Week four in the NFL was absolutely lit. Seriously, the stats were eye-popping and the slate as a whole was incredibly competitive with a slew of intense games going down to the wire and three going into overtime. Fortunately, somehow there weren’t any ties.
The craziness doesn’t have to stop. Luckily the Kansas City Chiefs are in action for Monday Night’s Football, as they prepare to take it to their AFC West rivals, the Denver Broncos. Case Keenum and company play host in what projects to be an insane shootout.
I don’t even know if you need much help for tonight’s NFL DFS showdown contest at FanDuel. You’re going to want to at least consider rostering both quarterbacks in this one, as well as whatever weapons you can get your hands on. The perfect combination will be needed to take down a GPP, but I’ll clue you into my favorite studs and sleepers for tonight:
MVP (1.5x points): Case Keenum, QB, Denver Broncos ($12.5k)
Patrick Mahomes is tough to fade on this slate and if you do 100 teams for this one-game showdown contest, he probably needs to be on 99 of them. That being said, I think it could be very interesting to pivot off of him in the MVP slot and/or actually give him the full fade.
For one, Mahomes might not be able to keep up this crazy pace for forever. He’s on a 13:0 touchdown to interception run and even if he has a good game tonight, it’s quite possible we see him start to slow down a bit, if only for one game.
Playing in Denver isn’t easy, either. The Broncos are off to a solid 2-1 start and have a pretty good offense on paper. They also have a capable defense that can get after the quarterback and also stop the run. If they put pressure on Mahomes, it could force some turnovers and have him struggling a bit.
Is this the likely outcome? No, but in GPPs we need to consider all angles and make some different plays. You don’t need me to tell you to stick Mahomes on your DFS roster, but perhaps I’m the guy that can shed some light on the other side.
There is merit in fading Mahomes, but there’s even more reason to give Keenum a shot. He showed his upside in his Broncos debut (22 fantasy points) and he has the luxury of being at home against a really bad KC defense. The Chiefs have talent, but they have not been good against the pass and specifically rank 31st against fantasy passers.
Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and even Jimmy Garoppolo all posted big stat lines in this matchup. I think Keenum can do the same.
FLEX: Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos ($9.5k)
Kansas City has been really bad at stopping the pass, but they’ve also had issues containing the run. The Chiefs rank 31st in points allowed to the running back position so far in 2018 and they’re on the road against a pretty capable Denver rushing attack.
Bruising rookie Royce Freeman temporarily lost his starting gig to Phillip Lindsay, but due to Lindsay’s poor decision-making in a loss to the Ravens, there is a very good chance we see a lot more of Freeman in week four.
Freeman has already flashed nice ability and has hit pay dirt in each of his last two contests. I think he makes it three in a row and plays a big hand in limiting Mahomes in this game by controlling the clock.
FLEX: Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs ($13k)
While I do think fading Mahomes on a one-game slate could be a massive move in GPPs, I don’t think he’s going to be awful or anything. Denver’s weakness is still through the air and one way or another, Mahomes will get some fantasy points in this one.
Using a couple Chiefs receivers still makes a lot of sense and one of my favorites is Kelce. He’s obviously a touchdown machine and he’s had a really nice role with 10 targets in each of his last two games. The Broncos haven’t been great at stifling tight ends this year, either, ranking just 25th through the first few weeks.
Kelce dropped a sick 7-133-1 line the last time he faced Denver and a similar line wouldn’t be a total shocker. With people more amped up to pay for Tyreek Hill and/or Mahomes, you could gain a huge edge on tourney fields by fading both and going with a more balanced approach.
FLEX: Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos ($13k)
If I’m using Keenum at the MVP slot, you have to think I like some of his weapons in the passing game. I certainly do, as Emmanuel Sanders is a terrific route-runner and displayed his chemistry with Keenum in week one (10-135-1 line). He has the best matchup he’s seen all year this time around and if Keenum is going to light it up like I think he can, I tend to think Sanders will benefit.
Feel free to try to include Demaryius Thomas or pivot to him, but Sanders is the better play.
FLEX: Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($12k)
I’ll cap things off with Watkins, who has a solid role and continues to have the deep speed to take any touch to the house. Tyreek Hill is the main long ball guy people will gravitate to – and for good reason – but Denver will do all they can to keep him in check.
I’m not sure they’ll succeed completely, but Watkins is a great option below him. He’s nicely priced and he’s been productive with 16+ fantasy points in each of his last two games.
Again, I don’t think Mahomes gets completely shutdown in this spot, but pivoting off of him and his number one options has some logic to it. I don’t blame you if you want to cram Mahomes/Hill into your FanDuel lineups, though. If so, consider punts like Chris Conley (2 Tds this year) and Courtland Sutton.
If I’m rolling out multiple NFL DFS lineups for this contest, I’m absolutely making sure Mahomes and Hill are littered across my entries. However, there is a chance this game doesn’t go quite like Chiefs fans and NFL experts think. If true, the top KC plays could struggle a bit and this could be a game that tilts in favor of the home team. Pushing out a daily fantasy football lineup that reflects that might not be the worst idea.
Whether you like this lineup or not, hopefully I’ve helped you in some manner. Good luck and enjoy the game!