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Week 5 Thursday Night Football DFS Picks – October 4th

My strategy really wasn’t that bad going into last week’s Monday Night Football showdown contest. I figured Patrick Mahomes would slow down on the road against the Broncos and that the perfect pivot at the MVP slot could be Case Keenum.

Adding a Broncos receiver, rusher Royce Freeman, Sammy Watkins and tight end Travis Kelce made sense as well. Denver made me look smart for about three quarters, while Keenum moved the ball but never found the end-zone himself. Kelce was solid enough and Freeman scored, while my last guy was Sammy Watkins and he left the game with an injury.

There logic was there and I hit a few picks, but I didn’t produce a winner. It’s on to the next one, as Thursday rolls out another one-game showdown contest at FanDuel. Here’s a look at the guys I want in my NFL DFS lineup:

MVP (1.5x points): Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts ($16k)

This game has a pretty healthy 51.5 Total over at Bovada and other NFL betting sites, so there’s a solid chance we get a good amount of points in this one. While I love Tom Brady for this one, I do have to point out that Rob Gronkowski and Josh Gordon are both banged up.

Luck’s also going to be without T.Y. Hilton, but I think he’s playing catch-up a lot in this one and by the end of the game ends up putting up the most stats. He dropped 35 fantasy points on the Texans last week and I honestly wouldn’t be that shocked to see him do something similar again. Blake Bortles torched the Pats after all.

FLEX: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots ($17k)

While I love Luck and will be pairing him with some of his teammates, I also need to have Brady in this one. He gets Julian Edelman back and that should help his comfort level to a certain degree. He still has another safety blanket in James White and if The Gronk and Gordon suit up, all the better.

Brady’s final stat line won’t be quite as good as Luck’s, but it’ll be strong and have him worth rostering on this one-game slate.

FLEX: Zach Pascal, WR, Indianapolis Colts ($7.5k)

You can’t fit everyone in this game, so you’re looking for the very best performers and then figuring out how to actually afford them. Pascal is one ticket to that. With Hilton and Jack Doyle both ruled out already, there will be a lot of targets to go around for the Colts.

Eric Ebron might be chalky and nobody really knows if they can trust Pascal. Price and the fact that he saw 10 targets last week are all you have to go on, but given the clear role starting him down this week, that’ll do.

FLEX: Chester Rogers, WR, Indianapolis Colts ($9k)

Ditto for Rogers. The Colts just don’t have any viable bodies for Luck to work with, so it looks like he’s going to have to do it all on his own. These guys are still all going to see 10+ targets, however, as the Colts should be playing from behind and throwing a lot.

The aforementioned Ebron and pass-catching running back Nyheim Hines are going to be chalky and I hope they are. The plan is for Rogers and Pascal to eat up a lot of the targets and perform slightly better than their chalky counterparts.

FLEX: Chris Hogan, WR, New England Patriots ($10.5k)

You will want at least one Pats player to pair with Brady. You could just stack Colts here and roster the popular Ebron, but this is a GPP play. Not only am I fading a chalky option in the hopes he doesn’t meet expectations, but I’m using a similarly priced guy that nobody wants to roster.

Hogan has been positively dreadful in 2018, but with the return of slot man Julian Edelman and Gordon/Gronk possibly serving as decoys, there is logic to a blow-up outing for him here.

Summary

I’m not forgetting about Gronk, Edelman, Gordon, Hines, Ebron or James White. They’re all in play and could easily have big games. However, Vegas is projecting a bit of a shootout, so I want both quarterbacks in this one.

Two of Indy’s top wide receivers make my roster and then I get a Pats receiver that could be ridiculously contrarian. You can also try to stack some of the aforementioned options by fading one of Brady/Luck or punting with someone like Dwayne Allen or Kenjon Barner. That just isn’t a strategy I’m interested in tonight.

Hopefully my take on this game helps you in some way and if you plan on playing a Thu-Mon NFL DFS slate, you can use some of my logic here for that contest as well. Whatever you do, I wish you luck. Enjoy the games!

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