Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Pick – Game 3

The NHL is set up with another strong slate of action throughout Monday night. The Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning will meet up in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals on June 20. These two teams have been great all postseason and will look for a big win in this one. This game will drop the puck at around 8:00 PM Eastern time on ABC.

Colorado has earned a record of 14-2 throughout the playoffs as the top seed in the Central division. The Avalanche knocked off the Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues and Edmonton Oilers to reach the Finals. Colorado has won seven games in a row in route to a 2-0 series lead in this one. The Avalanche will look to take a stranglehold with a win on the road.

The Lightning have put up a record of 12-7 so far this postseason as the third seed in the Atlantic division. Tampa Bay eliminated the Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers and New York Rangers to reach the Stanley Cup for the third consecutive season. The Lightning have fallen down 2-0 in this series and will look to close that gap. I expect Tampa Bay to come out fast in this one.

These two teams have been great throughout the playoffs and will look for a big win in this one. The Avalanche have dominated this series so far and will look to keep it going in Game 3. Tampa Bay will look to bounce back as they to claw their way back into this series. If either team can come out quickly in this one, it could be enough for the win on Monday night.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Colorado Avalanche +1 ½ (-270) -110 Over 6 (+100)
Tampa Bay Lightning -1 ½ (+220) -110 Under 6 (-120)


Team Data Colorado Avalanche Tampa Bay Lightning
Playoff Record 12-7 14-2
Playoff Away/ Home Record 7-0 7-1
Playoff GF/GP 4.75 2.89
Playoff GF/GP Away/ Home 5.14 3.63
Playoff SV% .901 .915
Playoff SV% Away/ Home .898 .939

Betting Trends

Colorado Avalanche

  • 24-10 in non-Conference games
  • 9-2 when leading in series
  • 7-1 after shutting out their opponent
  • 32-14 after a win by two or more goals
  • 38-19 after scoring four goals or more
  • 28-8 after three or more straight wins

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • 22-12 in non-Conference games
  • 5-2 when trailing in series
  • 18-16 after allowing four or more goals
  • 12-7 after a loss by two goals or more
  • 11-3 after scoring one goal or less
  • 32-28 against team with a winning record

These two teams have met up twice so far in the Stanley Cup Finals. Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin both had a goal and an assist in Game 1. Andre Burakovsky scored the game winner in overtime as Colorado won 4-3. Mikko Rantanen had three assists in Game 2, while Cale Makar and Nichushkin both had two goals Darcy Kuemper stopped all 16 shots as the Avalanche won 7-0.

Special Teams

The Avalanche have been dominant on the power play throughout the postseason. Colorado has scored on 17 of their 52 power play chances, which is a 32.7 percent success rate. The Avalanche have killed off 34 of their opponents 43 power play attempts, which is a 79.1 percent penalty kill. Colorado has scored three power play goals on seven chances in this series so far.

Tampa Bay has had a solid power play in the playoffs so far. The Lightning have capitalized on 14 of their 68 power play opportunities, which is a 20.6 percent power play. Tampa Bay has given up 13 power play goals on 64 penalties against, which is a 79.7 percent kill rate. The Lightning have gone 0-6 on the power play in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Colorado’s special teams have been better in this series and in the playoffs. Both teams have similar penalty kills, but the Avalanche have shut down the Lightning’s power play so far. Colorado’s power play has also dominated in this series. If either team can get a power play goal early in this one, it could be enough to give them the win on Monday.

Goaltending Comparison

Darcy Kuemper will get the start in the crease for Colorado in this matchup. Kuemper has started in 12 games this postseason, going 8-2 in those games. He has put up a .901 save percentage and a GAA of 2.44 in those outings. Kuemper finished with a 16 shot shutout in Game 2 of this series to help the Avalanche earn the win.

Andrei Vasilevskiy will get the nod between the pipes for the Lightning on Monday night. Vasilevskiy has earned a record of 12-7 throughout the playoffs. He has posted a save percentage of .918 and a 2.60 GAA in his starts. Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 30 shots in Saturday’s tilt, which was not nearly enough to earn the win.

These two goalies have been solid throughout the postseason and will look for a big win in this one. The Avalanche have been better on defense, limiting Tampa Bay’s scoring chances heavily, while attacking extremely well. The Lightning will need to do a better job getting quality shots on net in Game 3. If either team can break through on one of these goalie early, it could be enough for the win.

Pick Overview

These two teams have been solid throughout this postseason and will look for a big win in Game 3. Tampa Bay has struggled to get going in this series, but I think they will change things up as the series shifts home. The Lightning are also coming off a blowout loss in the Finals and I think they will come out angry. If Tampa Bay can get the early lead, I think they can close the gap in this series.

Bovada has both teams listed as a -110 against the money line in this one. This gives even odds to both teams to earn the Game 3 win. I think that this line should be closer to even with Tampa Bay coming back home down 2-0. The Lightning are going to fight back and Colorado is due for a road loss in the playoffs. At even odds, I like the value on Tampa Bay to earn the win.

The Bet
Tampa Bay Lightning
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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