It was never going to be easy to peg that game correctly, but as it turned out, it was borderline impossible.
Thursday may not be easier necessarily, but it sure should be a heck of a lot more fun. NFL and DFS fans alike get a possible gem, as AFC West rivals in the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers face off.
This game could go a long way in deciding the division. It’s Kansas City’s if they win and sweep the Bolts, while the final two games of the year will decide the division if L.A. finds a way to win.
Either way, we’re probably going to see a lot of big plays and plenty of points. The Chiefs are the understandable favorite at home, but there is certainly a small argument for rolling with the Chargers in this one.
Our own Kyle E. is backing KC and their light -3.5 point spread in TSG’s Chiefs vs. Chargers pick, so going with mostly KC DFS options might be wise.
This game has a vibrant Total (54), though, so I don’t think you need to pick favorites. Just load up as many strong plays as possible and find the right value plays.
That’s my daily fantasy strategy for tonight and this is the team it’s led me to:
MVP (1.5x points): Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs ($17.5k)
Would you have it any other way? There is absolutely an argument for Philip Rivers or Tyreek Hill in this spot, but Mahomes has had an amazing year and hung 28 fantasy points on L.A. back in week one.
That was on the road with nothing on the line. Mahomes is in front of his home crowd and can secure a division title.
He’s got Tyreek Hill in the lineup and should be very busy. I expect a big game and he’s likely a must for your NFL DFS lineup tonight, even if you don’t agree he deserves to be in the MVP spot.
FLEX: Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers ($15.5k)
Rivers could be good enough in this one to entertain putting in the MVP spot, but I expect KC to win and do so with style. Still, Rivers put up nearly 30 fantasy points in this same matchup back in week one and he’s going to come to play tonight.
Kansas City does not have an elite defense and will give up some big plays to a talented Bolts offense. I’m not sure where those plays are coming from, but I get the feeling Rivers will have his hands in a lot of them.
FLEX: Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($13.5k)
Mahomes’ top guy is Hill and the last time he faced this Chargers team he abused them to the tune of 38.8 fantasy points. The Chargers do have a talented defense, but I’m not sure you can ever really be afraid to target Hill’s elite speed and play-making ability.
Sammy Watkins is not going to play in this game and Spencer Ware is out as well. The Chiefs are going to need to lean on their top guys and Hill isn’t even that expensive for a one-game slate.
The beauty here is a plethora of options and Hill’s ailing heel could lower his ownership. That’d be getting too cute on a night like this, however.
Keenan Allen is also very much in play and Melvin Gordon is tough to ignore if he’s active, but I prefer to get both quarterbacks and nab Hill.
FLEX: Justin Jackson, RB, Los Angeles Chargers ($8k)
Speaking of Melvin Gordon, he is not 100% and his top backup – Austin Ekeler – has already been ruled out for this game. Gordon could start and end up wrecking, but if he’s not his normal self I doubt the Bolts will force it.
Either way, Jackson is in line for a solid role and we already saw what he’s capable of when he put up 14 fantasy points in a crazy comeback against the Steelers two weeks ago.
There’s no telling how much he’ll actually be involved, but the price is nice and I wouldn’t be shocked if he had a bigger role than expected.
FLEX: Charcandrick West, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($4k)
My favorite cheap option to help make all of this possible is West. KC just brought him back recently because he knows their system and the timing couldn’t be better with Kareem Hunt released and Spencer Ware is unlikely to play.
Damien Williams should be the starter in name, but the Chiefs will likely hand West some touches and he’s flashed solid ability for them in the past. I wouldn’t at all be shocked to see him outperform Williams in a high profile game.
At this dirt cheap price, he’s a logical roll of the dice and is a must for me.
It’s all about the Chiefs for me tonight. I’d obviously like to get exposure to Travis Kelce, Damien Williams, Chris Conley, Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon, Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams if I’m creating a ton of GPPs.
Personally, I do not go crazy on small DFS slates and I tend to create the one lineup for one-game showdown contests. They are either squads filled with players (studs and/or values) that I love, or I take a unique approach and try to be really contrarian.
This game would demand stacking Chargers or putting someone like Chris Conley in the MVP slot to be really contrarian, so I’m not being weird with it and just stacking Mahomes/Rivers/Hill and moving along. Jackson and West are really logical value plays, but there’s still a mild chance they get overlooked.
I’m also eating $1k in salary, so hopefully a lot of people feel inclined to use all of their money or close to it. Even by going contrarian, these one-game DFS contests tend to result in ties. In other words, don’t go crazy trying to figure out the perfect team.
If you like this lineup, go ahead and use it. If you only like a few plays, mix and match my NFL DFS picks with your own. Whatever you do, I wish you luck. This is gonna be a fun one, so enjoy it.