Welcome to a fresh week of DraftKings NHL DFS!
This Monday main slate brings is a heavier load than we are used to seeing on a Monday night. We have nine-games on tap and some exploitable matchups that I want to use to get our week started on the right note.
I’m coming off what what a very poor week last week, but I feel good about turning things around as we get deep into the month of November.
C – Vincent Trocheck (FLA) – $6,000 vs. OTT
The Senators have played some very high-scoring games on home ice this season due to the fact they have been both leaky on defense and potent on offense. I think that story continues tonight against Trocheck and the Panthers while player himself is due for some serious positive regression in the goal-scoring department. Coming off a 31-goal, 287 shot season last year where he posted a 10.8% shooting percentage, Trocheck has just three goals on the season and a 6.1% shooting percentage on a solid 49 shots on goal. That 6.1% shooting clip also falls well under his 10.8% career rate. Trocheck has been productive on the road with two goals and eight points in 10 road contests on the season. He brought an excellent floor to the table last season and I expect him to get some more puck luck moving forward while the goals should start to pile up for the 25-year-old in short order this time around.
C – Tyler Bozak (STL) – $4,000 vs. LA
The Blues have been a real potent offense this season after upgrading their forward group in the offseason as they check in at seventh with 3.55 goals per game on home ice this season. Bozak has been enjoying his first season in St. Louis has he enters tonight’s contest with a healthy 11 points across 18 games on the season. The Kings haven’t been a good defense all year, however they will also be starting fourth-string netminder Cal Petersen for tonight’s game. Petersen was actually excellent in allowing just one goal in his first NHL start when we targeted him last Friday, however he allowed four goals in Nashville on Saturday and owns a brutal 4.29 GAA and .881 Sv% in 10 AHL games this season. Bozak lines up as the team’s second line center and gets top power play minutes to boot, so I believe there’s plenty of value to extract from the veteran pivot tonight.
W – Jonathan Huberdeau (FLA) – $5,800 vs. OTT
When you use the Panthers it’s always a choice of whether you want to go with Barkov and a winger or two from the top line or Trocheck and either Huberdeau or Bjugstad on the second line. For cost reasons, I am rolling out the second line who form a stack at both even strength and on the top power play unit. Huberdeau has been productive to the tune of 15 points in 17 games on the season, albeit he has just four goals himself, but three of those have come on that top power play unit while six of his 15 points have also come with the man advantage. He’s been a consistent producer this season as he has seven points in eight November contests with two multi-point efforts in that time. I could see that number increasing to three tonight against a Senators club that ranks in a 24th-place tie with 3.25 goals against per game at home.
W – Brayden Schenn (STL) – $5,300 vs. LA
Schenn has been moved to the wing lately to gives the Blues plenty of firepower in their top six forward group, however he will not only skate at even strength with Bozak but also alongside his center on the Blues’ top power play unit, a nice spot to be considering the Blues rank seventh in both home offense and home power play percentage as well, the latter of which sits at 26.8%. Schenn enters tonight’s contest with four goals and 10 points in 14 games on the season coming off a big year a season ago where he posted 28 goals and 70 points in 82 games. The 2009 first-round pick is actually facing his former team tonight on home ice, but given the goaltending and defensive situation for the Kings, I think that Schenn brings a rather high ceiling into play tonight.
W – Brady Tkachuk (OTT) – $5,900 vs. FLA
Given how Ottawa is surprisingly ranked fourth with 3.83 goals per game on home ice this season, I believe the Senators can get a few passed Roberto Luongo despite how good he’s been this season. For his part, Brady Tkachuk is showing why the Senators were right to take him with the fourth overall pick in this past draft. The 19-year-old has five goals and nine points in nine games this season. Furthermore, he actually has nine points in eight games as he went scoreless in his NHL debut. He isn’t logging a ton of ice time at the moment with an average of 14:35 on the season, but he is starting to see more power play time while he skates on the top unit these days with the Sens’ big boys. His ice time should be on a steady rise while he brings plenty of upside to the table part of a potent Senators offensive attack tonight.
D – Keith Yandle (FLA) – $5,800 vs. OTT
We have completed the first three-man stack of our lineup tonight with the addition of Yandle. The veteran blueliner is enjoying another quality season with the Panthers as he’ll enter play with four goals and 16 points in 17 games on the season to go along with 46 shots on goal. Yandle has been a beast as the lone blueliner on the Panthers’ top power play unit where he forms a stack with Trocheck and Huberdeau above. Three of his four goals and nine of his 16 points have indeed come on the power play. The Sens have been brutal on the penalty kill at home to the tune of a 73.2% rate, good for 24th on home ice. We get a nice floor and very high ceilings with this group in what I believe will be a high-scoring affair tonight in Canada’s capital.
D – Vince Dunn (STL) – $4,500 vs. LA
This Blues trio completes another three-man stack in this lineup and I feel real good about both of them. For the Blues, they get a very suspect defense and goaltender to face tonight while all three of these Blues players skate on the top power play unit together against a Kings team that ranks 24th with a 75% rate on the penalty kill away from home this season. The offensively-minded Dunn enters tonight’s contest with a solid three goals and eight points in 16 games on the season despite logging just 18:41 of average ice time. He doesn’t provide the same cross-category upside that his teammate Alex Pietrangelo does, however his spot as the only defenseman on the Blues’ top power play unit is why I want him in this stack. He has two goals and four points on the man advantage this season and I’ll look for him to keep producing tonight as part of a potent Blues home offense.
G – Frederik Andersen (TOR) – $7,900 vs. CLS
The Maple Leafs were labeled as a bad defensive team before the season and their play to start the season seemed to confirm that. However, they have been dynamite on the back end since the first couple weeks of the season as Toronto’s overall defense ranks fifth with just 2.55 goals per game on the season and sixth with just 2.40 goals against per game at home. Enter Andersen who has been stellar in throwing his name into the early Vezina Trophy hat. Andersen enters tonight’s contest sporting a stout 2.08 GAA and a .934 Sv% on the season, the latter of which stands at a whopping .959 across six November starts. Andersen allowed three goals in his most recent game, but allowed just three combined over his previous four games and that was the only time he has allowed that many in his last nine starts. His 11 wins are two clear of the league lead at this point and with the Maple Leafs favored at -130 odds in this one, I’ll look for him to stay rolling in this matchup against the Blue Jackets.
UTIL – Colin White (OTT) – $4,700 vs. FLA
Finishing off this lineup and our Sens mini-stack tonight is White who centers the second line alongside Tkachuk and Mark Stone. Although White doesn’t skate on the top power play unit with Stone and Tkachuk, he does give us exposure to both Senators units as he has a spot on the second group. The 21-year-old is enjoying a quality rookie year with six goals and 12 points in 20 games. Four of those six goals have come on the power play, so the exposure to the second unit appears to be to our advantage here where White has been very productive. He has a pair of multi-point efforts in the month of November to this point and with the Sens’ offense clicking on home ice, the former first-rounder can certainly team up with Tkachuk for some offense tonight.