Super Bowl LI is finally here, it’s Super Bowl Sunday. After an exciting season of NFL football, we are down to two teams, the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons. Last year’s Super Bowl was an absolute dud from the start. After Von Miller strip-sacked Cam Newton early the came was essentially done. It’s one of the more forgettable Super Bowls I can remember. Other than the Peyton Manning final game storyline there really wasn’t much to get excited about. The Broncos will concede their championship after failing to even reach the playoffs. Their rivals, the Patriots, will have the opportunity to grab it right back.
The Patriots captured the Super Bowl after beating the Seattle Seahawks in a thriller two years ago at Super Bowl 49. It made for Tom Brady’s fourth Super Bowl ring, with only one more needed to cover his entire hand. The Giants aren’t in their way this time, but a potent Falcons’ offense and Matt Ryan are. We’ll see if the newcomers pull off the mini-upset and down the Pats and Brady.
For the purposes of this article, we will not be taking a look at the winners of the game. Instead, we’re handicapping the over/under of the Super Bowl. You can find the Super Bowl spread pick on a different blog post, here you will get the lowdown on our Super Bowl Over Under pick. There are so many ways to bet the Super Bowl, and this is just another example of how you can get involved in the game. I always recommend to bet what you feel most comfortable betting. Don’t force anything if you don’t like it. While this is the Super Bowl, at the of the day, it’s still only one game among thousands over this year.
The Falcons had the best offense during the regular season, and they rode Matt Ryan and Julio Jones all the way to Houston. Their defense had some leaks in it at times, but the offense was prolific enough to get them to the Super Bowl. Just a little help from the defense here and there proved Ryan the opportunity to put up big numbers. He finished with 38 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with a 117.1 quarterback rating. Some guy named Tom Brady will be opposite Ryan. Let’s get to our Super Bowl Over Under pick below.
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl Betting Odds:
vs. Falcons +3(-115)
Odds provided by Bovada.lv
Patriots vs. Falcons – Super Bowl Over Under Pick:
This is one of the highest totals we’ve seen in a Super Bowl. In fact, it breaks the record for the highest total in NFL history, breaking the previous high of in the Indianapolis Colts-New Orleans Saints’ Super Bowl from seven years ago. The Falcons averaged 33.8 points per game in the regular season, which ranked 1st in the league. Note that in the postseason, they kept it rolling with 40 points scored per game. The Falcons also led the pack with 457.5 yards per game for 1st. The Falcons fired head coach Mike Smith and Dan Quinn took this team from a group of chokers, to a perennial contender and a Super Bowl appearance.
Tom Brady threw for 28 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, following his four-game suspension to open the season. It could make for an awkward exchange when Roger Goodell is hanging the Vince Lombardi trophy over to Tom Brady, but his revenge tour may come to an end with this becoming a reality. The Patriots’ offense averaged 35 points in the postseason and 27.6 points per game in the regular season for 4th in the NFL. However, the way I see it, this game just isn’t going to come down to Tom Brady vs. Matt Ryan, the Patriot defense is going to come into play as well.
In what I’ve regarded as one of the most underrated units in the NFL, the Pats’ defense did a terrific job in 2016-17. It may come as a surprise to some people, but the Patriots’ defense finished 1st in the NFL with regards to points allowed per game. Note that they allowed only 15.6 points per game. The Patriots are masters at taking away an offenses most critical weapons, and it’s going to be interesting to see how they handle Julio Jones downfield. The Falcons were not up to far defensively in this respect, as they allowed 25.4 points per game on the year.
When it’s all said and done, I think the Patriots’ defense are going to be the real MVPs of this game. The Falcons would have gladly taken this game last week instead of a two-week window. The Patriots have had two weeks to look this offense up and down, which I think will be the deciding factor in this game. I expect a final score in the ballpark of 31-24 Patriots, so the UNDER looks like a delightful bet for the Super Bowl Over Under pick.
PICK: UNDER 59 POINTS (-110)