The NFL is back on Thursday night with a mediocre showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans. It’s actually a huge game for these teams, as Miami is 4-3 and trying to keep up with the New England Patriots and the Texans are also 4-3 and trying to win an amazing fifth game in a row.
These are still two pedestrian football teams and we have Brock Osweiler starting after all, but it could still be an interesting game. That’s especially the case for NFL DFS purposes, so let’s break down some of the best daily fantasy football picks for you to consider in FanDuel GPPs tonight:
MVP (1.5x points): Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans ($16.5k)
I don’t see how you can go away from Watson when it comes to the MVP spot. He’s been banged up and hasn’t been elite from a fantasy perspective over the last two games, but he has more upside than anyone else in this game. Miami’s defense has been solid on the year, but they did just get torched by Mitchell Trubisky and Matthew Stafford in successive weeks.
Watson has loads of upside, is at home in a huge game for the Texans and has plenty of weapons to work with. He’s a lock for me.
FLEX: Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans ($12.5k)
There is not much value to be had on this one-game slate, so I will willingly be fading DeAndre Hopkins and opting for a more balanced lineup. Nuk is great and I would be using him 9 times out of 10, but Fuller is a fantastic pivot. You do need to find a way to differentiate your squad in one-game showdowns, too, and I think going away from a guy who could be 40-60% owned is a great way to do that.
Hopkins has not been amazing in 2018 (20+ fantasy points just twice all year), so I think you can get away with the fade here. Fuller hasn’t been healthy, but he should be a full go this week. He’s always had big play upside and has a nose for the end-zone, while he and Watson have fantastic chemistry. I’m betting on him being the Houston receiver worth paying for tonight.
FLEX: Danny Amendola, WR, Miami Dolphins ($10k)
Albert Wilson is out for the year and Kenny Stills will also miss this game. That understandably puts spare Miami receivers in play, but I’ll only be focusing on the guy Brock Osweiler can actually trust. That’s slot demon Danny Amendola, who scored last week and has racked up 14 catches on 18 targets since Osweiler entered the starting lineup.
Amendola is not explosive, but his role is concrete. Osweiler is facing a tough defense on the road on a short week, so he’ll be looking to get the ball out quickly. He’s always been a checkdown kind of guy anyways, so Amendola projects as a solid, albeit less than spectacular play.
I just don’t trust DeVante Parker and all the other scrub Dolphins receivers in this spot, either.
FLEX: Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans ($11.5k)
Miami got roasted by Detroit’s ground game a week ago and we’re finally starting to see Lamar Miller take over in Houston’s backfield. Miller put up his first 100-yard rushing day of the season and given a very solid role against Miami’s 29th ranked run defense, he feels like a logical play.
This game is probably going to be a bit of a slugfest, so I want a masher on the ground who will get a lot of touches and might score when the ball nears the goal-line. Kenyan Drake is also in play and Alfred Blue is a sneaky touchdown-vulture option, but I need to have Miller on this slate.
FLEX: Ka’imi Fairbairn, K, Houston Texans ($9.5k)
Many will try to force in one more high upside option, but this last spot goes to Houston’s kicker, who has been pretty reliable with 8+ fantasy points in all but one game this year. Houston’s offense can move the ball, but they offense see drives stall. Against a capable Dolphins defense, that could happen a bit more than usual this week and I expect Fairbairn to be pretty active.
This is unlikely to be a very explosive game, but I still want that Watson/Fuller pairing for the handful of big plays they have the potential of putting on tape. I want Lamar Miller to grind this game away, Fairbarin to convert scoring opportinities and Amendola to soak up most of Miami’s intermediate work. If he scores, it’s only an added bonus.
I would still absolutely try another variation of this lineup where I work in Nuk (maybe fade Miller in that case), but I like this lineup out of all the combinations I’ve looked at.
Hopefully my stance helps you win tonight. Regardless, thanks for reading and I wish you luck!