Week six in the NFL was pretty wild. The Miami Dolphins taking down the Chicago Bears in OT – with Brock Osweiler under center, no less – probably took the cake for me. It was a crazy week, but I did manage to deliver some solid NFL DFS picks (namely Jameis Winston).
At my last showdown stop on FanDuel, I also handed out a couple of good picks, with Carson Wentz and Saquon Barkley both going nuts.
I haven’t delivered a big winner yet this year, but hopefully I can turn things around on the MNF slate at FanDuel tonight. Let’s dive into my favorite daily fantasy football picks for tonight’s clash between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers:
MVP (x1.5 points): Aaron Rodgers , QB, Green Bay Packers ($20k)
A-Rod is insanely expensive even for a one-game slate, but there isn’t another player in this game with his upside. Rodgers has been banged up all year and really hasn’t put up amazing numbers, but a home game against the 49ers in front of the nation figures to be the perfect spot for him to pop off.
Rodgers historically thrives in these spots and it just so happens that the Niners (4th most passing TDs allowed) haven’t been good against the pass in 2018. Rodgers is going to blow up again at some point and it can’t hurt that his weapons are getting healthy. This isn’t a night to fade A-Rod and he’s 100% my top choice for the MVP slot.
FLEX: Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers ($11k)
Green Bay is banged up at wide receiver, so if there’s a chance guys like Randall Cobb and/or Geronimo Allison will still be held out or limited, you have to give star tight end Jimmy Graham a look. Graham hasn’t enjoyed an explosive stay in year one with the Packers, but he still has the role you want.
Graham is still a major red-zone factor and he’s been showered with targets (8, 7, 6, 11) over his last four games. He’s not the freak athlete he once was, but he can still win jump balls and will be a guy Rodgers looks to inside the 20s. Against a San Francisco pass defense that has issues with tight ends (tied for most TDs allowed to the position), I wouldn’t be shocked to see a big night.
FLEX: Marquise Goodwin, WR, San Francisco 49ers ($8.5k)
The Packers are the offense I’m looking to stack tonight, but the Niners are still going to find a little success. This is a positive matchup at home for the Green Bay defense, but they’re still a unit that gives up points. The Packers don’t give up crazy yardage through the air, but eight touchdowns allowed to wide receivers doesn’t exactly put them in elite company.
Goodwin is far from a scary receiver when you look at his overall skill-set, but he’s capable of springing big plays due to his top shelf speed. Against this defense, I won’t be the least bit surprised to see him bust off a long score. Goodwin could go slightly overlooked after not playing last week, but he’s arguably my favorite value on this one-game slate.
FLEX: Richie James Jr., WR, San Francisco 49ers ($6.5k)
Again, I’m not enamored with the 49ers offense in this one, but I’m guessing Green Bay leads throughout this one (9-point favorites at most NFL betting sites). That should force San Francisco to take it to the air early and often, so pretty much any of their receiving options are on the table tonight.
I am not overly into James, but he’s a cheap dart in a positive game script situation. Most will gravitate to Kendrick Bourne if they opt for a cheap Niners receiver, but with Dante Pettis out and Trent Taylor likely not playing either, both guys could be in play. I’ll take the savings with James and hope he’s the one who puts up better numbers.
FLEX: Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers ($14k)
I’ll cap things off with Adams, who has certainly lived up to his #1 wide receiver billing thus far in 2018. Aaron Rodgers has looked to him often, resulting in 8+ targets in every single game this year. Adams has also scored in four of five games and is going to be a threat for possibly his best outing of the young season.
As stated, the Niners have not been a feared defense this year and they have only been a middle of the pack unit against wide receivers. Given his role and talent, I tend to think Adams will be in for plenty of work here. I don’t think he tops the 140 yards he piled on in Detroit a week ago, but 100 yards and a score could be in order.
Ultimately, I want mostly Packers in a game where Green Bay is heavily favored, and understandably so.
There is mild concern with the Packers blowing this one away early, but they’ve really only won big once this year. I think the 49ers will be throwing a lot and playing from behind, but the score should be close enough to the point where Rodgers is still pushing the tempo and we see Green Bay passing game weapons pile up the stats.
In the event Vegas is spot on here and Green Bay opts to run the ball, you can consider trying to cram running back Aaron Jones into your FanDuel lineups. If you do that, perhaps pivoting from Graham to Jones and paying up over James to Bourne may be the better route.
For now, I am going with all passing game weapons and hoping for a mild shootout that the Packers pull away from in the second half.
Hopefully my insight helps you in some manner on Monday night. Either way, I wish you luck. Enjoy the game!