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Week 7 NFL DFS Picks at FanDuel – October 21st

Week six was probably good to you if you used some of my NFL DFS picks. Jameis Winston (32 fantasy points!) was a great guy to build around and I also hit on Ezekiel Elliott (18), Julio Jones, Tyler Boyd, Ravens D and Tevin Coleman.

My only “bad” plays were Christian McCaffrey (10 fantasy points), DeSean Jackson and Cameron Brate, who did snag a touchdown. I also faded Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley – both of which were expensive but totally smashed in excellent spots. I loved them, but chose to be a little more contrarian.

It wasn’t a perfect week, but it was honestly pretty good. Let’s keep the good plays going as I take a look as some of my favorite week seven daily fantasy football picks at FanDuel:

QB: Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns ($7.1k)

There are certainly some high-end quarterback options to consider this week, but I don’t love the pricing and/or matchups for most of them. I’m just going to punt with Baker, who will be low-owned despite having an awesome matchup against the Buccaneers (dead last against fantasy quarterbacks). He was not good last week, so recency bias and a slew of viable options should keep people off of him.

Mayfield is a talented passer and he has a few weapons, though. I’ll roll the dice on an awesome matchup and low ownership. If you can’t stomach it, pay up for Jared Goff ($8.3k) as he takes on a bad 49ers defense (27th vs. QBs).

RB: Todd Gurley – Los Angeles Rams ($10.2k)

I’m saving money at quarterback this week for two reasons; I don’t love the studs and I want Gurley. Maybe he’ll garner insane ownership and he probably should. I don’t really want chalky Gurley to go nuts and not be on him, nor do I want to miss out on a potentially low-owned Gurley.

Either is fine with me, but I can see him having low ownership due to the jacked up price. I’m more than willing to pay for it, as Gurley has been flat out unstoppable with 22+ fantasy points in every single game this year. He’s facing the rival 49ers in week seven and considering they rank just 22nd against running backs, I’m not running for the hills here.

You can fade Gurley, but I don’t see many viable pivots at running back and you’d be risking giving up (hopefully) 20-30 guaranteed points. Nothing is guaranteed in NFL DFS circles, but Gurley has been crushing and I’ll gladly be paying to get in on that this week. Fingers crossed that the majority of my GPPs don’t agree with me.

RB: Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys ($8.4k)

I’d pivot to Zeke off of Gurley, but then what? Instead, I’ll just pair the two. It sounds lazy, but in my research, I’m seeing NFL DFS experts trying to argue for the likes of Corey Clement, Kenyan Drake and even Peyton Barber as elite values.

Those guys do offer value, but I’m not sure running back is where we want it this week. I’ll just take the top shelf rushers here. Zeke doesn’t have an amazing matchup, but he’s got a huge division rivalry clash in D.C. He’s been very stable throughout 2018 and something tells me he shows up big for this one.

Besides, the last time Zeke faced the ‘Skins he piled on 150 rushing yards and two scores. I’ll be hoping for a repeat.

By the way, both Gurley and Zeke close out the Sunday main slate as part of the three afternoon games. If either of these guys are low-owned and smash, it’ll be a fun climb to the top of your tournament if the rest of this lineup pans out.

WR: Taylor Gabriel – Chicago Bears ($5.9k)

Receptions don’t count for much on FanDuel, so I want receivers that can make the most of them. That translates to speed and (ideally) touchdowns. Gabriel has blown up the past two weeks, topping 100+ yards in both games and scoring two times. He has a nice role at the moment and faces a Patriots secondary that has coughed up 9 scores through the air (3rd most) in 2018.

New England hasn’t been dominant against the pass in general, either. They’ve allowed the 11th most receptions and are only a middle of the pack defense in terms of receiving yardage allowed. Just watch what Tyreek Hill did to them last week to know how beatable they can be.

Gabriel isn’t Hill, but there are points to be had in this matchup. Whether Chicago torches the Pats early or throws all day playing catch-up, I tend to think Gabriel has a shot at a big day.

WR: D.J. Moore – Carolina Panthers ($4.9k)

I am spending big at running back this week because I don’t like the cheaper running backs and because the wide receiver position is lacking up top. You won’t find Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill or Antonio Brown on Sunday’s main slate and you also won’t find me paying for a bunch of guys as if they will for sure meet expectations.

There are a few that are worth your time (Adam Thielen, for one), but I’d rather load up on stud rushers and hope my research gives me some sleeper receivers that can crush.

I have a feeling Moore is one of them. He’s going to be aching to redeem himself after fumbling twice last week, but Carolina has already been trying to get their prized rookie involved more (9 targets the past two weeks). You can consider Devin Funchess or even hope for some revenge with Torrey Smith, but Moore makes a ton of sense against Philly’s secondary, which ranks 25th against wide receivers in 2018.

More specifically, the Eagles have allowed the most catches in football, as well as the second most receiving yards. Provided Cam Newton looks his way, I like Moore to have his best game yet as a pro in week seven.

WR: Marquise Goodwin – San Francisco 49ers ($5.5k)

The Rams aren’t exactly the first defense I want to target with explosive wide receivers, but they’re not the last, either. The Rams have a ton of talent, yet they’ve given up a lot of yardage and their fair share of points.

Wide receivers have done some serious damage against L.A., scoring 10 times on them through the air (2nd most allowed in 2018). Goodwin flashes his elite speed against Green Bay last week and even if it’s once, I think he can do it again at home against the Rams.

The Niners could torch the Rams early or they could just spend all day throwing the ball to catch-up. Either way, the speedy Goodwin seems like a fine gamble at this price.

TE: David Njoku – Cleveland Browns ($5.7k)

Jarvis Landry is in play to pair with Mayfield this week, but I’ll roll out the athletic Njoku instead. The two teamed up for a 7-55-1 line last week and Mayfield has targeted his tight end a whopping 22 times over the past two weeks.

Njoku has the talent and role to excel every single week and in week seven in particular, he draws a weak Tampa Bay defense that ranks dead last at stopping tight ends. Yeah, sign me up.

FLEX: Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints ($8.2k)

I find the value unbelievable on this main slate, so I’m not going to have any difficulty (or hesitance) getting to Kamara at a severely reduced price. This is a third elite rusher who won’t be active until the three afternoon games sound off and I absolutely need him in this lineup.

There is a lot working against Kamara. For one, despite a huge touch regression in his last contest, he’s still not cheap. The presence of Mark Ingram deflated his value in his last game, too, while a date with a very good Ravens defense on the road could be problematic.

But he’s still Alvin Kamara and all of that should help lower his ownership. I also like the idea of either the Saints being too much for Baltimore to handle (hey, the Bengals were) or the Saints end up playing from behind. The former could be because Kamara wrecks and the latter would give way to a lot of extra work as a receiver.

Either way, I’m going to stack three elite running backs. One will surely hit and all three have immense upside with the possibility of lower than usual ownership.

Not convinced? Pivot to Christian McCaffrey. He’s $200 cheaper than Kamara and could spurn an Eagles defense that has had issues stopping pass-catching running backs this year.

DEF: Indianapolis Colts ($4.1k)

I don’t love the Colts. They’ve given up 31+ points in each of their last three games. If they were facing anyone but the Bills, I’d never use them and I’d target them with the team they were facing.

But they are facing the Bills. Buffalo isn’t rolling Josh Allen or Nathan Peterman out there, either. They’re starting 34-year old Derek Anderson, who was brought in off the street. He isn’t going to come in and slice up the Colts. At least, he really shouldn’t. Some sacks, a couple of turnovers and maybe even a defensive touchdown might be in the cards.

Minnesota is also in a good spot against the turnover-prone Sam Darnold, while the Dolphins ($3.5k) continue to be an underrated defense and are at home. I probably like those actual defenses better, but nobody has a superior matchup this week.

Summary

I love this team. I get three stud running backs at a top-heavy position, three value receivers at a weak position, a solid value tight end and a great value quarterback. My defense is risky, but it’s got the best matchup on the board.

If you want some good pivots, drop from Gurley to McCaffrey. Pivot from Kamara to Brandin Cooks and upgrade from Goodwin to Mike Evans. That’s another variation I love for week seven, but I think the first one you see here could be more contrarian and also offers way more upside.

Here’s to hoping Gurley/Zeke/Kamara all wreck and people are scared off of stacking them to keep things balanced. I understand that fear, but in a weird week like this, it’s not one you need to give into.

Hopefully I helped you along in your NFL DFS lineup building process in some manner. Either way, I wish you luck this week. Thanks for reading and enjoy the games!

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