Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots SNF NFL Week 4 Pick – October 3

Undoubtedly the Game of the Week for this coming NFL Sunday will be Tom Brady leading his Tampa Bay Buccaneers back to New England to battle his old coach and team, the New England Patriots.

Brady of course left under much scrutiny, and while many assumed he’d struggle away from the mastery of Bill Belichick, it’s actually been the opposite. Brady secured yet another Super Bowl victory last year, and his Tampa squad look to be a dominant group once again. Coming off of a tough loss in Week 3 vs. the L.A. Rams, Brady and the Bucs will look to take out their frustrations on a struggling New England squad.

For the Patriots, it hasn’t been the start many had thought they’d get. They enter with a 1-2 record, and though their defense has been steady, their offensive play under rookie QB Mac Jones has sputtered of late. There’s also all of the storylines swirling, and the fact that Jones is taking on Tom Brady in New England, might make the youngster even more nervous for this primetime spot.

Regardless of the outcome, this is surely going to be a must-see matchup, given all of Brady’s history and success in New England. It’ll be an emotional night, but can the Patriots hang with the high-powered, veteran-laden Buccaneers? That remains to be seen. Keep on reading beneath the current odds for further betting data, trends, and analysis. Enjoy the return of Brady on Sunday Night Football!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots Live Odds & Betting History

*These odds are provided by BetOnline.ag


  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (-110)
  • New England Patriots +6.5(-110)

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-290)
  • New England Patriots (+250)
Total Points:

  • Over 49.5 (-105)
  • Under 49.5 (-115)
Overall Record 2-1-0 1-2-0
ATS Record 1-2-0 1-2-0
Home/Away Record 0-1-0 0-2-0
Points Per Game 34.3 18.0
Points Against Per Game 29.3 17.0
Passing Yards Per Game 349.7 226.0
Rushing Yards Per Game 56.3 91.7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots Prediction

It will certainly be interesting to see what type of gameplan the Patriots come up with for Tom Brady and this high-octane Bucs’ attack. Nobody knows number 12 better than New England’s coach, but it is the quarterback who has enjoyed the greater success since their very public break-up.

Ultimately New England might try to do things to confuse and frustrate the Bucs through the air, but it’s likely not sustainable across all four quarters. Brady is too sharp, and with all of the receiving talent at his disposal, the Buccaneers have a plethora of ways to keep the chains moving on Sunday night.

While New England does boast impressive coverage within their defensive backfield, they’ve really struggled at generating pressure. With solid protection, Brady should excel in making smart reads and hitting his targets downfield.

Assuming the Tampa offense does score, and it will – it’s going to force Mac Jones and New England into a game they’re likely unprepared and uncomfortable with. Mac Jones is certainly capable of airing it out, but the New England offense has struggled through the air. The rookie from Alabama has been reliant on his run game, but the Bucs stifle the ground game like no other team. Expect a limited showing from Damien Harris.

Richard Sherman is also expected to make his Tampa Bay debut on Sunday night, which should enhance their secondary and make up for some of the injuries at various defensive back positions. Jones will be forced to throw, and that secondary could be good for an interception or two on Sunday night.

Buccaneers vs. Patriots Trends To Know

  • Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
  • Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.
  • Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games as a favorite.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Patriots last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings between these two teams.

Once all the drama and discourse surrounding the storylines subsides, the fact remains that there is a huge talent gap between these squads.  Brady has forever had a knack of having statement games in big moments, and he’ll be ready for yet another one on Sunday Night Football.  He’ll be eager to show his old coach that he’s still got it, and this offense should be able to beat the Pats downfield.  Expect Bready in a blowout.

My Pick
Buccaneers -6.5
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nfl picks
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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