Dallas Stars vs St. Louis Blues Game 5 NHL Pick – May 3rd

The NHL is set up with another two game night on May 3. The Dallas Stars and the St. Louis Blues will meet up for game 5 of their playoff series on Friday night. These two teams are tied up in a 2-2 playoff series, which should help lead to a tight matchup in Game 5. I expect both teams to put up a tough performance in a really pivotal Game 5. This game is set to start at around 9:30 PM Eastern time on NBCSN.

The Stars finished out the regular season with a record of 43-32-7, which put them in fourth place of the Central Division and in the top Wild Card spot. Dallas met up with the Nashville Predators in the first round and were able to pull off that upset in six games. The Stars have carried some of that momentum into this round and has put up a 2-2 tie with the Blues through four games.

St. Louis jumped up in the second half of the season to enter the playoffs. The Blues finished out the regular season in third place of the Central Division with a record of 45-28-9 after being in the last place of the NHL earlier in the season. St. Louis was able to knock off the Winnipeg Jets in six games in the first round. The Blues will look to take a pivotal Game 5 at home on Friday night.

These two teams have played a tight playoff series so far. In the regular season though, the Stars were able to take the series 3-1. Each team has won one game at home and loss the other so far in the playoff series. I expect each team to come out fast to try and earn the Game 5 victory on Friday night.

Previous Matchups

The Blues and the Stars met up in Game 1 of this series on April 25. Vladimir Tarasenko scored two goals and Robby Fabbri scored his first of the playoffs. Jordan Binnington stopped 27 of the 29 shots to help St. Louis earned a 3-2 victory. Game 2 stayed in St. Louis on April 27. Colton Parayko had a goal and an assist, but it wasn’t enough. Roope Hintz had two goals and an assist, while Jason Dickinson and Mats Zuccarello each had two assists. Ben Bishop turned away 32 of 34 shots to help the Stars earn a 4-2 win.

Game’s 3 and 4 shifted to Dallas on April 29 and May 1. Tyler Bozak and Jaden Schwartz each had a goal and an assist, while Jay Bouwmeester added two assists. Jordan Binnington had 28 saves on 31 shots to help give the Blues the series lead again with a 4-3 victory. In Game 4, Ryan O’Reilly had a solid performance with two assists, but it was not enough. Alexander Radulov, Tyler Seguin, and Mats Zuccarello all had two points for the Stars. Ben Bishop made 27 saves on 29 shots to help lead Dallas to a 4-2 win.

These two teams have been going back and forth throughout the entire series. Neither team has looked like the obvious frontrunner to win this series and it has led to a very exciting couple of matchups. I expect these two teams to continue to play tight matchups as the series continues.

Special Teams

The Stars finished the regular season with a solid performance on both sides of special teams. Throughout the regular season, the Stars averaged a power-play percentage of 21 percent and an 82.8 percent penalty kill percentage. In the playoffs, Dallas has a 21.9 percent power play. The Stars have a 92.6 percent penalty kill percentage.

St. Louis put up similar special teams’ stats to the Stars throughout the regular season. The Blues had a 21.1 percent power play success rate and an 81.5 percent penalty kill percentage throughout the regular season. St. Louis power play has been scoring at a rate of 22.6 percent in the playoffs, while their penalty kill has stopped their opponent’s 75 percent of the time.

The Stars penalty kill in the playoffs so far gives them an advantage on special teams over St. Louis. Dallas was able to stop the Nashville Predators on all fifteen of their opportunities in the regular season. The Blues have been able to break through against the Stars twice in this series but will look to find more success as the series goes along.

Goalies

Ben Bishop has put up a Vezina nomination-worthy performance in the net so far this season. Bishop put up a save percentage of .934 and a 1.98 GAA throughout the regular season. In the playoffs, Bishop has a .931 save percentage and a GAA of 2.24 throughout the playoffs. The Stars will look for Bishop to continue to lead them in Game 5.

Jordan Binnington jumped right onto the scene this season. Binnington finished the regular season with a .927 save percentage and a 1.89 GAA. In the playoffs Binnington has not been quite as good but has still played really solid for the Blues, posting a save percentage of .906 and a GAA of 2.80 throughout St. Louis’ playoff run.

These two goalies finished the regular season with tremendous numbers. Binnington’s numbers have not been quite as great in the playoffs so far, but he has made the big time saves when necessary. Both goalies have been locked in a tight battle and both goalies will look to give their team an edge in Game 5 to push the other team to the brink of elimination.

Pick Overview

These two teams have been playing a tight series and I expect another good game on Friday night. The Blues have been the better team when it comes to five on five play, but Dallas has some advantages on special teams and in net to help even out the matchup. With this game shifting back to St. Louis, I believe that the Blues have a good chance to win.

BetOnline has St. Louis listed as a -141 against the money line, which implies that the Blues will win this game around 58.5 percent of the time. I like St. Louis to win this game, but there is not a lot of value in that pick. With two star goalies on each side of the ice, I believe that there is a lot of value in the over-under, which is listed at five. I am taking the under in this game.

My Pick
UNDER 5
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.