I handed out some NFL DFS picks on Monday, but it wasn’t my best batch. Nick Mullens couldn’t make it two successful starts in a row, while Saquon Barkley had his worst fantasy outing of the year (of course). He still mustered 12 fantasy points, though, which goes to show how amazing he’s been during his rookie season.
Eli Manning also tossed three touchdowns and I’m not sure even his dad saw that coming. It was a night to forget for DFS purposes, but if you rostered Eli, Odell (who I vouched for) and Matt Breida, you could have won some cash.
Tonight we get to do it all again as the Green Bay Packers visit the Seahawks in Seattle. Vegas is favoring the Seahawks by -3 points, but both teams are going to play hard in a game they sorely need. Seattle is a little more desperate and at home, so I’m tentatively leaning their way with my daily fantasy football picks in this one.
Let’s see what my favorite NFL DFS lineup is looking like for Thursday night’s one-game showdown contests:
MVP (1.5x points): Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($11.5k)
The Seahawks finally unleashed their prized rookie last week and he rumbled his way to 16.8 fantasy points. He did that against the Rams in a shootout and looked good in the process.
Chris Carson is due back, so we know there’s the risk of Penny not getting the ball nearly as much. That’s fine, because he’s probably still getting a good amount of touches and that news likely lowers his ownership. He’s a great price and faces a Green Bay run defense that just has been awful. They just let Frank Gore run all over them, so I’m not sure much more needs to be said.
Penny isn’t a locked in stud with Carson returning, but I love him on this one-day contest. Seattle is favored by Vegas and at home, too. If that projects to the Seahawks winning, they’re sure to lean on the run a good bit in this one. If so, Penny could smash and I love the idea of him beasting out for the second game in a row in my MVP slot.
FLEX: Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks ($8k)
While I love Seattle’s rushing attack in this one, I also don’t mind them through the air. Tyler Lockett is undeniably the top Seahawks receiver to chase after in this matchup, but Doug Baldwin has been way too quiet all year. He still has big play ability and has worked the Packers in the past. Don’t be shocked if he busts out his first big game of the year in this one.
Also, I don’t know what it is about Green Bay, but they are notorious for giving up “firsts” to players and teams. Baldwin hasn’t scored all year so I’m almost guaranteeing he finds the end-zone tonight. It’d just be so fitting.
FLEX: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Green Bay Packers ($8.5k)
Davanta Adams is Green Bay’s top receiver, but he’s really pricey. Seattle has not been as dominant against the pass this year, but part of that is surely facing the Rams twice already. Adams could be worth it tonight, but MVS is going to continue seeing a good share of targets and has monster upside.
I’ll take the discount, hopefully landing a solid play and also saving some cash in the process.
FLEX: Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks ($16.5k)
Wilson has a good matchup at home in a must-win game. Our own Will S. picks the Seahawks to win this game and cover and I tend to agree with him. If that indeed happens, a Seahawks stack may be the way to go. They have the better defense and probably need this win slightly more than the Packers, simply because they have no path to the playoffs but as a wild card.
On top of all of that, Wilson has given the Packers fits in the past and is also red hot at the moment. He’s scored multiple touchdowns in five straight games and is a good bet to keep that streak rolling tonight. He’s a great pivot off of Aaron Rodgers and honestly the superior fantasy play.
FLEX: Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers ($14k)
Green Bay’s best chances of winning tonight come down to feeding AJ and/or having Aaron Rodgers open up a can. On the road against a capable defense, I’m not completely sold on either happening. Considering how pedestrian Rodgers has been lately – and kind of the entire year – I’m certainly not paying a premium to hope he’s got it all figured out on the road on a short week.
The Packers are 0-4 on the road and the passing game has just not had it going on in 2018. They did establish the run last week, however, and unearthed a potential star in the process. Whether he dominates or not, Jones has a solid avenue to success against a Seattle defense that has been a little more beatable on the ground than through the air.
Jones doesn’t need 30 fantasy points like last week to pay off. If he can get 60-80 total yards and a score he’ll be worth it.
I think a great way to try to project games is to think about how they play out in the sports betting world. Both teams badly need this game, but it’s a short week and Seattle is at home. Everything plays into their favor here, so stacking Packers just feels wrong.
Fading Aaron Rodgers feels like a mistake, but he’s not been elite lately (under 20 fantasy points in three straight games) and has not had an explosive track record against the Seahawks. Could he come out and drop 30 points on the Seahawks and carry the Packers to their first road win of the year? Sure, but it’s not the logical outcome in this spot.