There will be points – a lot of them. I know, that’s what we thought going into Sunday’s battle in New Orleans between the Eagles and Saints. But this one shouldn’t be so one-sided and thanks to a nasty 62.5 Total at Sportsbetting.ag, this clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams actually could end up living up to the hype.
While this could be an instant classic, I wish you luck correctly prioritizing this contest when it comes to daily fantasy football picks. You only get to use five players in FanDuel’s one-game showdown contest and leaving out some studs is going to be awfully difficult. Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff feel like locks, but there’s no way you can fit them all in – literally.
I’ll give you my personal favorite lineup for tonight’s game and feel free to pivot as needed. Let’s get to it:
MVP (1.5x points): Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs ($17k)
Todd Gurley is also $17k and should have a big game, but Mahomes has more upside. Gurley’s best game this year was 35.5 fantasy points, but as nasty as that was, it still isn’t as good as Mahomes’ best (38.84).
The gap isn’t big, but Mahomes controls his fate a little more and in a game that is a clear shootout, I’m trusting the guy with the most weapons and the most fantasy potential. Many will find it difficult to get away from Gurley in this game, but I’m not just pivoting off of him. I’m fading him.
FLEX: Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($13.5k)
One reason I can fade Gurley is because of Mahomes and Hunt. Few running backs can sniff Gurley’s role and upside in daily fantasy football, but Hunt can actually match him and perhaps even best him. He’s twice topped 32 fantasy points over the last four weeks and is way cheaper than the Rams’ star rusher.
Gurley is the safer option with a little more upside, but Hunt can dominate on the ground or as a pass-catcher. I don’t see a massive difference between the two in this game and if it’s as fast-paced as it’s set up to be, Hunt is a necessity for me at this price tag.
FLEX: Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($12k)
Fading Mahomes isn’t an option for me and I don’t need Gurley if Hunt can deliver the goods. In turn, fully fading Gurley could open up salary that not everyone is going to have access to. I doubt Tyreek Hill is somehow contrarian, but he’s just way too cheap given this matchup. He’ll probably see a good amount of former Chiefs corner Marcus Peters and based on his play this year, that’s pretty exciting.
Hill is another guy that is way cheaper than Gurley, yet showed last week (29 fantasy points) he can be just as good in NFL DFS circles. This is that rare game where fading Todd Gurley might make a ton of sense and the Mahomes/Hunt/Hill trio is a huge reason why.
FLEX: Brandin Cooks, WR, Los Angeles Rams ($12k)
Jared Goff is in play at $15.5k and he’s obviously got a great matchup going up against a Chiefs defense that has had trouble against viable offenses in 2018. I’d say they’ve actually been a lot better than people seem to give them credit for, but I still think they’re destined to give up some numbers in this game.
If Goff is going to have much success, it’ll likely come via Cooks down the field. He’s put up 20+ fantasy points in two consecutive games and I can’t see the targets going away with Cooper Kupp (torn ACL) out for the year. You can also look to Robert Woods and save cash with Josh Reynolds, but I need Cooks tonight.
FLEX: Chris Conley, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($5.5k)
This roster is made possible by the presence of Chris Conley, who could see an inflated role with Sammy Watkins (foot) ailing at the moment. He hasn’t officially been ruled out just yet, but he hasn’t practiced much this week and is at risk of being limited or ruled out. I’m actually hoping we don’t know his status before lock, but either way, Conley looks like an elite value play.
Getting a hand in the KC offense at this cheap of a price is obviously something you want to consider doing, but it’s even better if Conley’s role graduates to the starting lineup. Conley hasn’t blown up with the Chiefs yet in 2018, but it doesn’t take much and he’s dirt cheap.
Conley could be very chalky and in these one-game showdown contests there’s always the risk of piecing together a lineup 100 other people will be using as well. I’ll roll the dice and hope Conley is slightly contrarian and the competition using Todd Gurley ends up allowing my lineup to climb the ranks.
If Todd Gurley comes out and crushes, it may not be the end of the world. If he dominates and Hill/Hunt don’t exceed expectations and/or Mahomes has a bad game, then yeah, it’ll be a blunder. But as we’ve seen in these NFL DFS slates, you do need to assume some risk.
That’ll be my daily fantasy football strategy for Monday night, though. Whether this exact lineup leads you to glory or not, I wish you well. Enjoy quite possibly the game of the 2018 NFL season!