Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick – NFL Week 12

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts are at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon. This should be a good one between a Tom Brady led Buccaneers team, and the Colts who looked like the best team in the league last week.

The Colts marched into enemy territory in Orchard Park and beat the Buffalo Bills by a score of 41-15. Jonathan Taylor went off for a monster performance with 185 yards and 4 touchdowns on 5.8 yards per carry. He also added a touchdown through the air. That’s a very good defense that Taylor mowed down.

It was a big win for the Colts to advance to 6-5 on the season. In a competitive playoff race, that win could make all of the difference at the end of the season. The Colts are currently a couple of games behind the Tennessee Titans in the AFC South going into Sunday.

The Titans were shocked by the Houston Texans last week to give the Colts some help. Indianapolis is going to have to steal more games along the way against good teams if they’re going to win the division, though. The Buccaneers present a good opportunity for that on Sunday.

Tampa is coming off a 30-10 win over the Giants on Monday Night Football. That was too easy for the Bucs. The Giants made it easy on Brady and company in that contest. Tampa couldn’t have messed it up with Daniel Jones and the Giants’ offense on the other side.

Prior to that win, the Buccaneers were coming off back-to-back losses in a 36-27 final versus the Saints and 29-19 versus Washington on the road. The Buccaneers head back on the road with a confident Colts on the docket. A quality performance is required in Week 12 for a win.

Head below for our free Buccaneers vs. Colts pick on November 28, 2021.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-114) -160 Over 53.5 (-108)
Indianapolis Colts +3 (-106) +140 Under 53.5 (-110)
Team Data Tampa Bay Buccaneers Indianapolis Colts
Overall Record 7-3 6-5
ATS Record 4-6-0 7-4-0
Away/Home Record 2-3 3-3
ATS Away/Home 0-5-0 3-3-0
Points Per Game 30.9 28.1
Points Against Per Game 22.2 22.3
Passing Yards Per Game 314.8 216.1
Rushing Yards Per Game 91.2 147.9

Buccaneers vs. Colts Prediction:

The Buccaneers haven’t looked like clear leaders to win the Super Bowl this season. There really hasn’t been a unanimous top selection to win. Tom Brady knows how hard it is to repeat as champions, and he has to know that the Buccaneers have work to do if they’re going to go back-to-back.

They have struggled on the road, having played sub .500 football with a record of 2-3. Tom Brady has passed for 29 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 67.1% completions.

At home he’s hurled 20 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, while on the road, his numbers drop to 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. It’s not so much a Brady problem, as it is a team effort problem.

When the Buccaneers are playing to their full potential, it can be tough to stop them. Overall, the Buccaneers are second in the NFL with 406 yards per game.

They have also recorded 30.9 points a game for the league-lead. Note that Antonio Brown will continue to sit with an ankle injury. The offense has looked much more potent with him active.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends:


  • 15-3 overall in their previous 18 games
  • 0-5-1 ATS in their previous six games versus the Colts
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games versus the Colts in Indianapolis
  • 0-6 ATS in their previous six games as a favorite on the road
  • 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games as a favorite


  • 4-0 ATS in their previous four games as an underdog
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games versus a team with a winning record
  • 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games
  • 7-3 ATS in their previous ten games in November
  • 12-4-1 ATS in their previous 17 games versus a team with a winning road record

Carson Wentz might need to start getting some respect, and if he knocks off Tom Brady and the Buccaneers on Sunday then it will be hard to ignore him. Wentz has thrown for 1,484 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on 63% completions.

He’s certainly playing like a quarterback looking to prove something. He has led the Colts to 364 yards per game for 11th in the NFL. Having a running game with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield has allowed Wentz to have more opportunities downfield.

The Colts are fourth in the league with 147.9 rushing yards per game. Taylor has been efficient with 1,122 yards and 13 touchdowns on 5.8 yards a carry. This is a tough challenge versus the top-rated run defense in the NFL, but the same effort hasn’t been there on the road for Tampa.

The Buccaneer’s banged up secondary has been well-documented this season, and they’re certainly beatable. Tampa is 17th in the NFL against the pass, with 243.7 yards allowed per contest.

Indianapolis won’t garner much support from the public against the Buccaneers in this one, but I don’t think their win last week was flukey. Could the Bills have played a lot better? Sure, but the Colts deserve much respect. Tampa doesn’t scare me on the road. Give me the home underdog at Lucas Oil Stadium.


Buccaneers vs. Colts Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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