Canadiens vs. Sabres Pick – NHL November 5th

I’m writing this article with my pick pending from last night, so I can’t comment on it one way or another. It looks like it could go either way at this point, fingers crossed. A small card tonight in the NHL, as Wedneday’s usually are, but I think I found a winner. I have made plenty of bank in Buffalo Sabre games this season and I’ll be going back to the well tonight. Instead of fading them, which isn’t a bad idea in its own right, I am going to take a different approach in this game. No, I don’t foresee myself taking the Sabres in this game, or in any other Sabres game for that matter, before they start to show drastic improvements. I’ll go another route by fading them in a different way. Output for goals from the Sabres is usually lacking. Actually, it is always lacking, because this team is on pace to being one of the lowest scoring teams in history. Their offense is essentially a bunch of players that should probably be in the AHL, with a couple of over the hill veterans that don’t provide much added in. Former Canadien Brian Gionta is in fact a centerpiece of the team. The Habs knew what they were doing when they dumped him when they did. His best days are in the past with the Devils are long gone.

Tonight the Canadiens take their show on the road to Buffalo where the Sabres will look to make it two in a row against the Habs. Buffalo had a huge win against the Red Wings a few nights ago, winning as +240 dogs. They have beaten the Wings and Sharks this season, so they have that to be proud of thus far this year. When you’re a team with little talent, you need to try and build off of positive momentum like that. We’ll see what they can do tonight.

Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres

Montreal has started the season off extremely well, sporting an 8-3-1 record thus far. However, no Canadien fan really cares what the team does in October anymore. I’m sure they don’t want to start off awful because that would induce some sweating. But a long playoff run to the finals is what they’re looking for. Anything less and I think it would be a failure. Perhaps failure it too harsh, but it would most definitely be a disappointment. I believe the Habs will ultimately be one of the better defensive teams in the NHL when it is all said and done. As it is now, they are allowing 2.92 goals per game, which isn’t awful but for a team with Carey Price in net it could, and I think will be better. That number should go down tonight against the Sabres. Buffalo got a huge outing in their last game from the offense in a 3-2 win, albeit, the 3rd goal came in a shootout. But for the Sabres that is certainly an improvement.
Considering they average 1.08 goals per game, yes, 3 goals in a game in quite the accomplishment for them. As a result of their ineptness on the offensive end, the UNDER has gone 8-3 in their games. 1.08 goals is of course last in the NHL by a wide margin. As far as their history goes against the Canadiens, they haven’t scored a goal against them in their last two meetings. In fact, in their last five games the Sabres have averaged only 0.8 goals. We need to go seven games back to find when they scored more than 2 goals against the Canadiens, and again, that was in a shootout win. Note that this isn’t a series where they meet once every year, the seventh game I was referring to was on March 3rd of 2013 so these are recent trends. Likewise, the UNDER has gone 6-2-1 in the Canadiens and Sabres last ten matchups. I like this game to go UNDER the total of 5.

Pick – UNDER 5 GOALS (-115) @ (Best Odds)