I also got burned by what felt like a rock solid play in James Conner and didn’t roster Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey – both of which went nuts.
It wasn’t a great week for my NFL DFS picks, but week 13 gives me another chance to aim high. This is a really big main slate and there are plenty of elite options to consider.
Here’s my favorite lineup for this week:
QB: Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks ($7.7k)
Patrick Mahomes is absurdly pricey but still tempting. I just can’t pay that much cash when there are perfectly viable options like Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck and Wilson here, all at $8.2k or cheaper.
Wilson has the best matchup of the three, so I’ll roll the dice on him staying hot. He’s just as scorching as Luck, Cam Newton or anyone else these days, yet he’s inexplicably way cheaper. At home in a must-win game against a bad Niners team, I’m expecting him to wreck.
This is a naked quarterback play for me, though. Banking on Wilson to put up 20+ fantasy points isn’t a reach, but trying to figure out who benefits from him going off is a nightmare. I won’t be subjecting myself to that.
RB: Kareem Hunt – Kansas City Chiefs ($8.9k) Hunt is my preferred pivot off of Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey. You can make a case for all of those guys, but Hunt might have the best matchup on the board and he can match/best every back on this slate.
RB: Spencer Ware – Kansas City Chiefs ($5.2k)
Whoops. Hunt just got in trouble for domestic violence and it remains to be seen what that means for him. For now, I am going to assume he’s out for this week and that instantly makes Spencer Ware ($5.2k) the chalkiest chalk that ever did walk.
Provided Ware indeed starts and Hunt is out, he’s an instant play for me.
RB: Phillip Lindsay – Denver Broncos ($7k)
I’ve loaded up with two and even three stud rushers in the past, but I’m chasing a more balanced team this week. That’s because I think I can get a stud for a cheaper price.
Lindsay is facing a terrible Bengals defense in a huge must-win game for Denver. Barring an epic face-plant, I expect him to crush in this matchup.
WR: Tyreek Hill – Oakland Raiders ($8.4k)
While I’m not paying up for Patrick Mahomes this week, I absolutely want exposure to the Chiefs in a gimme game against the Raiders. Hunt is my top option from them, but the explosive Hill is a close second.
WR: Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings ($8.1k)
Thielen is banged up, but he just torched the Packers and is looking at another solid matchup this week when he takes on the Pats. New England’s defense is far from elite and has allowed 12 touchdowns on the year to wide receivers.
Given his role and explosive ability, Thielen is much to cheap this week.
WR: Courtland Sutton – Denver Broncos ($5.4k)
I also like Emmanuel Sanders ($7k) here, but Sutton is way cheaper and has the same awesome matchup. I can’t fully bite on Case Keenum, but Denver’s showdown in Cincinnati is to die for.
Two Broncos feels like a lot, but this is an awesome matchup. I feel like Sutton’s huge breakout game is coming this week.
TE: Cameron Brate – Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4.9k)
Travis Kelce is the top tight end, but there are several options to like this week, including Greg Olsen and Eric Ebron.
I like to save at this position when I can, however, and Brate has the best matchup a tight end can ask for.
FLEX: Ty Montgomery – Baltimore Ravens ($5.1k) I’m not a big fan of Montgomery, but opportunity is often everything in daily fantasy sports. Both Alex Collins and Gus Edwards are banged up and if they’re out Montgomery can’t help but handle a good amount of Baltimore’s workload out of the backfield. The Falcons are terrible at stopping pass-catching running backs, so even if one of Baltimore’s main backs is active, I think he’s going to be worth a roll of the dice at this cheap price.
Flex: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers ($8.8k)
Because I’m dropping Hunt for Ware, I have the cash to get basically anyone I want in this Flex spot. You can split the cash and pay up anywhere you please, but I’d just roster Christian McCaffrey.
He has been smashing more often than not and a showdown with the Buccaneers does not provide an imposing matchup.
DEF: Denver Broncos ($4.5k)
I think this is a week to pay up for defense, otherwise you’re risking it with the Dolphins, Bills and the like. Denver is in a must-win spot against the Bengals and they’ll be going up against Jeff Driskel.
The matchup looks good for Denver and they’ve been pretty active lately. Green Bay and Chicago are two other pricey defenses I’d look to this week as well.
This week is all about value. I’d love to cram another stud rusher in here, but I am getting a stud RB, QB and two stud WRs at discounted prices. You can try punting defense or pay down at one of the wide receiver spots if you want to open up salary, while there are also plenty of quarterback punts out there.
I think a stack of Wilson/Hunt/Thielen/Hill is a great core and my value plays are pretty safe. Hopefully this makes for a big week and I can see you at the top of a GPP. If you don’t love this lineup as it stands, just pivot as needed and use whatever picks of mine you agree on.
Regardless of your NFL DFS strategy, I wish you luck in week 13. Enjoy the games!