Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Pick – NFL Week 18

The Tennessee Titans are in Houston looking for the top seed in the AFC and a playoff bye week. Even though the Kansas City Chiefs came out on top of the Denver Broncos on Saturday, they don’t control their destiny.

The Titans have control of the AFC and will clinch the No. 1 seed in spit of the Chiefs’ win. Tennessee beat the Chiefs earlier in the season on October 27 by 27-3. They have the tiebreaker over the Chiefs with that impressive victory.

Kansas City figured out a way to win last night in Denver, but the win isn’t going to mean much if the Titans win in Houston. The Titans are coming off a 34-3 beatdown of the Miami Dolphins.

That was a good-looking display from the Titans after a 20-17 win a week prior versus the San Francisco 49ers. Tennessee was getting out of touch and lost without Derrick Henry, though they’re learning how to win again.

The Titans have been in better form after a 22-13 loss to the Texans and 36-13 to the New England Patriots. They’ve won three of their last four attempts going into tonight, with a 19-13 final at Pittsburgh their only loss.

Ryan Tannehill wasn’t asked to go off last week, but he was steady through the air and avoided mistakes. Tannehill connected for 2 touchdowns to Geoff Swaim and Anthony Firkser. D’Onta Foreman came to life with 132 yards and a touchdown on 5.1 yards per carry.

Foreman will have to do his best Derrick Henry impression in the playoffs if the Titans have a chance at going deep. The Texans have been dead for a while this season. They’ve been playing for little a while now.

The Chiefs were almost knocked off yesterday in a game where they probably didn’t take the Broncos too seriously. Tennessee has to avoid the same mindset at Houston. The Titans have already lost to the Texans, so we’ll see if it was lesson learned.

Head below for our free Titans vs. Texans pick on January 9, 2022.

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds and Team Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Tennessee Titans -10 (-110) -530 Over 42.5 (-110)
Houston Texans +10 (-110) +380 Under 42.5 (-110)
Team Data Tennessee Titans Houston Texans
Overall Record 11-5 4-12
ATS Record 10-6-0 7-9-0
Away/Home Record 4-3 2-6
ATS Away/Home 4-3-0 4-4-0
Points Per Game 24.4 15.9
Points Against Per Game 20.6 26.5
Passing Yards Per Game 196.1 188.5
Rushing Yards Per Game 142.5 84.9

Titans vs. Texans Prediction:

The Titans had little interest in taking the field against the Texans on November 21. They were dropped by a score of 22-13 in a mistake-plagued game from Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill was intercepted four times in the loss.

Adrian Peterson, who isn’t with the team any longer, led the Titans in rushing with 40 yards on 4.4 yards per carry. Tyrod Taylor didn’t have to do anything, as he passed for 107 yards with no touchdowns.

The Texans’ leading rusher was Red Burkhead on 40 yards on 2.2 yards per attempt. In other words, the loss was all on Tannehill. The Titans should have won rather handily if he has a halfway decent game.

The Titans are likely going to be smarter this time around. Houston did nothing to move the ball and just waited on Tannehill to make a mistake. They were a bit lost at the time without Derrick Henry. However, the Titans have gotten back to business since then.

Tennesee Titans vs. Houston Texans Betting Trends:


  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games versus the AFC South
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games after covering the spread
  • 15-6-3 ATS in their previous 24 games in January
  • 7-3 overall in their previous ten games versus the Ravens
  • UNDER is 5-2 in their previous seven games at Baltimore


  • 2-4 ATS in their previous six games
  • 3-6 ATS in their previous nine games in January
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games at Houston
  • 3-12 overall in their previous 15 games
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games after a loss by more than 14 points

Much has changed since the Texans beat the Titans. Tyrod Taylor is out at quarterback, while D’Onta Foreman is the leading tailback in Tennessee.

Davis Mills has shown more than any other Texans quarterback this season. It isn’t saying much, but he’s had a handle on the offense and deserves the starting spot, at least for now.

Mills has passed for 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on 66.5% completions. He’s been putting together fine work, but isn’t going to propel the Texans to the next level.

Mills is at his best when the running game is working. However, the Titans have been tough against the run, with 85.9 yards allowed per game for second-best in the NFL. They will likely force Mills into winning this one with his arm.

Houston benefited from Tannehill handing them the game in their first meeting. Expect those mistakes to be cleaned up this time. The Texans should leave Week 18 with a double-digit win in Houston to clinch the AFC.


Titans vs. Texans Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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