Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pick – NFL Week 5

The Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars look to pick up the pieces after a rough week. The Titans are reeling after they were stopped by the New York Jets in overtime, 27-24. They needed a late touchdown to force overtime in that one.

If Zach Wilson completed an easy route to the sideline on 3rd down, then the Titans wouldn’t have gotten the ball back with a chance to tie the game up. Wilson makes the play, and the Jets run out the clock for a 24-17 win.

The Titans were banged up without Julio Jones and A.J. Brown, but Titans’ fans don’t expect a loss despite their offensive woes, not against a winless Jets team. They can’t possibly lose in back-to-back weeks against two winless teams, right?

This isn’t just any winless team, it’s a Jaguars team coming off a week of distractions. It wasn’t anything to do with players on the team either. Urban Meyer decided to stay behind after his team lost on Thursday night against the Cincinnati Bengals.

His team looked better than the Bengals for much of the game, but unraveled and lost the game by a score 24-21 at Paul Brown Stadium. Instead of flying back with the team, Urban stayed in Ohio, and you know the rest. It’s been the main talking point this past week, but is it really as much of a distraction as the press lets on?

As far as the locker room is concerned, not coming home with the team part is probably the bigger problem than him being recorded in a bar. What he was doing in the bar was between him and his family. I have to hit the doubt button that players care what he’s doing with women.

The Titans are expected to have Brown active in Jacksonville. That’s a boost to an offense that looked lost for most of last week. Not expected to be available is Julio Jones, though. That keeps one big target off the field, a plus for the Jags in this one. Head below for our free Titans vs. Jaguars pick on October 10, 2021.

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Titans -4.5 (-110) -210 Over 48.5 (-110)
Jaguars +4.5 (-110) +175 Under 48.5 (-110)
Team Data Titans Jaguars
Overall Record 2-2 0-4
ATS Record 2-2-0 1-3-0
Away/Home Record 1-1 0-2
ATS Away/Home 1-1-0 0-2-0
Points Per Game 23.8 18.5
Points Against Per Game 27.8 28.8
Passing Yards Per Game 230.8 209.3
Rushing Yards Per Game 163.8 112.3

Titans vs. Jaguars Prediction:

The Titans have been a mediocre team this season, which has come as a major disappointment to their fans. Even with Julio Jones and A.J. Brown on the field, it looked like something was missing from the Titans.

Their passing game is 22nd in the NFL with 230.8 yards per game. They’ve been beating up defenses on the ground with Derrick Henry, but Ryan Tannehill and the Titans through the air haven’t been up to form.

Henry has gained 510 yards and 5 touchdowns on 4.5 yards per carry going into Week 5. He’s off the pace by about a yard compared to last year when he averaged 5.4 yards per carry. The Jaguars have put up a fight against the run with 106.3 yards allowed per game, good for 13th in the league.

The Jags have been susceptible against the pass with 312.3 yards conceded per game, but the Titans haven’t looked great through the air. If Jacksonville can hold Henry down moderately, they should be able to hang around in this one.

The key in giving the Jags a chance is going to be the play of Trevor Lawrence. After a slow start and looking uncomfortable, to be expected as a rookie, Lawrence looks a lot more in command of the offense. He looked much more comfortable last week in Cincinnati.


Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends:

Titans

  • 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games
  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games games as a favorite on the road
  • 6-21-1 ATS in their previous 28 games versus a team with a losing record at home
  • 2-7-1 ATS in their previous ten games in Week 10
  • 7-1 overall in their previous eight games versus the Jaguars
  • 7-1 overall in their previous eight games versus the AFC South

Jaguars

  • 2-6 ATS in their previous eight games
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games versus the AFC South
  • 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games after a loss
  • 0-4 ATS in their previous four games at TIAA Bank Field
  • 0-4 ATS in their previous four games in October

The NFL looked too quick for Lawrence out of the gate. That’s to be expected, so I can’t say I was surprised. He looked much more in control in Cincinnati on Thursday night. Lawrence didn’t throw a touchdown, but he avoided making any mistakes, and ran for 36 yards and a score.

Lawrence took off and ran often in college. He wasn’t hesitant, but that was the case earlier this season in the NFL. Lawrence has been much more willing to run, and his name was called on QB options frequently last week. He had 8 attempts for 36 yards and 4.5 yards per carry in Cincinnati.

It’s something that a mediocre Tennessee defense has to keep in mind. They’ve allowed 358.3 yards per game for 18th in the NFL. Zach Wilson, who looked lost behind a terrible last week before the Titans came to town, passed for 297 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. It’s by far his best performance in the NFL.

The Titans are 23rd in the league with 266.8 yards allowed per game. They’re getting beat for 27.8 points per game, 26th in the NFL. Lawrence is getting more confident, and now he has a defense that is reeling after giving up big yardage to another rookie.

If oddsmakers thought this was going to be a breeze for the Titans, I think we’d be looking at 7 or 8 points in this spot. Even then, they’d get a lot of Titans money. At 4.5 points, the Titans are most likely going to be the most public play of the week. In back-to-back road games after Wilson exploited their defense, I’m not fully confident in them covering 4.5 points. I am going contrarian and fading the public.

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Titans vs. Jaguars Pick
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4.5