Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Pick – Game 4

The NHL is set up with another great slate of action on June 22. The Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning will look to earn a big win as they meet up in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals. These two teams have been great throughout this postseason and will look for a big win in this one. This game will drop the puck at around 8:00 PM Eastern time on ABC.

Colorado has earned a record of 14-3 throughout the postseason as the top seed in the Central division. The Avalanche are coming off a loss in Game 3, which ended a seven game winning streak. Colorado has been great on the road all playoffs long and will look to bounce back. I expect the Avalanche to try and come out quickly in this one.

The Lightning have put up a record of 13-6 so far these playoffs as the third seed in the Atlantic division. Tampa Bay is coming off a much needed win in Game 3 and will look to tie this series back up. The Lightning have given up the first goal in all three games this series and will look for a faster start. I expect Tampa Bay to try and step up early on Wednesday night.

These two teams have been solid throughout the postseason and will look for a huge win in Game 4. The Avalanche were off to a hot start in this series after winning Game’s 1 and 2 at home. Tampa Bay was able to bounce back in Game 3 though. If either team can come out quickly in this one, it could be enough to lead them to the win.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Colorado Avalanche -1 ½ (+215) -115 Over 6 (-105)
Tampa Bay Lightning +1 ½ (-260) -105 Under 6 (-115)

 

Team Data Colorado Avalanche Tampa Bay Lightning
Playoff Record 14-3 13-6
Playoff Away/ Home Record 7-1 8-1
Playoff GF/GP 4.59 3.05
Playoff GF/GP Away/ Home 4.75 3.89
Playoff SV% .895 .917
Playoff SV% Away/ Home .887 .941

Betting Trends

Colorado Avalanche

  • 24-11 in non-Conference games
  • 9-3 when leading playoff series
  • 21-8 after allowing four or more goals
  • 13-4 after a loss by two or more goals
  • 39-18 against team with a winning record

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • 23-12 in non-Conference games
  • 6-2 when trailing in playoff series
  • 22-16 after a win by two or more goals
  • 26-18 after scoring four goals or more
  • 33-28 against team with a winning record

These two teams have met up in three exciting games so far. Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin both had a goal and an assist in Game 1 as Colorado won 4-3 win overtime. Mikko Rantanen had three assists in Game 2, while Cale Makar and Nichushkin both scored two goals as the Avalanche won 7-0. Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat and Steven Stamkos all had a goal and an assist as Tampa Bay won 6-2 in Game 3.

Special Teams

The Avalanche have been strong on the power play throughout the postseason. Colorado has scored 19 goals on 56 power play chances, which is a 33.9 percent success rate. The Avalanche have killed off 39 of their opponents 49 power play attempts, which is a 79.6 percent penalty kill. Colorado has capitalized on 4 of their 13 power play attempts.

Tampa Bay has been solid on both sides of special teams in the playoffs. The Lightning have capitalized on 15 of their 74 power play opportunities, which is a 20.3 percent power play. Tampa Bay has given up 15 power play goals on 68 penalties against, which is a 77.9 percent kill rate. The Lightning have scored on 2 of their 10 power play chances this series.

Colorado has the edge on special teams in this series and will look to step up early in this one. The Avalanche have had the better power play and penalty kill throughout the playoffs. Colorado gave up their first two power play goals of this series in Game 3 and will look to tighten up. If either team can get a power play goal in this one, it could be enough for the win.

Goaltending Comparison

Colorado has a question mark in their crease entering Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Darcy Kuemper has had injury issues and has been up and down all postseason. He has posted a .892 save percentage and a GAA of 2.76 in his 13 starts. Pavel Francouz has been solid in relief, but has struggled a bit as well. He has put up a save percentage of .906 and a 2.81 GAA in 7 appearances.

Andrei Vasilevskiy will get the nod between the pipes for the Lightning on Wednesday night. Vasilevskiy has earned a record of 13-7 throughout his 20 starts in the playoffs. He has put up a save percentage of .920 and a 2.57 GAA in those outings. Vasilevskiy stopped 37 of 39 shots in Game 3’s win and will look to carry momentum into this one.

Tampa Bay has the edge with Vasilevskiy in the crease in this one. The Avalanche will need to decide which goalie to go with after Darcy Kuemper was pulled in Game 3 after allowing 5 goals on 22 shots. Whichever goalie starts for Colorado will need to step up in this one. If either team can get a hot start from their goaltender, it could give them the edge in this one.

Pick Overview

These two teams have been solid throughout the postseason and will look for a huge win in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals. The Avalanche lost their first road game on Monday night, while Tampa Bay has won eight straight home games. I think Colorado will come out stronger on defense in this one. If the Avalanche can get the early lead again, I think they can take the 3-1 series lead.

Bovada has Colorado listed as a -115 against the money line in this one. This implies that the Avalanche will win this game around 53.5 percent of the time. I think that this line is accurate with Colorado coming off a blowout loss. The Avalanche will look to come out fast after an embarrassing loss in Game 3. As slight favorites, I like the value on Colorado.

The Bet
Colorado Avalanche
-115
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

  1. The odds of a game does not mean that team will percentage wise on way or another,

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