Normally these Thursday Night Football affairs are at risk of producing subpar entertainment, but tonight we get a fun battle between arguably the best team in the league in the Saints and one of the most historical in the Cowboys.
Dallas could give a good fight here due to the game being held in Jerry World, while the Cowboys can be tough at times due to their ability to run the ball and defend.
I find it hard to believe that they’ll drive the football down the throat of one of the best run defenses in football, however, while stopping Drew Brees and this nasty New Orleans offense seems like a reach.
Our own Will S. agrees on these points and that’s one huge reason why he’s picking New Orleans to cover their -7 spread tonight.
While there is room for a Cowboys stack in NFL DFS tournaments, I think the best play is to drop one of your favorite Saints players into the MVP slot and then maybe fit in a Dallas passing weapon or two.
Can Dak Prescott compete in a shootout or can Ezekiel Elliott live up to his price tag without 100+ yards rushing? I don’t really think so, and that has me loading up on as many Saints as possible.
Without further haste, let’s take a look at my favorite NFL DFS picks for tonight’s FanDuel contests:
MVP (1.5x points): Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints ($17k)
It all starts with Brees for me. He’s fired in four total touchdowns in each of his last four games and I don’t see why his hot run should stop tonight.
Dallas can defend and the Saints have historically struggled on the road, but I wouldn’t call the Cowboys an elite defense and this offense in a dome is a very scary thing.
You can also look to Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas or Zeke here, but I think the Saints through the air is the way to go tonight. Brees approaching 300 yards with 3-4 scores is likely.
FLEX: Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints ($14k)
Thomas was one of the few Saints receivers to not haul in a touchdown pass last week, so I expect him to pop back up with a big game here.
Dallas hasn’t exactly gotten scorned through the air in 2018, but it’s certainly where they’re most vulnerable.
Thomas should be able to do some solid work and while I’m not anticipating a crazy 30-point performance, he could get you somewhere between 15-20 in this matchup.
FLEX: Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints ($14.5)
I am admittedly going back and forth between Kamara and fellow Saints rusher Mark Ingram. Neither have a good matchup against a very good Dallas run defense, though, so I’ll side with Kamara, who is a little more explosive and is featured more in the passing game.
Ingram can save you about $2k if you see someone you really want to upgrade over these other options, but Kamara has been one of the best NFL DFS options all year. The fact that I can roster him for less than both Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott is kind of hilarious.
FLEX: Keith Kirkwood, WR, New Orleans Saints ($8k)
I have the top three options in the New Orleans offense and while that should be a chalky approach, I believe it’ll be the correct one.
You’re going to have to save somewhere, though, and I see no harm in taking a shot on a cheap Saints receiving options like Kirkwood. The role isn’t massive, but Brees sure knows how to spread the ball around and find the open guy.
The return of Tre’Quan Smith hurts Kirkwood’s upside, so if you’re not into him consider pivoting to Cole Beasley.
FLEX: Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys ($6k)
You will have to roster at least one Cowboys option on this one-game slate and I’m not overly excited about paying up for that token Dallas player. Instead, I’m stacking the Saints and will squeeze Gallup into my lineup.
Gallup isn’t very reliable, but he does see the ball a handful of times each game and has big play upside. New Orleans has been very good defensively for much of the year, but they are most vulnerable through the air.
I expect the Saints to focus on shutting down Zeke and Amari Cooper, so it’s possible one of intermediate options in Dallas has a decent game. That does put the aforementioned Beasley on the table as well, but I’ll be crossing my fingers Gallup springs a big play.
It might be contrarian to stack Cowboys on this slate, but I’m not sold on it actually being a winning daily fantasy football strategy. The Cowboys’ most logical path to a win here is either coming out on top in a crazy shootout or suffocating the Saints defensively and controlling the clock with Zeke on the ground.
I don’t really think Dak Prescott is cut out for a shootout with Brees and I find it very hard to believe Dallas is the first team to stifle this Saints offense. That has me going against Zeke and not really on board with paying for Dak.
Hopefully this lineup leads you to some cash, but as always, feel free to pivot where you think it makes sense. Either way, good luck and enjoy the game!