It’s been a few days since I last got a pick out, so I won’t spend much time on my last pick which ended up in the loss column anyway.
I had the Maple Leafs on the puckline at +105 over the visiting Ducks who were playing their second game in as many nights.
Despite building a 3-1 lead, the Maple Leafs once again struggled to maintain the lead, seeing the game tied at three’s before once again taking a 4-3 lead.
Still, the Ducks tied it once more before the game went into overtime where the Maple Leafs won it by a 5-4 score.
It was another frustrating blown lead like the Maple Leafs did to cost me a three-way moneyline pick earlier in the week, but we’ll move on to this 11-game Tuesday night schedule!
Season Record: 92-80-1
Now let’s take a look at this free NHL pick featuring the Blues vs. Ducks from Anaheim!
Blues vs. Ducks Betting Odds
- Blues (-153)
- Ducks (+138)
- Blues -1.5 (+174)
- Ducks +1.5 (-199)
- Over 5.5 (+109)
- Under 5.5 (-120)
Blues vs. Ducks NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s take a look at each of these clubs before I get into my final pick!
The St. Louis Blues own a three-point advantage over the streaking Avalanche for top spot in the Central Division, but it’s not due to their recent play.
In fact, the Blues have struggled of late, dropping seven of their last nine games and four of their last five entering this matchup tonight.
After wrapping up a three-game homestand with two consecutive losses, the Blues will hit the road for this one where they’ve gone 14-10-4 on the season.
Their offense has been good on the road as they are tied for 12th with 3.00 goals per game on the season, but they’ve also been excellent on the power play away from home, checking in at third with a 26.6% mark.
Despite losing two of their last three, that power play has been real good in that time, posting a 40% clip (4 for 10).
Defending on the road has been an issue, however, especially compared to their work at home.
The Blues haven’t been terrible as they rank 17th with 3.21 goals against per game away from home, but they also rank fifth with 2.39 goals against per game at home, so they’re allowing almost one more goal per game on the road than they are at home.
Their penalty kill has been solid, yet unspectacular away from home where they own a 15th-ranked 78.8% mark on the year.
This team also doesn’t produce the best advanced numbers we’ve seen, especially on the road.
At 5v5 on the road, the Blues rank 26th with a 46.67% Corsi For%, 25th with a 45.90% Scoring Chances For% and 27th with a 42.86% High-Danger Chances For%.
The Blues haven’t received much in terms of goaltending of late either, but it’s going to be Jake Allen going tonight and he’s been much better this season than last.
Allen enters this one sporting a 2.26 GAA and .925 Sv% on the season and he’s also turned in a similar 2.36 GAA and .925 Sv% on the road in 15 outings (13 starts) and has made just four appearances at home this season.
Allen is also red-hot at the moment, posting a .930 Sv% over his last four outings, although he’s lost his last two starts despite posting a .915 Sv% in that time.
The Ducks return home from a successful five-game road trip that saw them come away with three wins, most recently a 3-2 win over the Sabres in Buffalo.
In fact, the Ducks managed to get at least one point in all five games, going 3-0-2 on the trip.
Still, they’re just one point ahead of the Sharks for third-last in the Western Conference and a clean 10 points back of the second Wild Card spot in the conference.
A big problem for the Ducks this season has been offense, which doesn’t come as a big surprise considering the transition to a youth movement up front.
The Ducks enter this one ranked 26th with 2.72 goals per game on home ice this season where their power play has struggled with a 27th-ranked 15.5% clip on the campaign.
That power play has just one goal over its last seven games, posting just a 5.9% clip in that time.
Defensively, they’ve been better as they sit 13th with 2.80 goals against per game at home this season while their 15th-ranked home penalty kill enters with a solid 81.6% mark.
Looking at their even-strength possession marks, the Ducks sit in the middle of the pack relative to the rest of the league on home ice.
At 5v5 at home, they rank 18th with a 50.26% Corsi For%, 17th with a 51.70% Scoring Chances For%, but also sixth with a real nice 55.82% High-Danger Chances For%.
They’ve also received some quality goaltending on home ice, especially from tonight’s starter John Gibson.
Gibson enter this one sporting a 2.96 GAA and .904 Sv% on the season, but also a 2.62 GAA and .913 Sv% at home in 19 starts.
After a tough January in which he posted a 3.36 GAA and .888 Sv% in nine starts, Gibson has been better in the month of February, posting a 2.39 GAA and .915 Sv% in a small two-start sample size.
Gibson allowed four goals to the Blues in their most recent in St. Louis on January 13th, but also just one in a previous meeting in St. Louis earlier this season.
These teams have certainly trended in opposite directions of late and the Ducks should feel pretty good about this one as a result.
That’s not to count out the Blues as they’re certainly the superior team, but one that has struggled to find the back of the net of late, and I’m not sure that task gets any easier against Gibson on home ice.
The Blues have scored just two goals in four of their last five games and in each of their last two on the road.
To me, this one looks like a low-scoring affair.
The Ducks defend well at home where Gibson is easily at his best.
While the Blues are a middle-of-the-pack road defense, Jake Allen has been excellent this season and has outplayed his partner Jordan Binnington in the process.
They should also be able to keep this Ducks offense in check, one that comes in after a successful road trip but also one that ranks near the bottom of the league on average.
If there’s a team to quiet down this offense, the Blues are a solid candidate.
As a result, I’ll look for a low-scoring affair from the Honda Center tonight, so give me the under 5.5.