We hit with some of our DraftKings NHL DFS Picks last night, however the sum of the parts wasn’t enough to get us into the money.
We were dealt a bad break when it came to our three-man Penguins stack. Evgeni Malkin and Patric Hornqvist both notched an assist on the night, but Hornqvist left the game after just 3:17 of ice time after taking a puck to the face and didn’t return. That was a bad break, but it was also disappointing to see Malin and Dominik Simon combine for just one assist considering Pittsburgh scored five goals.
Our second three-man stack produced, although it was more of a mini-stack as Nicklas Backstrom missed the game with the illness that I referenced in yesterday’s piece. That said, T.J. Oshie scored a pair of goals on three shots while John Carlson tallied a pair of assists with three blocks.
Unfortunately, our Vegas mini-stack didn’t produce at all against the Rangers. Shea Theodore showed what kind of floor he brings with four shots and two blocks on the night, but Tomas Nosek recorded just a single shot on goal in the 4-2 Golden Knights win.
Finally, we got another fantastic performance from Matt Murray as the red-hot netminder turned aside 36 of 37 shots en route to his eighth consecutive win since coming back from injury.
Although some of our picks did well, I’ll look for some more consistency on tonight’s shortened three-game Wednesday night slate.
C – Ryan Johansen (NSH) – $4,800 vs. CHI
I went with Johansen and the Predators’ big boys in Toronto on Monday and although Nashville scored four goals, Johansen and co. were left off the scoresheet. Well, I’m going to give them another go tonight as the matchup becomes even more favorable on the road against the lowly Chicago Blackhawks. After surrendering four goals to Calgary on home ice Monday, the Blackhawks now sit 30th with 3.41 goals against per game on home ice this season while the Predators are tied for seventh with 3.14 goals per game on the road. As evidenced by his price, Johansen isn’t a high-floor player with only eight goals on 71 shots in 44 games, but he also has 28 assists and logs more than 19 and a half minutes of ice time per game. Both of his wingers are high-shot goal-scorers, so I’m simply looking for Johansen to do his job and distribute the puck to his linemates in hopes of racking up the assists in this one.
C – Alexander Kerfoot (COL) – $3,800 vs. CGY
He comes at a reasonable cost and considering how the Flames operate on home ice, I believe Kerfoot could deliver some value to this lineup. While Calgary ranks second in home offense this season, they also rank 29th in home defense, allowing 3.40 goals per game at the Saddledome this season. I’m also fond of the fact that the Avalanche are the league’s third-ranked road offense with 3.61 goals per game away from the Pepsi Center this season. In a lineup that is more aimed for GPPs than cash games, I will slide down to the second line for my Avalanche forward exposure tonight as Kerfoot is the center of that second line. He enters tonight’s contest with seven goals and 24 points in 39 games this season, although he has recorded just 55 shots in those 39 contests. Kerfoot will give us exposure to the Avalanche second unit power play this evening where he’s tallied a solid nine points this season. With three points over his last three games, I’m looking for some value out of the second-year player tonight.
W – Viktor Arvidsson (NSH) – $6,600 vs. CHI
Arvidsson missed the scoresheet Monday in Toronto, but he showed what kind of floor he can bring to the table as he fired five shots on goal as well. That gives the 25-year-old Swede 18 shots over his last four games, and he still has three goals in that span and four goals over his last five games. He has skated in only 20 games this season as he missed significant time with an injury, but Arvidsson has still notched 12 goals in those 20 games to go along with 63 shots, more than three shots per game. Arvidsson lines up on the Predators’ top line alongside Johansen while he will also flank the centerman on the Preds’ top power play unit as well. The Blackhawks rank 25th with a 74.2% rate on the penalty kill on home ice this season, so look for the Preds’ power play to do some damage in this one tonight.
W – Filip Forsberg (NSH) – $6,100 vs. CHI
I’m excited about this guy’s upside at what I believe to be a fantastic price in a super-favorable matchup. Forsberg missed 17 games with a hand injury and has last played on November 29th before returning for the Preds’ 4-0 win in Toronto on Monday. He was held off the scoresheet, but still fired three shots on goal in his 13:54 of ice time. The low ice total was anticipated given his long layoff, but he will be closer to a full workload in this one tonight. Forsberg enters this one with 14 goals and 22 points across 27 games this year, but his floor is increased by the 89 shots in those 27 games, good for 3.3 shots per game. The 24-year-old tends to score his goals in bunches, and I’m looking for that to get kick started tonight in what I believe is the best matchup on the slate.
W – J.T. Compher (COL) – $4,800 vs. CGY
Step two of our three-man Avalanche stack is Compher who will line up alongside Kerfoot on the Avs’ second line for this one tonight. What’s more is the fact that Compher skates on Colorado’s top power play unit alongside the likes of Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen where he will form a mini-stack with one of our defensemen tonight. Compher is enjoying a quality season with 10 goals and 18 points in 27 games. He actually skates in all situations for head coach Jared Bednar as he has three goals and seven points on the power play but has also netted two short-handed goals this season. The 23-year-old certainly has the trust of his head coach given his usage in all situations, and he has my trust to produce some offense tonight against a team that allowed plenty of it on home ice.
D – Tyson Barrie (COL) – $5,300 vs. CGY
We have completed our second three-man stack of the lineup tonight as Barrie will line up alongside Compher on the Avs’ top power play unit while forming a three-man stack with Kerfoot and Compher at even strength. He’s still one of the more underrated blueliners in the league as he’s tallied 32 points in 39 games this season after scoring 14 goals and tallying 57 points in 68 games last season. I still think there are more goals to come from Barrie as he’s tallied just five this season despite taking 101 shots, equalling out to a 5% shooting percentage. His career shooting percentage, however, sits at 7% which has me thinking more puck luck could be on the way for the 27-year-old. He’s scored at least 12 goals in four of his previous five seasons, so there’s no reason to think he won’t get there again this time around. He has a nice matchup tonight to do so given the Flames’ poor home defense and the Avalanche’s excellent road offense.
D – T.J. Brodie (CGY) – $3,600 vs. COL
Brodie no longer skates on either of the Flames’ power play units, but he still has a nice offensive skill set as he kicks off a mini-stack tonight against the Avs. It’s a tough back-to-back for the Avalanche tonight as they were pumped 7-4 by the Jets in Winnipeg last night. It was the second time in the last three games Colorado had allowed more than five goals, and it will be Semyon Varlamov getting the nod tonight, a goaltender that posted a brutal .874 Sv% in December and has allowed at least three goals against in each of his last seven starts. Entering play tonight, Brodie has five goals and 16 points in 44 games this season, although he doesn’t bring a high floor given the low shot total of 59 shots in those 44 contests. He comes at a cheap price against a struggling goaltender and defense, so I like the value upside at relatively low ownership tonight.
G – Pekka Rinne (NSH) – $8,300 vs. CHI
After posting a shutout in Toronto to snap an uncharacteristically poor stretch for the defending Vezina Trophy winner, I would look out for a torrid stretch from Rinne moving forward. He certainly has a nice matchup tonight in Chicago where the Predators are listed as -190 favorites to win according to Bovada. The Blackhawks rank 24th in home offense with 2.91 goals per game at the United Center, and the Preds are also tied for seventh with just 2.82 goals against per game on the road this season. Rinne has been a little bit better on home ice this season, but he has also posted a 2.50 GAA and .920 Sv% in 15 road appearances this season, so I’m not about to argue with that. The Predators as a team have won four of their last five after stumbling down the stretch in 2018, and I want to take advantage of that tonight by rostering the safest netminder on this three-game slate.
UTIL – Matthew Tkachuk (CGY) – $6,500 vs. COL
I love me some Matthew Tkachuk on home ice. The talented youngster has absolutely dominated at home this season, scoring 12 goals and adding 21 helpers for 33 points in just 20 home games this season. He’s also fired 49 shots on goal in those 20 home contests. While Tkachuk is only going to form an even strength mini-stack with Brodie, he will obviously maintain his spot on the Flames’ top power play unit where he has tallied eight goals and 11 assists this season. Overall on the season, Tkachuk has tallied 19 goals, 50 points and 105 shots on goal. The 21-year-old is setting himself up for a big-time contract as he hits RFA status this summer, but for tonight, I am once again loving his upside for a Flames offense that has been lethal at home this season.