Happy Tuesday everyone!
My apologies for the lack of DraftKings NHL DFS Picks over the last week or so as the All-Star break combined with the birth of my son presented very little opportunity to get some picks out.
That said, I am back at it tonight to tackle this three-game Tuesday slate, so let’s get right to it and see if we can make ourselves some profits early in the week!
C – Claude Giroux (PHI) – $5,900 vs. NYR
Considering the three-game slate and the matchup Giroux has with the Rangers tonight, I believe this sub-$6K price to be a big discount on Giroux. The Rangers have actually been rather solid defensively on home ice this season where they’ve allowed just 2.67 goals against per game (9th), however they will be giving tonight’s start in goal to 22-year-old backup Alexander Georgiev. Georgiev has a 1.89 GAA and .931 Sv% on home ice this season, but those numbers come from a tiny four-start sample size. In a larger sample, Georgiev has posted a 3.43 GAA and .895 Sv% in 13 starts and 16 appearances in the NHL and also a brutal 3.66 GAA and .883 Sv% in 11 AHL games to boot. This makes Giroux’s matchup all the more favorable has he enters this one tonight with 14 goals and 52 points in 49 games while he’s also fired 143 shots on goal. He’s the teams top center at even strength and on the power play and wil anchor an offense that’s averaged 4.75 goals per game over their last four.
C – Mika Zibanejad (NYR) – $6,600 vs. PHI
The scenario is very much the same for the Flyers as it is the Rangers tonight. Like New York, the Flyers will also be starting their backup goaltender tonight as 25-year-old Anthony Stolarz will be summoned from an AHL conditioning stint to make his first NHL appearance since December 15th in place of Carter Hart who got the win last night against the Jets. Like Georgiev above, Stolarz has struggled in both the NHL and AHL this season. In the NHL, he owns a brutal 3.90 GAA and .880 Sv% across seven starts and nine appearances. In the AHL, he has posted a 3.58 GAA and .901 Sv% across five appearances. This could make life real good for Zibanejad who enters this one with 17 goals and 44 points in 48 games to go along with 139 shots on goal. Look for the 25-year-old Swede to take advantage of a Flyers penalty kill that ranks 26th with a 75.9% rate on the road this season considering he has six goals and 16 points on the man advantage this season.
W – James van Riemsdyk (PHI) – $5,000 vs. NYR
His return to Philly didn’t go as planned early on as a long-term injury combined with a lack of production was one of the many reasons why the Flyers stumbled so hard in the season’s first half. However, the 36-goal man from last season has picked it up in a big way of late. van Riemsdyk has scored seven goals over his last six games including one in last night’s game to stay hot coming out of the break. The offensive surge has van Riemsdyk skating alongside Giroux on the Flyers’ top line as well as their top power play unit where he’s scored two of his eight January tallies. The Middletown, New Jersey native isn’t shooting the puck as much this season as he has in the past, but his spot on the top line and top power play unit will produce better quality shots rather than quantity, which is evidenced by his 18.1% shooting percentage this season, well above his career high of 11.8%. We can expect regression at some point, but I want him in this stack while he’s white-hot.
W – Wayne Simmonds (PHI) – $4,300 vs. NYR
We’re going to hear Simmonds’ name a lot in trade rumors over the next month, but for now Simmonds remains a Flyer and he will remain on the top power play unit tonight where he will form a three-man stack with Giroux and van Riemsdyk. The thought of Simmonds having a down year need sot be taken with a grain of salt as the 30-year-old still has 15 goals on the season to go along with 113 shots. His 15 goals in 49 games puts him on pace for pace for 25 goals across a full 82-game season, so this is still very much a productive player. Simmonds has potted two goals and notched two assists over his last four games while he has two points in two games against his Metropolitan Division rival Rangers this season. At this cost and as part of the Flyers’ top power play unit against a vulnerable goaltender, I’ll take Simmonds and look to extract some value out of him tonight.
W – Chris Kreider (NYR) – $5,800 vs. PHI
Kreider is quietly having a big season for the Rangers, so much so that we will also hear his name in trade rumors moving forward despite having another year on his contract after this one. Entering tonight’s contest, the power forward has tallied 22 goals and added 15 assists for 37 points in 48 games this season. The 37 points matches his total from last season in 10 fewer games while he is on pace to set a new career-high in goals with those 22 tucks putting him on pace for a whopping 38 goals this season which would blow by his previous career-high of 28 set in the 2016-17 season. He’s been a beast on home ice where he’s tallied 11 goals and 21 points in 24 games while he has two goals and three helpers over his last four games. He will skate alongside Zibanejad at even strength and on the top power play unit tonight and I expect notable production from this duo this evening.
D – Kevin Shattenkirk (NYR) – $4,600 vs. PHI
With young blueliner Neal Pionk sidelined at the moment, it will be Shattenkirk who takes over as the lone defenseman on the Rangers’ top power play unit this evening, giving us a three-man stack at both even strength and on the man advantage. The American blueliner has fallen on hard times in his Rangers tenure to this point, both from a health and production standpoint. Shattenkirk was limited to just 46 games a season ago, but still produced a decent 23 points, albeit below his previous career standards. This season, his role has been reduced by new head coach David Quinn to the point where he’s averaging only 18:39 of ice time per game and has just 14 points in 40 games. With all that in mind, Shattenkirk will take on the league’s 25th-ranked road defense tonight and the league’s 26th-ranked road penalty kill, so there is certainly an opportunity, especially given his role as the PP1 defenseman. I will look for him to continue a hot stretch where he posted three points in his final four pre All-Star games this evening.
D – Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) – $4,800 vs. CLS
In a move that I believe could have us ducking some ownership tonight, I am going to roll out a Sabres mini-stack and leave the Blue Jackets, Bruins and Jets alone on this slate tonight. Dahlin and the Sabres will take on a Blue Jackets team that has been rather porous defensively on home ice this season as their 3.08 goals against per game at home ranks 24th in the league. It’s been a very, very good rookie season for the 18-year-old Dahlin as he has tallied five goals and 26 points in 48 games this season, giving Sabres a scratch of the surface of what he could turn into down the road considering how hard it is for young defenseman to produce offense in this league, little own 18-year-old defensemen. Dahlin also entered the All-Star break red-hot as he tallied a goal and five helpers across his last six games and even logged more than 25 minutes in his final game prior to the All-Star break. Dahlin could be had at a reasonable level of ownerships for GPPs tonight.
G – Connor Hellebuyck (WPG) – $7,600 vs. BOS
This is a risky play considering the Jets are +155 underdogs in Boston tonight, but I don’t see much safety at all in goal tonight, so I am going to roll with the upset this evening. After all, the Jets sit in the top spot in the Central Division with 64 points on the season, five points superior to the Bruins’ 59. I also like the fact that Hellebuyck’s splits have held tough on the road where he’s posted a .910 save percentage on the season, equal to his mark at home. The Jets are catching the Bruins at a decent time despite the break as Boston has dropped three of their last four and four of their last six games. They have also lost three of their last four games at home. While the Bruins are one of the league’s better home offenses, the Jets are the league’s 10th-ranked road defense, so I am looking for an upset at the TD Garden tonight and plenty of value from Hellebuyck as a result.
UTIL – Sam Reinhart (BUF) – $5,400 vs. CLS
Reinhart fits in this lineup perfect at the end as he forms a mini-stack with Dahlin. Reinhart won’t skate on the same power play unit as Dahlin, but he does give us exposure to both units as he skates on the top unit where Dahlin rests on the second group, as per projections. Reinhart is coming into his own this season as he’s notched 44 points in 48 games this season and is approaching his career-high of 50 points set just last season. His 44 points this season puts him on pace for 75 points over a full 82-game schedule. Of course, skating alongside Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner in all situations is a favorable spot to be in the Sabres’ lineup and there’s no reason why that chemistry can’t continue into this contest tonight. Reinhart has a solid 20 points in 25 road games this season, so I’m looking for him and Dahlin to team up for perhaps some lower-owned production in this road contest tonight.