I made a trio of free NHL picks last night and once again we landed in profit territory by going 2 for 3.
The first winner of the night came in the matchup between the Islanders and Devils in New Jersey where I had the Islanders as -116 favorites on the moneyline.
It was a close game throughout that saw the Islanders take three one-goal leads, only to see the game go into overtime at 3-3. However, captain Anders Lee won the game in OT and netted us a moneyline winner in the process.
At roughly the same time, I had the Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils to play to a low-scoring affair from New York with the under 6.5
However, this one didn’t come to fruition as the Avalanche took a 2-0 lead, only to see the Rangers even the score at two. That was a bad indicator, and the Rangers would go on to win this one by a 5-3 count and the total flew over 6.5 in the process.
Finally, I had the Boston Bruins to go into Nashville and win that one on the moneyline at -117 odds.
This is where the night turned profitable as the B’s handled the Predators with relative ease in scoring six times en route to a 6-2 win in John Hynes’ Predators head coaching debut.
The 2 for 3 night netted us 0.99 units in profit as I turn my attention to tonight’s three-game schedule!
Season Record: 69-58-1
Now let’s take a look at this free NHL pick featuring the Capitals vs. Flyers from the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia!
Capitals vs. Flyers Betting Odds
- Capitals (-123)
- Flyers (+111)
- Capitals -1.5 (+195)
- Flyers +1.5 (-225)
- Over 6.5 (+102)
- Under 6.5 (-113)
Capitals vs. Flyers NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s take a look at each of these teams before getting into my final pick!
The Capitals will play their second game in as many nights tonight after blasting the Ottawa Senators away by a 6-1 count on Tuesday night.
The win was their third in a row as they scored at least four goals for the third straight game and have tallied a total of 15 in that time, good for an even 5.00 goals per game.
This is a Capitals team that’s actually enjoyed more success on the road than at home in terms of offense.
They rank third with 3.61 goals per game on the road this season which is slightly more than their 3.57 mark at home while their road power play of 25% – good for fifth league wide – is much better than their 22nd-ranked home power play of 18%.
Defensively, they’ve been pretty solid all around as they’ll enter this one ranked 13th with 3.04 goals against per game on the road this season while their 80.5% mark on the penalty kill away from home checks in at 10th.
The Capitals’ possession numbers would seem to back up their strong work at both ends of the ice on the road.
At 5v5 on the road this season, the Capitals rank ninth with a 50.10% Corsi For% (CF%), eighth with a 50% Scoring Chances For% (SCF%) and 11th with a 48.61% High-Danger Chances For% (HDCF%).
That’s some pretty solid work all-around as Braden Holtby gets the nod tonight between the pipes after Ilya Samsonov earned the win with 26 saves 24 hours earlier.
Holtby enter this one sporting a 2.99 GAA and .902 Sv% on the season to go along with a 18-7-4 mark thanks to a plethora of goal support.
On the road, he’s had a tough time in posting a 3.31 GAA and .892 SV% across 15 starts, but again has a 9-5-1 record thanks to his offense.
He’s struggled mightily of late, posting a 3.29 GAA and .884 Sv% in nine December starts and allowed three goals on 28 shots (.893 SV%) in a 5-4 overtime win over the Sharks on Sunday in his first start to the month of January.
It’s safe to say the Flyers are glad to be back home.
They completed a six-game road trip last night with a hard-fought 5-4 overtime loss in Carolina, but the loss put them at 1-4-1 on the six-game trip with their lone win in that time coming over Anaheim against the lowly Ducks.
The Flyers defense has been brutalized of late, allowing at least five goals in four straight games and in five of their six games on the road trip.
They’ve averaged 5.25 goals against per game over their last four and sunk to 30th in road defense in the process.
However, things get a lot brighter for this team on home ice where they rank first with 1.95 goals against per game and fifth with an 86% mark on the penalty kill on home ice as well.
Their road offense has also struggled, but the Flyers rank third with 3.79 goals per game on home ice this season where their power play sits eighth with a potent 24.3% clip.
Like the Capitals, the underlying advanced metrics seem to support such work at both ends of the ice.
At 5v5 at home this season, the Flyers rank eighth with a 53.49% CF%, sixth with a 55.07% SCF% and 13th with a 54.67% HDCF%.
Furthermore, they’ve been getting outstanding goaltending at home as their .947 Sv% at 5v5 at home ranks second in the league, thanks in large part to Carter Hart who will get the starting nod in this one tonight.
Hart will enter this one sporting a 2.61 GAA and .905 Sv% on the season, but his season had truly been a tale of two seasons.
You would expect those gaping splits to narrow as the season moves along, but here we are across the midway point of the season and they’ve only widened as the season has moved forward.
Both teams played last night and both teams traveled to get to Philly for this one tonight.
The Flyers haven’t played well of late, and while they are just 9-13-2 on the road this season, they are a lights-out 13-2-4 on home ice as well.
The matchup is tough against the best team in the east at the moment, but I can’t help but like the Flyers as home underdogs considering their work at home and the work of Carter Hart at home.
The Caps have lost two of their last three and three of their last five on the road while the Flyers have won four in a row on home ice.
It should be a great hockey game, but I would look for the Flyers to come back home and get back into the win column tonight as underdogs.