My last stop with a showdown NFL DFS picks column was last Thursday, where I correctly had Deshaun Watson (5 touchdowns!) in my MVP slot. I sadly faded DeAndre Hopkins, but had three other solid picks with Will Fuller, Danny Amendola and Lamar Miller all in my lineup.
I didn’t take down a GPP, but I was headed in the right direction. If you used my picks and made one right pivot, you could have won big.
Let’s try again for Monday night’s slate, when the New England Patriots take on the hapless Buffalo Bills. Here are my favorite daily fantasy football picks to use at FanDuel for this contest:
MVP (1.5x points): Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots ($18.5k)
I can’t fade Brady and if I’m using him I might as well stick him where he belongs – in the MVP slot. He’s having another great year even at the age of 41 and he has so many weapons to work with. Buffalo has a solid defense in terms of talent and the ability to contain things, but they’ve still allowed 13 touchdowns through the air in 2018.
Brady has’t always lit the world afire in this matchup, but he’s still had plenty of success. With a loaded supporting cast and his running game ailing, he should air it out a bit more this week. That should be a very good thing and I’ll gladly eat his salary.
FLEX: Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills ($7k)
You need to roster at least one Buffalo player and I won’t be paying a premium for that to be LeSean McCoy. There’s nothing wrong with that, but Bill Belichick defenses take away your best weapon and that’s undeniably Shady for the Bills.
I also do not at all trust Buffalo’s wide receiver talent, so I’ll just play it safe with their top tight end in Clay. Derek Anderson is at the helm again this week and is not very accurate or reliable in any way, but he sure should have to throw a lot and his safety blanket could be active in this one.
Clay has not been productive this year, but the role (5+ targets in three of his last four games) really hasn’t been bad. Considering the Pats grade out as the third worst defense against fantasy tight ends, he’s a pretty logical punt here.
The cheapest you can go anywhere tonight is $6k and the only other viable punt would be running back, Marcus Murphy. I actually would be game for Murphy is Shady is rested in this one, but it doesn’t look like that will be the case. He could obviously be a low-owned contrarian play if you want to take on some extra risk, however.
FLEX: Chris Hogan, WR, New England Patriots ($9.5k)
Now that I got my spare Bills one-off pick out of the way, I can focus on stacking the Pats. New England is favored handsomely (-13.5 at Sportsbetting.ag) to win this one and I’m not at all thinking they won’t. That’s probably going to lead to a ton of points and I wouldn’t be too shocked if someone like Hogan blew up in the process.
James White and Julian Edelman are two potentially chalky plays, but they’re also very PPR-heavy. On a site like FanDuel that is weighted more towards touchdowns, that’s not something I’m holding in high regard. I am shying away from those guys on this slate, as they could be high-owned, they’re expensive and their specialty is racking up catches.
The hope here is three-fold; those guys don’t score touchdowns, the scores go to my NFL DFS picks and Hogan specifically gets overlooked due to a slow start.
With all these other healthy weapons around him, Hogan is actually in a great spot to bust off some big plays and hopefully find the end-zone once or twice. The revenge narrative also comes into play here, as Hogan used to play for the Bills. I love the value here and I’d be a little shocked if Hogan drew huge ownership.
FLEX: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots ($13k)
The Gronk sat out last week and is technically listed as questionable, but all signs point to him suiting up. There is still the slight hesitance for some, as he could always be a last second scratch or perhaps just limited in his first game back.
That risk factor hopefully lowers his ownership, but this is otherwise a great spot for arguably the best tight end in football. His scoring upside and ability to dominate physically makes him a must for me tonight. There mere possibility that people may fade him to get to James White is just the cherry on top.
FLEX: Josh Gordon, WR, New England Patriots ($12k)
Gordon is cheaper and is a much safer lock to suit up and play a full game, so I won’t be too surprised if people roster him quite a bit. That’s fine, as I’ll gladly eat the chalk for an explosive deep threat that Tom Brady can’t stop praising in talks with the media.
Gordon has yet to have that true blow-up game with the Pats, but he’s still managed to post 12+ fantasy points in two out of his last three games. He’s got a solid role and has as much raw upside as anyone in the sport.
Buffalo has been stingy against receivers when it comes to yardage, but they’ve still given up seven scores to the position through the air. Don’t be shocked to see Gordon help that number grow on Monday night.
Vegas has it right here. I don’t know a world where the Bills win this game and with Derek Anderson leading the offensive charge, I can’t imagine one where they keep it close. This one seriously has the components of a crazy 55-7 game and I don’t even think that’s being dramatic.
I’m looking for a vintage Brady onslaught here, with all of his receivers doing serious damage. Hopefully the Pats don’t feed James White or Julian Edelman too much here and fading them pays off. If you feel good about the Bills, consider Shady or Kelvin Benjamin. I just don’t anticipate Derek Anderson finding much success. Hopefully Clay can get me 4-5 catches and a random score, but I won’t be holding my breath.
Overall, it’s Patriots or bust here. Roll with the NFL DFS picks I’ve provided or pivot as you see fit. Whatever you do, I wish you luck. Enjoy the game!