a wide variety of other offerings you can get your money down on.

So keep reading on below the current posted odds for an in-depth analysis and betting preview for the spread in this game between the Rams and the Patriots. Enjoy the big game!
Rams vs. Patriots Spread Betting Odds:

New England Patriots -2.5 (-115)
@ Los Angeles Rams +2.5 (-105)

Betting odds provided by (Current as of Thursday, January 31st)

Rams vs. Patriots Spread Pick:

Over the duration of the entire season, the Rams have been the superior team to the Patriots. They enter this deciding contest the better team on paper, but we all know that’s not how the Super Bowl gets decided. The Los Angeles Rams though have been struggling of late. Jared Goff still is prone to big errors, and their defensive and offensive metrics have stagnated later in the season. New England meanwhile, has kept improving, likely recipients of excellent coaching from Bill Belichick and his team of fellow geniuses.

The Patriots might have been fortunate two weeks ago to escape Kansas City with a victory, but they’re not dwelling on good luck. This has been a dynasty for some time now, and Tom Brady is ready to add a Super Bowl ring to his other hand with his sixth overall title.

Fortunately for the Pats, they do have some big-time matchups to exploit when they have the football. Out of all the units in what promises to be a tightly contested affair, the Patriots offense vs. the Rams’ defense could see some mismatches. The Rams have been weak all season at defending the run game coming off of the edges, so expect Josh McDaniels to call for this early and often to get the ground attack established. This in turn should set up Brady’s deep balls through the air. The Rams are also porous at allowing running backs who often catch balls out of the backfield to roam free. Alvin Kamara was a beast two weeks ago, and I’d expect James White to push for double-digit receptions (key prop alert!)

Los Angeles has also been prone to stacking the box of late, in order to stop the run. Should McVay continue to adopt that strategy, it could leave huge gaps on the field within the secondary. Though New England has gone to more of a run-first approach of late, you can’t dismiss the aerial threat that Brady and his crew of receivers can offer.

Now the Rams quite likely can and should generate some pressure on Tom Brady with Aaron Donald and company on the defensive line. But the Pats have done an exceptional job of late at protecting Brady, and should be able to negate or at least limit the constant onslaught of pressure from Donald and Suh on the interior.

Finally, expect McDaniels to be creative about where he lines up Julian Edelman. The Rams have been good against receivers within the slot, but expect Edelman to move around a fair bit to seek out some favourable matchups. The Rams’ secondary is good in name value only right now, and holes can be exploited there. Expect Edelman and Gronkowski to decisively win their matchups and keep the chains moving on offense for New England.

On the other side of the ball, it will be interesting to watch how the young Jared Goff fares in this contest. He has been pretty bad ever since losing Cooper Kupp to a season-ending injury, and his style of holding onto the ball for too long could come back to bite him in this contest.

Of late, New England’s pass rush has been excellent, and it will match up well against the sturdy blocking the Rams provide. That said, with the recent form of New England in this category – expect the Patriots to be able to penetrate the line of scrimmage and really hurry and pressure the young QB. Downfield, the Pats’ secondary has been elite and should do a solid job of jamming the likes of Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks before they hit their stride.

On the ground, who knows what the Rams will do with regard to personnel. We saw C.J. Anderson carry the load two weeks ago, though it seems as if Todd Gurley was totally healthy. I predict we will see much more Gurley in Super Bowl LIII but will it make a difference? The Pats have had two weeks to gameplan for stuffing the talented and dynamic runner, and most of his preferred routes are on the outside – the area in which New England is most formidable at stuffing.

Truth be told, this is a really tight game and I’d be shocked if it wasn’t a one-score game throughout. Both the Rams and Patriots are quite evenly matched, but I give a slight edge to the Patriots attack when going against the Rams’ linebackers and their secondary. If New England can give Brady some decent protection through the middle, they’ll be able to move the chains at will. Brady over Goff is a huge mismatch here, and expect Brady to play mistake-free, while Goff could make a couple that costs the Rams the Super Bowl. Enjoy what promises to be a classic on Sunday!

PICK = Patriots -2.5 (-115)


Sub Categories:
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.