I’ve been feeling it for the better part of the last five weeks with my NHL pick and had another big night on Wednesday with a pair of winners at underdog odds.
The Winnipeg Jets and Toronto Maple Leafs got together in Toronto where I had the road side to win at +170 odds.
It looked like that was going to happen in regulation, but a late Auston Matthews goal with less than 20 seconds on the clock tied it, and made things more difficult on us in the process. A chaotic overtime and shootout ensued, but the Jets won an entertaining shootout and delivered a real nice profit in the process.
At about the same time, I had the Flyers as home underdogs to take out the visiting Capitals, and that they did.
It was a 2-2 tie game late, but the Flyers notched a shorthanded goal courtesy of a Kevin Hayes breakaway and the Flyers won 3-2 as +111 home dogs.
It was a 2.82-unit profit when it was all said and done.
I’ll certainly take that and move onto tonight’s big 11-game NHL schedule!
Season Record: 71-58-1
Now let’s take a look at this free NHL pick featuring the Coyotes and Lightning from Tampa Bay!
Coyotes vs. Lightning Betting Odds
- Coyotes (+170)
- Lightning (-200)
- Coyotes +1.5 (-150)
- Lightning -1.5 (+130)
- Over 6 (-120)
- Under 6 (+100)
Coyotes vs. Lightning NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s take a look at each of these teams before getting into my final pick!
The Coyotes will play the second half of their Florida swing tonight as they take on the Lightning after handing the Panthers a 5-2 loss on Tuesday night.
It was a rare road offensive burst for a team that sits 20th with 2.70 goals per game on the road this season, but the Coyotes are actually hot offensively, averaging 4.50 goals per game over their last four.
It appears the Taylor Hall trade is indeed paying dividends for the team as they needed an infusion of offense to complement what has been among the best defensive groups in the NHL.
In fact, the Coyotes rank last with 2.43 goals per game on the season despite being outshot by an average of two shots per game on the road as well.
On special teams, the Coyotes have been solid on the road as well, ranking 11th with a 20% mark on their power play away from home and 18th with a 78.3% mark on the penalty kill away from home.
As a result, it’s not hard to see why the ‘Yotes have gone 14-6-3 on the road this season while they enter this one riding a four-game win streak.
That said, the advanced numbers aren’t the best.
At 5v5 on the road this season, the Coyotes rank 22nd with a 46.70% Corsi For%, 26th with a 45.10% Scoring Chances For% and 23rd with a 44.54% High-Danger Chances For%.
Clearly, they haven’t had much trouble defying the advanced stats. However, that’s due in large part to their .945 Sv% on the road at 5v5 play, which is the best mark in the NHL.
The problem for the Coyotes tonight is that both Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta, their top two goaltenders, are both out with injury and backup Adin Hill will get another start tonight.
Now, Hill won in Florida on Tuesday and owns a 2.03 GAA and .944 Sv% in three NHL games this season.
However, he also posted a so-so 2.77 GAA and .907 Sv% on the season and owns just a 2.84 GAA and .904 Sv% on the season.
Those are by no means terrible numbers, but they certainly suggest regression moving forward.
And the Lightning are the perfect candidate to deliver that regression.
All they did on Tuesday was put a nine-spot on the Canucks while they’re averaging 5.00 goals per game and are once again the NHL’s highest-scoring team and highest-scoring home team.
The Bolts score 3.69 goals per game on the season, but also average 4.14 goals per game at home where their power plat is clicking at an unworldly 37% on the campaign.
Of course, this team is rolling right now as it appears the Lightning have hit the stride many were looking for after a sluggish first half to the season, for the most part.
Tampa Bay has now won eight straight games to rocket themselves into second spot in the Atlantic Division and are looking more and more like the team that set record with 62 wins a season ago.
Defensively, the Lightning are roughly in the middle of the pack with 3.05 goals against per game but their penalty kill has been excellent in posting an 85.9% mark at home this season.
They have killed off 20 of their last 21 penalties over the last six games, good for a 95.2% mark,
Getting the start in goal in hopes of keeping the streak alive will be No.1 netminder Andre Vasilevskiy.
Vasilevskiy will also enter this one red-hot in winning six in a row, posting a 2.17 GAA and .932 Sv% in that time.
For the season, he owns a 2.74 GAA and .911 Sv% and he’s been better on the road with a 2.96 GAA and .903 Sv% at home.
Nonetheless, he’s red-hot entering this one tonight.
Both teams are feeling it right now as the Coyotes own a four-game winning streak of their own against the eight-gamer the Lightning carry into action.
That said, I’m not sure there’s a better team in this league than the Lightning when they’re firing on all cylinders and that’s the case tonight.
Hill has been good in his NHL action this season, but his numbers show regression and the white-hot offense of the Lightning are a perfect candidate to deliver that regression.
Tampa Bay’s special teams are absolutely dominant at home and their goaltender is red-hot as well.
To me, there’s just too many signs pointing towards the sizzling-hot Lightning for this one.
Rather than lay juice with the moneyline or risk the puckline, I’m going to in between and take the Lightning to win this one in regulation time tonight at what I believe are valuable -125 odds.